ATL: IRMA - Models

[sma10]

Well that was an intricate run. Between both models we've seen a lot of different scenarios the past couple days - obviously a coin flip at this point. But this last euro really left 93L in a very bad position at the end.

[ColdMiser123]

0z Euro Day 10

[drezee]

0z Euro Day 10

From there the split retrogrades SW and the main trof lifts out. Ridge rebuilds and forces US landfall. Imo

[sma10]

0z Euro Day 10

From there the split retrogrades SW and the main trof lifts out. Ridge rebuilds and forces US landfall. Imo

Mind you that would be a 941 mb system, which is extraordinarily low for the euro, gently being ushered thru the bahamian and gulf stream waters, likely in an extremely favorable upper environment.

All weenie-ism aside, we should all probably agree to root against this solution. What gives me hope is that, with Harvey, everything all had to come together just right for a bad-case scenario to unfold. Surely, this won't occur again so soon?

[Blinhart]

0z Euro Day 10

From there the split retrogrades SW and the main trof lifts out. Ridge rebuilds and forces US landfall. Imo

Mind you that would be a 941 mb system, which is extraordinarily low for the euro, gently being ushered thru the bahamian and gulf stream waters, likely in an extremely favorable upper environment.

All weenie-ism aside, we should all probably agree to root against this solution. What gives me hope is that, with Harvey, everything all had to come together just right for a bad-case scenario to unfold. Surely, this won't occur again so soon?

Gustav/Ike, Katrina/Rita just 2 examples of having 2 very powerful storms hitting within a couple hundred miles of each other.

[sma10]

As an aside, the hurricane at day 10, as depicted, would likely be an amazing image, as I think the Euro is showing an incredibly large system.

[meriland29]

As an aside, the hurricane at day 10, as depicted, would likely be an amazing image, as I think the Euro is showing an incredibly large system.

If it is that large, it should take a long time to ramp up and for the speed to match the associated MB drop..on the flip side, if/once it gets to be a strong system it will also take a long time for it to go down in intensity..

[KWT]

Going to be a complex forecast with this one, models are not only having to deal with the WPAC system, but also the possiblity of another tropical system in the west Gulf and how it interacts with the upper trough digging down into the states in 144hrs time.

Out to 192hrs we've now got pretty decent agreement, beyond that and I suspect the models will start to diverge again in a big way and we will see many different solutions.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

50 models track spread, still much uncertainty this early with the split.

[KWT]

DTC, thanks for the ensemble update, very interesting spread with plenty of runs offshooting into the Atlantic, but probably the majority at least put 93L into a position that could ultimately threaten the USA.

[GCANE]

GFS 84 hrs out looks viable.
Strong 700mb Lagrangain OW (L1-32).
Clear 355K PV and ULL to the NW which will track with 93L.

What is that top pic? I have never seen it. Is L6-4 or L2-14 what will become the next storm that is suppose to hit the Tx/La Border in a week.

Sorry for late response. Went to Bed.

Top pic are the so call "Pouches" from NRL's Dr Montgomery. It shows the core vortex max.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms ... antic.html

http://96.127.43.56/global.php

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/Lag_ht ... ecmwf.html

http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/papers/Pub_135.pdf
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a554502.pdf

[otowntiger]

So...this looks to likely be a fish?

I'd say at this point 70-80% chance of it's out to sea. And I'd say that for any storm in this vicinity regardless of what the models were saying. Climatology and statistics weigh very heavy in a recurve's favor.

[KWT]

So...this looks to likely be a fish?

I'd say at this point 70-80% chance of it's out to sea. And I'd say that for any storm in this vicinity regardless of what the models were saying. Climatology and statistics weigh very heavy in a recurve's favor.

Hmmm if this heads due west I'd agree, however a bend WSW between 40-50W form what I Know really raises the odds of a US landfall, as basically this system gets down to near 17N by 55W.

If a system formed in that position, you'd say the landfall risk was far higher than you would for a system at 16N at 35W.

Anyway, 06z GFS will be out soon enough, wonder what it will do this time!

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Bermuda is likely under the pump and maybe a major C 3/4.

[KWT]

Bermuda is likely under the pump and maybe a major C 3/4.

That is certainly one of the paths, though nearly all models are at the moment suggesting a track WEST of Bermuda (I'd say looking at the ensemble map above 80% are west. So best case IMO is it curves up around 70-75W and out to sea, which is certainly plausible solution.

06z GFS well on its way, the run is once again dropping 93L WSW at a decent clip, down to 17N by 120hrs (and down to 998mbs as well)

[brghteys1216]

GFS coming in a bit stronger so far on the 06Z Run.

[jlauderdal]

Bermuda is likely under the pump and maybe a major C 3/4.

that little spec in the sea known as bermuda isnt likley under anything at this point except a big ridge of high pressure and partly cloudy skies.

[BobHarlem]

6z gfs is well north of the 0z (and euro) at 192 hours out.

[USTropics]

The 06z GFS run has taken a much more northern track so far compared to the 00z run (which some ensembles showed). The orientation of the Bermuda High is more NE to SW this run, but it looks like the first trough may be enough to pull this OTS or close to Bermuda:

[GCANE]

Latest GFS 144 hrs out, run-to-run appears to be building the STR.