ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Skogebo]

My parents live in Dothan, Alabama which is about 75 miles north of Panama City Beach on the panhandle. My dad has a brain tumor and wears a device called Opptune (tumor treating fields) that requires charging every 18 hours. I encouraged them to go out and get a generator today in case they lose power. All of the hardware stores there are completely sold out.

At least some people are taking this seriously. Either that or lots of people donated generators to Houston/Port Aransas. I live in San Antonio and a lot of people in other states brought entire 18 wheelers full of stuff like that.

Praying for everyone to be smart and safe.

[Extratropical94]

Center dropsonde: 920 mb / 9 kts

[Langinbang187]

Nope, the went SE to NW quadrant, the NE quadrant has been the strongest.

It's pretty unlikely the NE quad has winds much stronger than that though. Winds seem to be holding steady.

I would wager they are 20 mph or more higher..

I'll say around 15. Max winds still likely 185 MPH, maybe 190 if I had to gander. Hence the "winds seem to be holding steady"

[NDG]

Winds down to 150kts? Did they come through the strongest quad?

Nope, the went SE to NW quadrant, the NE quadrant has been the strongest.

It's pretty unlikely the NE quad has winds much stronger than that though. Winds seem to be holding steady.

Last recon mission that's where they continuously found the the strongest winds of 160 knots, in the NE quadrant while in the NW & SE quadrants was closer to 150 knots.

[O Town]

There are a lot of cruise ships still lingering in the area. I hope they know what they are doing.
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/cruiseships.phtml

Very cool link. Useful for me as well. My in laws and nephew are out on a 7 day Caribbean/Mexico cruise rn. I see they are in the middle of GOM. They obviously got re routed.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 052155
NOAA2 1011A IRMA HDOB 08 20170905
214530 1721N 06014W 6970 02884 9719 +117 //// 053126 131 090 015 01
214600 1723N 06015W 6993 02888 9748 +119 +118 049120 122 084 024 00
214630 1724N 06017W 6971 02936 9787 +110 +103 053118 120 081 015 00
214700 1725N 06018W 6968 02964 9808 +113 +108 055112 113 079 011 00
214730 1727N 06019W 6974 02967 9823 +113 +111 058109 109 077 008 00
214800 1728N 06021W 6964 03006 9850 +110 //// 059104 106 074 008 01
214830 1730N 06023W 6959 03026 9868 +112 //// 059093 098 071 007 01
214900 1732N 06024W 6957 03044 9891 +106 //// 056088 090 068 007 01
214930 1733N 06026W 6964 03053 9908 +103 //// 052086 088 066 011 01
215000 1735N 06027W 6949 03079 9927 +099 //// 050086 089 065 010 01
215030 1736N 06029W 6957 03079 9934 +102 //// 047082 085 063 014 05
215100 1737N 06030W 6956 03090 9938 +108 +107 047079 083 060 008 00
215130 1739N 06032W 6967 03087 9940 +116 +094 044072 073 058 005 00
215200 1740N 06033W 6968 03089 9948 +117 +079 045069 073 054 004 00
215230 1742N 06035W 6969 03093 9948 +122 +084 047065 067 052 005 00
215300 1743N 06036W 6971 03089 9948 +125 +072 049069 070 050 004 00
215330 1745N 06038W 6957 03113 9948 +127 +066 051069 069 046 005 00
215400 1746N 06039W 6957 03117 9955 +123 +068 056071 071 043 006 00
215430 1748N 06041W 6947 03131 9962 +118 +073 060073 074 042 007 00
215500 1749N 06043W 6956 03119 9962 +118 +072 062074 075 042 006 00

[fsusurfer]

In Destin, these slight west moves have me worrying a bit more. Gas stations here are already starting to ration gas..

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/905189515425394689

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052157
AF305 1111A IRMA HDOB 03 20170905
214830 1742N 06443W 9257 00758 0091 +223 +207 040020 021 /// /// 03
214900 1742N 06441W 8986 01019 0092 +213 +176 046022 023 /// /// 03
214930 1742N 06440W 8672 01324 0088 +193 +171 048025 026 /// /// 03
215000 1742N 06438W 8307 01698 0088 +178 +142 041022 025 /// /// 03
215030 1743N 06437W 8058 01971 0100 +170 +110 053024 024 /// /// 03
215100 1743N 06435W 7836 02211 0100 +156 +104 050023 024 /// /// 03
215130 1743N 06434W 7619 02448 0101 +143 +086 045022 023 /// /// 03
215200 1744N 06432W 7425 02669 0099 +135 +041 042022 023 /// /// 03
215230 1744N 06430W 7239 02881 0098 +121 +051 043021 022 /// /// 03
215300 1745N 06429W 7045 03111 0097 +113 +014 043021 022 /// /// 03
215330 1745N 06427W 6939 03240 0102 +102 +028 042023 023 /// /// 03
215400 1746N 06425W 6936 03244 0105 +103 -009 043021 023 /// /// 03
215430 1746N 06423W 6946 03234 0106 +104 -010 042019 020 /// /// 03
215500 1747N 06421W 6945 03236 0111 +102 -019 046018 019 /// /// 03
215530 1747N 06418W 6952 03230 0115 +102 -020 051018 019 /// /// 03
215600 1748N 06416W 6946 03239 0113 +102 +018 054019 019 /// /// 03
215630 1748N 06413W 6951 03233 0113 +100 +012 057020 021 /// /// 03
215700 1749N 06411W 6950 03234 0117 +096 +036 058021 022 /// /// 03
215730 1749N 06409W 6950 03235 0114 +099 +035 059024 024 /// /// 03
215800 1750N 06406W 6949 03235 0118 +094 +056 058024 024 /// /// 03
$$

[johngaltfla]

Most of water, propane tanks and gas are all out for now in Broward County.
Batteries out too, however new shipments to come every hour for water, according to Publix employees.

Huge line for gas stations stretch more than half a mile in some locations.

I've been waiting for propane for almost 2 hours now at an Exxon off of SR-84. They say it's coming.... but if it doesn't, they will have 125 ticked-off people to deal with.

EDIT: The propane gets here literally as I type this post.

Sarasota is in a similar situation. It's nuts here.

[Extratropical94]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/905189515425394689

The VDM also emphasizes that.

URNT12 KWBC 052157
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 05/21:38:37Z
B. 17 deg 04 min N
059 deg 54 min W
C. 700 mb 2399 m
D. 144 kt
E. 119 deg 9 nm
F. 223 deg 145 kt
G. 123 deg 11 nm
H. 920 mb
I. 10 C / 3062 m
J. 21 C / 3069 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO20-45
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 1011A IRMA OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 151 KT 313 / 17 NM 21:42:58Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 325 / 10 KTS

Concentric eyewalls with 20 and 45 nm diameter

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 052205
NOAA2 1011A IRMA HDOB 09 20170905
215530 1751N 06044W 6949 03132 9980 +107 +077 063072 072 039 004 00
215600 1752N 06046W 6950 03133 9989 +102 +074 064074 076 040 003 00
215630 1754N 06048W 6952 03134 9993 +101 +075 064075 076 040 003 00
215700 1755N 06049W 6952 03137 9999 +101 +076 064074 077 040 004 00
215730 1757N 06051W 6952 03140 0000 +102 +080 069073 074 041 004 00
215800 1759N 06052W 6949 03149 0001 +106 +071 069074 075 040 003 00
215830 1800N 06054W 6949 03152 0005 +107 +069 069071 072 041 002 00
215900 1802N 06056W 6948 03158 0000 +114 +066 069071 071 040 002 00
215930 1804N 06057W 6948 03160 0000 +117 +062 068070 070 039 002 00
220000 1805N 06059W 6952 03158 0002 +117 +062 070067 069 041 002 00
220030 1807N 06101W 6949 03164 0006 +117 +058 070064 066 040 002 00
220100 1809N 06103W 6948 03169 0010 +118 +054 071066 067 037 003 00
220130 1810N 06104W 6952 03166 0009 +120 +054 073067 068 036 001 00
220200 1812N 06106W 6950 03170 0012 +120 +050 073065 065 034 001 00
220230 1814N 06108W 6950 03171 0011 +123 +046 071062 063 033 001 00
220300 1815N 06109W 6951 03172 0014 +122 +046 072061 061 033 001 00
220330 1817N 06111W 6949 03178 0016 +122 +046 072061 061 032 001 00
220400 1819N 06113W 6949 03178 0021 +119 +050 072061 062 033 001 03
220430 1819N 06115W 6951 03176 0023 +117 +053 074063 064 032 001 03
220500 1817N 06117W 6949 03178 0027 +114 +054 071062 063 /// /// 03

[CrazyC83]

If structural changes are ongoing, the pressure could fall even as the winds decrease - the relationship isn't always perfect.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052207
AF305 1111A IRMA HDOB 04 20170905
215830 1750N 06404W 6949 03235 0122 +091 +061 058023 024 /// /// 03
215900 1751N 06402W 6952 03230 0121 +089 +071 056023 024 /// /// 03
215930 1751N 06400W 6955 03227 0121 +091 +053 056025 025 /// /// 03
220000 1752N 06357W 6941 03244 0121 +090 +053 053025 025 /// /// 03
220030 1752N 06355W 6943 03241 0121 +090 +055 054025 025 /// /// 03
220100 1753N 06353W 6949 03234 0118 +090 +051 053024 025 /// /// 03
220130 1753N 06351W 6946 03237 0117 +090 +050 052024 024 /// /// 03
220200 1754N 06349W 6947 03233 0116 +094 +051 051025 025 /// /// 03
220230 1754N 06347W 6947 03234 0115 +095 +052 051026 027 /// /// 03
220300 1755N 06344W 6947 03233 0113 +095 +053 052027 028 /// /// 03
220330 1755N 06342W 6944 03237 0112 +092 +053 052028 029 /// /// 03
220400 1756N 06340W 6948 03233 0116 +093 +051 051028 028 /// /// 03
220430 1756N 06338W 6947 03234 0115 +095 +053 050028 029 /// /// 03
220500 1757N 06336W 6949 03232 0111 +095 +049 050029 030 /// /// 03
220530 1757N 06334W 6947 03233 0111 +096 +040 048029 029 /// /// 03
220600 1758N 06332W 6947 03234 0116 +094 +034 048029 029 /// /// 03
220630 1758N 06329W 6947 03233 0108 +096 +028 051030 031 /// /// 03
220700 1758N 06327W 6947 03218 0100 +095 +029 048030 031 /// /// 03
220730 1759N 06325W 6982 03192 0100 +099 +029 045029 030 /// /// 03
220800 1759N 06323W 6973 03176 0084 +099 +031 045028 028 /// /// 03
$$

[Aric Dunn]

You can really see the eye starting to shrink on IR satellite ..

[lando]

If this gfs run verified and Florida was spared two years in a row from utter destruction that would be insane

[Sanibel]

Bailey's General Store has water on Sanibel...It was the only place I was able to find it...We're gassed-up and stocked...Still need a tarp...Lowe's sold out...Bailey's getting emergency shipment tomorrow...

[WAcyclone]

 https://twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/905190778351132672

[RL3AO]

wouldn't be surprised if Irma makes a run at sub-900 mb after the EWRC. Conditions look very favorable still.

[Extratropical94]

Dropsonde in SE eyewall, moved around to E part of the storm during the drop.