ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

The 2PM Sunday plot point in the cone looks just very slightly SW of the previous cone advisory.

Just about the same as 11am that showed it there at 8am Sun

Yes essentially just off the Keys.

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KWBC 052115
NOAA2 1011A IRMA HDOB 04 20170905
210530 1518N 05827W 6958 03179 0053 +104 +057 202035 035 028 001 00
210600 1520N 05826W 6958 03180 0060 +099 +064 205036 037 028 001 03
210630 1522N 05825W 6957 03181 0054 +103 +062 207037 038 025 001 00
210700 1525N 05825W 6958 03177 0049 +106 +061 208039 040 023 001 00
210730 1527N 05825W 6967 03169 0052 +105 +062 205040 041 028 003 00
210800 1530N 05824W 6971 03159 0049 +104 +084 200039 040 029 007 00
210830 1532N 05824W 6957 03180 0046 +107 +065 199039 039 027 002 00
210900 1534N 05823W 6998 03132 0043 +112 +062 196039 040 028 002 00
210930 1537N 05823W 6968 03166 0042 +112 +059 193041 042 028 002 03
211000 1538N 05825W 6955 03183 0044 +109 +075 198040 041 027 002 00
211030 1540N 05827W 6965 03170 0040 +109 +079 201042 044 028 001 00
211100 1541N 05828W 6986 03138 0040 +110 +078 196042 043 028 001 00
211130 1543N 05830W 6969 03160 0042 +106 +083 195044 044 029 001 00
211200 1544N 05832W 6953 03178 0038 +107 +079 196043 044 030 001 00
211230 1546N 05833W 6970 03153 0032 +111 +081 199045 046 029 001 00
211300 1548N 05835W 6967 03160 0031 +111 +073 199047 048 030 001 00
211330 1549N 05837W 6968 03156 0030 +112 +069 200048 048 032 001 00
211400 1551N 05838W 6969 03153 0028 +111 +078 198045 047 032 001 00
211430 1552N 05840W 6969 03153 0034 +105 +086 199045 047 033 001 00
211500 1554N 05842W 6968 03154 0027 +110 +087 199046 046 032 001 00

[Aric Dunn]

Good afternoon Aric-

Wanted your opinions on the model developments for the day. Being on the west coast of Fl wanted to get your thoughts on the two model
camps and what you think may eventually happens

I think its a distinct possibility of getting into the gulf. the models that have more land interaction may be slower and sharper turn because of it. those that don't and are slightly further north make it a little farther west.

we also have to worry about pumping up the ridge from the hurricane any extra sliver of ridging will get it farther west.

its still too early.. but I would be prepared regardless.

[SkeetoBite]

This should help visualize the wind fields. Anguilla, the Antilles and Virgin Islands are in for a difficult 24 hours.

Skeetobite, I'm so glad you're still doing these graphics. I find them so helpful. I've followed your site for MANY years. Much appreciated,

Thanks. I'm not really involved with it anymore. But my old partner recently asked me to come back and work on new products, etc. We'll see...

[meriland29]

If it becomes far too dangerous for recon to fly into the storm, is there a secondary way for us to get pinpointed info on the storms strength?

[utweather]

Good afternoon Aric-

Wanted your opinions on the model developments for the day. Being on the west coast of Fl wanted to get your thoughts on the two model
camps and what you think may eventually happen-

I'm not Aric, but it looks like its coming down to the UKMET which levels Cuba and the GFS which takes out Florida. Need some professional meteorologists to weigh in please.

[tolakram]

Here's the IR version

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=863&y=1043&z=1&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

19:23z

[Blown Away]

Sun setting...

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 052122
NOAA9 0911A IRMA HDOB 24 20170905
211230 2948N 06726W 1537 14041 0594 -663 //// 233033 033 /// /// 05
211300 2945N 06728W 1538 14040 0595 -663 //// 229031 031 /// /// 05
211330 2942N 06729W 1538 14040 0595 -662 //// 224030 030 /// /// 05
211400 2939N 06730W 1538 14040 0596 -661 //// 217029 030 /// /// 05
211430 2935N 06730W 1537 14044 0598 -657 //// 211029 029 /// /// 05
211500 2932N 06730W 1537 14044 0598 -658 //// 209030 031 /// /// 05
211530 2929N 06730W 1538 14043 0600 -659 //// 212028 029 /// /// 05
211600 2925N 06730W 1539 14043 0601 -657 //// 211027 027 /// /// 05
211630 2922N 06730W 1539 14042 0602 -656 //// 213026 026 /// /// 05
211700 2918N 06730W 1539 14044 0603 -655 //// 216026 026 /// /// 05
211730 2915N 06730W 1538 14048 0602 -657 //// 216026 027 /// /// 05
211800 2911N 06730W 1538 14048 0603 -657 //// 213029 029 /// /// 05
211830 2908N 06730W 1538 14049 0603 -659 //// 216029 029 /// /// 05
211900 2904N 06730W 1538 14047 0604 -658 //// 216028 028 /// /// 05
211930 2901N 06730W 1538 14049 0605 -659 //// 217027 028 /// /// 05
212000 2858N 06730W 1539 14046 0607 -658 //// 221027 029 /// /// 05
212030 2854N 06730W 1538 14052 0607 -659 //// 216030 030 /// /// 05
212100 2851N 06730W 1537 14052 0606 -659 //// 217029 030 /// /// 05
212130 2847N 06730W 1538 14051 0607 -659 //// 218029 029 /// /// 05
212200 2844N 06729W 1538 14051 0608 -661 //// 217027 028 /// /// 05

[jlauderdal]

If you have a car and a credit card, you have no excuse. Good luck to you if you stay.

max mayfield said definitely stay unless you are in a mandatory evacuation zone and those are for surge anyway

So when max says run, the roads will be jammed and gas will be harder to find..if you can go the time is now. Safe vs sorry IMO.

if you go, do it by tomorrow otherwise stay unless of course you are in a mandatory then leave

[WeatherGuesser]

If the current 5 day track holds true, it will either go into the Gulf or rake back across FL, neither of which is a good option.

[Sciencerocks]

#Raw data from hurricane reconnaissance aircraft, courtesy of the
#National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
#For instructions on how to read the data, view:
#http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/NHC_recon_guide.pdf

203530 1304N 05931W 9775 00275 0084 +269 +237 230022 023 /// /// 03
203600 1303N 05932W 9548 00486 0085 +251 +235 227021 022 /// /// 03
203630 1304N 05934W 9305 00705 0084 +231 +228 227022 023 /// /// 03
203700 1306N 05934W 8970 01031 0084 +216 +200 232025 025 /// /// 03
203730 1308N 05933W 8632 01365 0084 +198 +149 240026 027 /// /// 03
203800 1310N 05931W 8423 01570 0082 +183 +141 240027 028 /// /// 03
203830 1312N 05930W 8230 01768 0079 +174 +133 244026 028 /// /// 03
203900 1314N 05929W 7915 02105 0081 +158 +098 247023 023 /// /// 03
203930 1316N 05928W 7623 02424 0079 +144 +055 241022 022 /// /// 03
204000 1318N 05927W 7382 02696 0072 +132 +050 248020 021 /// /// 03
204030 1320N 05927W 7249 02841 0066 +128 +026 257020 021 019 001 00
204100 1322N 05926W 7043 03090 0062 +118 +011 244019 021 021 001 00
204130 1324N 05925W 6842 03331 0054 +105 +041 236017 017 021 000 00
204200 1326N 05924W 6704 03502 0054 +092 +057 246018 019 022 000 00
204230 1328N 05923W 6509 03746 0047 +085 +031 229016 016 021 000 00
204300 1330N 05922W 6341 03964 0044 +074 +016 237017 018 020 001 00
204330 1332N 05921W 6173 04185 0036 +066 -004 241017 017 022 000 00
204400 1334N 05921W 6113 04260 0036 +060 -010 239016 017 019 001 00
204430 1336N 05920W 6019 04388 0037 +052 -016 237015 016 021 000 00
204500 1339N 05919W 5896 04558 0043 +039 -043 224014 015 021 001 00
204530 1341N 05918W 5798 04697 0049 +026 -036 218015 015 021 001 00
204600 1343N 05917W 5723 04798 0042 +022 -044 221014 014 021 000 00
204630 1345N 05916W 5720 04797 0042 +020 -054 221014 014 022 000 00
204700 1348N 05915W 5718 04797 0035 +022 -049 219015 015 021 001 00
204730 1350N 05914W 5717 04796 0031 +022 -048 214016 016 022 000 00
204800 1353N 05913W 5716 04799 0032 +023 -054 217016 017 022 000 00
204830 1356N 05911W 5718 04793 0026 +026 -069 226018 018 022 001 00
204900 1358N 05910W 5717 04796 0025 +028 -101 224018 018 024 000 00
204930 1401N 05909W 5717 04796 0028 +026 -097 225018 019 024 001 00
205000 1404N 05908W 5718 04792 0030 +024 -088 225018 019 024 001 00
205030 1406N 05907W 5717 04795 0029 +025 -088 224018 019 023 001 00
205100 1409N 05906W 5717 04795 0028 +026 -097 222019 019 025 000 00
205130 1411N 05904W 5718 04794 0031 +024 -099 221019 019 026 000 00
205200 1414N 05903W 5717 04795 0031 +023 -076 220019 020 026 000 00
205230 1417N 05902W 5717 04794 0029 +024 -081 217021 021 024 001 00
205300 1419N 05900W 5718 04790 0033 +020 -062 217021 021 025 000 00
205330 1422N 05859W 5717 04794 0034 +019 -049 216021 021 026 001 00
205400 1424N 05857W 5718 04792 0035 +018 -047 214022 022 027 000 00
205430 1427N 05856W 5718 04793 0035 +018 -044 212022 023 027 000 00
205500 1429N 05854W 5718 04792 0032 +021 -059 214022 022 027 000 00
205530 1431N 05853W 5720 04789 0034 +020 -059 215022 022 028 000 00
205600 1434N 05851W 5720 04790 0035 +018 -046 221022 022 029 000 00
205630 1436N 05850W 5721 04788 0038 +015 -021 220024 024 028 001 00
205700 1438N 05848W 5719 04792 0039 +015 -020 220025 025 030 001 00
205730 1441N 05847W 5720 04788 0038 +016 -025 220026 026 031 001 00
205800 1443N 05845W 5721 04788 0036 +017 -026 220026 026 030 002 00
205830 1445N 05844W 5720 04788 0035 +017 -027 220026 026 030 002 00
205900 1447N 05842W 5720 04788 0037 +017 -047 219025 025 031 002 00
205930 1450N 05841W 5720 04787 0034 +018 -048 215026 026 032 001 00
210000 1452N 05840W 5720 04786 0034 +017 -048 215026 026 032 001 00
210030 1454N 05838W 5720 04785 0041 +013 -040 213026 026 034 001 00
210100 1457N 05837W 5738 04758 0040 +015 -032 208026 026 035 001 00
210130 1459N 05836W 5892 04541 0031 +030 -022 206025 025 034 002 00
210200 1502N 05834W 6049 04338 0029 +048 -001 208023 023 032 001 00
210230 1504N 05833W 6171 04175 0029 +061 +001 212023 023 033 001 03
210300 1506N 05832W 6386 03893 0026 +081 +012 204026 027 030 002 03
210330 1509N 05830W 6602 03619 0032 +092 +018 200032 035 029 002 03
210400 1511N 05829W 6721 03465 0043 +092 +042 200034 035 031 002 00
210430 1513N 05828W 6862 03292 0050 +098 +046 200034 036 029 002 00
210500 1516N 05827W 6951 03189 0049 +106 +054 200034 035 030 001 00
210530 1518N 05827W 6958 03179 0053 +104 +057 202035 035 028 001 00
210600 1520N 05826W 6958 03180 0060 +099 +064 205036 037 028 001 03
210630 1522N 05825W 6957 03181 0054 +103 +062 207037 038 025 001 00
210700 1525N 05825W 6958 03177 0049 +106 +061 208039 040 023 001 00
210730 1527N 05825W 6967 03169 0052 +105 +062 205040 041 028 003 00
210800 1530N 05824W 6971 03159 0049 +104 +084 200039 040 029 007 00
210830 1532N 05824W 6957 03180 0046 +107 +065 199039 039 027 002 00
210900 1534N 05823W 6998 03132 0043 +112 +062 196039 040 028 002 00
210930 1537N 05823W 6968 03166 0042 +112 +059 193041 042 028 002 03
211000 1538N 05825W 6955 03183 0044 +109 +075 198040 041 027 002 00
211030 1540N 05827W 6965 03170 0040 +109 +079 201042 044 028 001 00
211100 1541N 05828W 6986 03138 0040 +110 +078 196042 043 028 001 00
211130 1543N 05830W 6969 03160 0042 +106 +083 195044 044 029 001 00
211200 1544N 05832W 6953 03178 0038 +107 +079 196043 044 030 001 00
211230 1546N 05833W 6970 03153 0032 +111 +081 199045 046 029 001 00
211300 1548N 05835W 6967 03160 0031 +111 +073 199047 048 030 001 00
211330 1549N 05837W 6968 03156 0030 +112 +069 200048 048 032 001 00
211400 1551N 05838W 6969 03153 0028 +111 +078 198045 047 032 001 00
211430 1552N 05840W 6969 03153 0034 +105 +086 199045 047 033 001 00
211500 1554N 05842W 6968 03154 0027 +110 +087 199046 046 032 001 00
211530 1556N 05843W 6968 03152 0020 +115 +081 202047 048 033 001 00
211600 1557N 05845W 6967 03153 0016 +117 +074 205046 047 032 002 00
211630 1559N 05846W 6967 03150 0018 +115 +062 205046 046 033 001 00
211700 1600N 05848W 6966 03149 0023 +109 +063 205045 045 033 001 00
211730 1602N 05850W 6968 03145 0025 +105 +070 204044 044 034 002 00
211800 1604N 05851W 6968 03141 0020 +106 +066 203045 045 034 001 00
211830 1605N 05853W 6957 03150 0010 +110 +068 205045 046 033 002 03
211900 1606N 05855W 6963 03139 0008 +108 +076 202047 047 029 002 00
211930 1608N 05857W 6965 03135 0009 +105 +078 204046 046 028 002 00
212000 1609N 05858W 6952 03149 9998 +112 +072 211047 048 033 002 00
212030 1610N 05900W 6955 03141 9992 +111 +092 208043 044 035 004 00
212100 1611N 05902W 6959 03134 9995 +109 +086 204046 049 038 003 00
212130 1612N 05904W 6940 03153 9991 +106 +099 211052 055 037 006 00
212200 1614N 05906W 6953 03137 9991 +104 +102 211053 054 039 003 03
212230 1615N 05907W 6950 03141 9997 +099 +090 210051 051 041 002 00
212300 1617N 05909W 6967 03119 9985 +111 +086 210051 052 040 002 00
212330 1619N 05910W 6961 03123 9977 +118 +059 213052 053 041 001 00
212400 1620N 05912W 6963 03120 9980 +114 +060 214055 057 040 002 00
212430 1622N 05913W 6963 03117 9973 +115 +059 218058 059 040 002 00
212500 1624N 05914W 6963 03111 9969 +115 +063 212059 060 039 002 00

[rockyman]

Good afternoon Aric-

Wanted your opinions on the model developments for the day. Being on the west coast of Fl wanted to get your thoughts on the two model
camps and what you think may eventually happens

I think its a distinct possibility of getting into the gulf. the models that have more land interaction may be slower and sharper turn because of it. those that don't and are slightly further north make it a little farther west.

we also have to worry about pumping up the ridge from the hurricane any extra sliver of ridging will get it farther west.

its still too early.. but I would be prepared regardless.

At 5pm, the met on CNN mentioned "coastal Mississippi and Alabama" as possibilities, along with, of course, west coast of Florida, and east coast of Florida. He said he thought the window for "out to sea" had closed.

[Aric Dunn]

last image on radar is crazy intense.. recon will sample it shortly http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... site=Sabre

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 052125
NOAA2 1011A IRMA HDOB 05 20170905
211530 1556N 05843W 6968 03152 0020 +115 +081 202047 048 033 001 00
211600 1557N 05845W 6967 03153 0016 +117 +074 205046 047 032 002 00
211630 1559N 05846W 6967 03150 0018 +115 +062 205046 046 033 001 00
211700 1600N 05848W 6966 03149 0023 +109 +063 205045 045 033 001 00
211730 1602N 05850W 6968 03145 0025 +105 +070 204044 044 034 002 00
211800 1604N 05851W 6968 03141 0020 +106 +066 203045 045 034 001 00
211830 1605N 05853W 6957 03150 0010 +110 +068 205045 046 033 002 03
211900 1606N 05855W 6963 03139 0008 +108 +076 202047 047 029 002 00
211930 1608N 05857W 6965 03135 0009 +105 +078 204046 046 028 002 00
212000 1609N 05858W 6952 03149 9998 +112 +072 211047 048 033 002 00
212030 1610N 05900W 6955 03141 9992 +111 +092 208043 044 035 004 00
212100 1611N 05902W 6959 03134 9995 +109 +086 204046 049 038 003 00
212130 1612N 05904W 6940 03153 9991 +106 +099 211052 055 037 006 00
212200 1614N 05906W 6953 03137 9991 +104 +102 211053 054 039 003 03
212230 1615N 05907W 6950 03141 9997 +099 +090 210051 051 041 002 00
212300 1617N 05909W 6967 03119 9985 +111 +086 210051 052 040 002 00
212330 1619N 05910W 6961 03123 9977 +118 +059 213052 053 041 001 00
212400 1620N 05912W 6963 03120 9980 +114 +060 214055 057 040 002 00
212430 1622N 05913W 6963 03117 9973 +115 +059 218058 059 040 002 00
212500 1624N 05914W 6963 03111 9969 +115 +063 212059 060 039 002 00

[Category6]

Why does the NHC forecast weaken it from the current 185 to 140? Is it due to Irma being close to land, thus impeding outflow? The SST's are actually even HIGHER in the straits than the current area the storm is in.

[Andy_L]

I think NOAA9 is the Gulfstream flying a Synoptic flight as well...

[KBBOCA]

last image on radar is crazy intense.. recon will sample it shortly http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... site=Sabre

I just can't imagine - truly can not - what it will be like on Antigua & Barbuda tonight... NO WORDS to express the horror I'm feeling for this situation,

[dizzyfish]

West coast Pasco county reporting in. On the way home today (I work in Tampa) I noted packed grocery store parking lots (some even parking in the grass), lines at most gasoline stations and very long lines at our local sandbag operation sites (I passed 2). Reliable reports of water out at most stores and a traffic jam getting into the Costco in North Tampa around 10 this morning. Just got a text from my cousin in Wauchula and she said the shelves are about bare there.

Folks are taking this very seriously, which I am glad to see. I've been tracking hurricanes for almost 50 years and this one is making me nervous.

We continue to pray for those who are and will be taking the brunt of Irma. I wish all of my friends here the best. I will report in when I can. Back to prep!

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like a pretty decent population on those islands as well.