ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Raebie]

I think they make it 165kts at 5 even with no recent recon. It looks even better than it did an hour to two ago.

The 2100Z advisory is out, 160kt at 926mb. Makes sense that they'd hold steady until the recon arrives.

At this point, however, this might be one of the last recon flights I would hope. This looks higher than 165kts to me and flying even in winds that speed can send a plane into distress.

You can't just stop recon. It's too important.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

- Hurricane Irma
By Martha Watkins Gilkes
Date: Tue, 5 Sep 2017 10:38:25 -0400

Nothing yet but sea getting rough at Half moon bay. Very very dangerous
storm ahead especially if the north turn does not happen. We will have the
eye over us and will get creamed on all sides. Only blessings is this is not
a huge hurricane like Luis was in 1995 but still damage will be major. We
will most likely have no communication for some time. They will turn off
the power island wide later in the day. Time to be determined. Airport
closing very soon. Last flights out this early afternoon. We pray for safety
and to survive this monster. I will post on http://www.stormcarib.com as long as I
can.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml

My heart and soul is with Antiqua and surrounds right now.

[tolakram]

Hi all,

just a reminder that S2K does operate a chatroom. It's a good place for rapid fire conversation that doesn't work too well here on the forums.

There are now 2 web based clients available to use. The easiest, in my opinion, is the client provided by our chatroom provider. Click on the link below, enter a unique user name, and press connect. EASY.

http://webchat.esper.net/?channels=storm2k


Mibbit is another good client but may require a modern browser. Click on the following link, enter a unique nickname and press go.

http://mibbit.com/?channel=%23Storm2k&server=irc.esper.net

If you have your own IRC based chat client you'll need to select the EsperNet server (irc.esper.net) and to join the channel (room):

Type:
/join #Storm2k for the main weather chat
/join #Storm2k_ot for the off topic room.

You can set it up to automatically enter the Storm2k channels, then you're just one click away from entering the chatrooms. You can also register your nickname if you'd like, but it's not necessary.

After you enter the room you will may get an automatic nickname. Please change your nick to your Storm2k username. To change it, use this format: /nick your name when you enter the room.
For example: /nick southerngale

[Michele B]

I live near Downtown Margate, about 1km east from the turnpike. It's a ranch style with foundation from 1989 and remodeled in 2010.

Even if you only get part of it, 100MPH+ winds for several hours has the potential to leave nothing but the foundation.

No. 100+ mph is doable (NOT 160+) if you have "buttoned up" the home with boards or shutters. The house may stand, but the roof is the weakest place at that point. If you lose shingles and rain can get into the home, it'll weaken everything else.

Downtown Margate is probably good. Only thing I would question is if there could be flooding.

The MOST IMPORTANT thing is to board up and secure your home as much as you can. If anyone in this storm's path does not board up or use shutters, you probably won't have a house left.

[Andy_L]

And as soon as I said that, it's no longer visible there

[Dougiefresh]

Here in Barbados, huge swells from Irma have sadly taken one of our young pro surfers Zander Venezia. He was surfing on the east coast of the island in a notoriously dangerous reef break in which a close out set caught him on the inside over the very shallow reef.

[Ken711]

The 2PM Sunday plot point in the cone looks just very slightly SW of the previous cone advisory.

[SkeetoBite]

This should help visualize the wind fields. Anguilla, the Antilles and Virgin Islands are in for a difficult 24 hours.

[BYG Jacob]

This is getting into Patricia territory.

[Aric Dunn]

PR is not out of the woods BTW all it takes is some wobbles and well then you know..

[dtwilkin]

We are in Mount Pleasant too. Up in the Park West area. We stayed for Hugo and were in Harborgate then.
You take it a day at a time and cherish your family. Life rebuilds but it definitely is a life altering experience. I've already got our plan in mind and have cautiously booked a couple rooms out of town that I can cancel. We are praying for the out to sea forecast but it sure seems like that window is closing. We should know a lot more by Tuesday after all the recon data come in.

The only thing I'm not sure about is whether I would need to board up windows if it looks like a landfall here

I'm in Park West as well. I'm debating the same thing. I have a trampoline and a playground in the back yard and took the trampoline net down with Matthew as well as the swings to the playset. I tied the trampoline bottom rails to a huge tree we have in the backyard that I just can't envision it being taken out. I'm not sure if I can do all that with this one and I fear that playset might go airborne or our wood fence might have pieces that do as well. I've never boarded a window in my life either.

Another Park West resident here! We were not here for Hugo or the threat of Floyd so this is very scary stuff. Even if we just get a ton of rain from it, we are so waterlogged here that we can't handle any more rain!

[norva]

It's much closer to Cuba now on the NHC track

[EquusStorm]

Ugg... had really been hoping this would go just far enough north to put the Leewards and the Virgin Islands on the south side but looks now like it's going to plow straight through. It's a sickening feeling. I wish this were sitting somewhere away from land because it's a fascinating storm but it is going to affect a lot of people at its current jaw dropping intensity in only a matter of hours.

I think recon may catch it at a perfect time. I would ordinarily say its peak, but as it's blowing past records at frightening speed, who knows... It could get stronger. Hope not. Unbelievable to think the seemingly outrageous pressures modeled by the GFS for a few days from now are actually pretty close to what would be expected for the actual wind speeds we have right now.

[MetroMike]

The 2PM Sunday plot point in the cone looks just very slightly SW of the previous cone advisory.

Just about the same as 11am that showed it there at 8am Sun

[BucMan2]

Good afternoon Aric-

Wanted your opinions on the model developments for the day. Being on the west coast of Fl wanted to get your thoughts on the two model
camps and what you think may eventually happen-

[KBBOCA]

Here in Barbados, huge swells from Irma have sadly taken one of our young pro surfers Zander Venezia. He was surfing on the east coast of the island in a notoriously dangerous reef break in which a close out set caught him on the inside over the very shallow reef.

And the center of Irma is 280 miles from Barbados.... Just serves to remind us that the effects can impact people FAR from the center. Tragic news

[tolakram]

SLIDER 1min

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=863&y=1043&z=1&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Blown Away]

INIT 05/1500Z 16.8N 58.4W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 17.2N 60.3W 155 KT 180 MPH

At 5pm Irma was at 17.1/59.8 moving 14 mph... NHC 11am predicted Irma to be at 17.2N/60.3W at 00z, Irma has 3 hrs before 00z and at 14 mph she should reach near 17.2N and @60.5W... So in just 12 hours Irma appears to be moving faster and just R than the 11am forecast...

[KBBOCA]

This should help visualize the wind fields. Anguilla, the Antilles and Virgin Islands are in for a difficult 24 hours.

Skeetobite, I'm so glad you're still doing these graphics. I find them so helpful. I've followed your site for MANY years. Much appreciated,

[tolakram]