ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cunxi Huang]

holy cow...the eye wall is so thick and crazy.

[WAcyclone]

This 100 frame loop is just insane...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=100&loop_speed_ms=42

[WeatherGuesser]

I live near Downtown Margate, about 1km east from the turnpike. It's a ranch style with foundation from 1989 and remodeled in 2010.

Even if you only get part of it, 100MPH+ winds for several hours has the potential to leave nothing but the foundation.

[KBBOCA]

Here is a somewhat clearer map of the Lesser Antilles islands.



The Islands most at risk of a direct hit based on the forecast:
Antigua, Barbuda, St. Barts, St. Martin, Anguilla, Aneguda

[jlauderdal]

What were the arguments for staying put that won out?

We have nowhere to evacuate to, my brother lives in Sarasota. However, it's not official, so we are going to have more of these as the situation becomes clear

If you have a car and a credit card, you have no excuse. Good luck to you if you stay.

max mayfield said definitely stay unless you are in a mandatory evacuation zone and those are for surge anyway

[gatorcane]

[Aric Dunn]

Been driving for few hours .. this hurricane is very impressive.. can only imagine after this next ERC is complete what will happen..

[psyclone]

Looks like the NHC continues to lean on the more western Euro solution for now. oh my

[meriland29]

Wow Nhc saying outter eyeball developing. Gonna get even bigger. Unreal

Well, possibly. NHC deems it a possible EWRC but does not mention that it will then enlarge.

[northjaxpro]

I think they make it 165kts at 5 even with no recent recon. It looks even better than it did an hour to two ago.

The 2100Z advisory is out, 160kt at 926mb. Makes sense that they'd hold steady until the recon arrives.

At this point, however, this might be one of the last recon flights I would hope. This looks higher than 165kts to me and flying even in winds that speed can send a plane into distress.

Agreed!

I can not fathom the turbulence the Recon crew are going through flying into that monster!! I have to think they can not risk the safety of the crew too much longer, although I very much appreciate their service to our country and going in on these missions to get this crucial data from these tropical cyclones!!

[Aric Dunn]

Wow Nhc saying outter eyeball developing. Gonna get even bigger. Unreal

Well, possibly. NHC deems it a possible EWRC but does not mention that it will then enlarge.

its pretty clear on radar.. but becasue that inner eyewall is soo intense. This ERC will take some time to complete.

the eye is sat has been contracting too. winds might be higher while the eye contracts.. craziness..

[SunnyThoughts]

Wow Nhc saying outter eyeball developing. Gonna get even bigger. Unreal

Well, possibly. NHC deems it a possible EWRC but does not mention that it will then enlarge.

Wind fields normally spread out after a Eric.

[gfsperpendicular]

Wow Nhc saying outter eyeball developing. Gonna get even bigger. Unreal

Well, possibly. NHC deems it a possible EWRC but does not mention that it will then enlarge.

its pretty clear on radar.. but becasue that inner eyewall is soo intense. This ERC will take some time to complete.

Hopefully that will weaken Irma somewhat.

[SunnyThoughts]

Wow Nhc saying outter eyeball developing. Gonna get even bigger. Unreal

Well, possibly. NHC deems it a possible EWRC but does not mention that it will then enlarge.[/quote
Wind fields normally spread out after an erc

[Langinbang187]

NHC has Irma weakening at a decent pace as the forecast goes on. So I guess that's better than maintaining.

[ronjon]

Been driving for few hours .. this hurricane is very impressive.. can only imagine after this next ERC is complete what will happen..

That short wave in the 12z GFS in Alabama at 120 hrs drops to the GOM and is driving the east coast track of Irma. Euro and GEM don't have it - instead they develop it further west and slower by a day. That's whats driving the track now days 5-6 between the two models.

[Aric Dunn]

recon is in the air.. and its a really short flight.. hopefully they are out there at peak intensity.

[Andy_L]

You can follow the flight on Flightradar24. They are at 14,000 feet and decending now

[gboudx]

This 100 frame loop is just insane...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=100&loop_speed_ms=42

One of DFW's local, former on-air mets commented on this image and the gravity waves emitting from the eye:

NASA's high-resolution satellite is capturing gravity waves rippling out from the central eye of Hurricane Irma. The amplitude of these waves is thought to have a direct correlation to the strength of the winds swirling around the cyclone center. In this case, Irma's winds are sustaining at 185 mph with gusts to 220 mph, and the gravity waves are very well defined.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Absolutely incredible. Have not been in the line of such a storm since 1990- Super Typhoon Flo while on Okinawa Japan. That was a killer and had 165 mph winds with gusts to 185. Of course most structures were built from reinforced concrete and they get about 6-8 typhoons a year there.

Hard to tell what that real rain rate is in the core, seems like Flo was actually almost 6 inches per hour.