ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BYG Jacob]

An EWRC at this intensity is nuts.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052217
AF305 1111A IRMA HDOB 05 20170905
220830 1800N 06321W 6971 03178 0085 +095 +026 043030 031 /// /// 03
220900 1800N 06319W 6968 03176 0081 +096 +025 046033 033 /// /// 03
220930 1800N 06316W 6978 03167 0085 +099 +021 044033 033 /// /// 03
221000 1801N 06314W 6978 03175 0086 +099 +016 043034 034 /// /// 03
221030 1801N 06313W 6962 03189 0086 +095 +022 042033 034 /// /// 03
221100 1802N 06311W 6970 03179 0087 +095 +021 040032 033 /// /// 03
221130 1802N 06309W 6970 03181 0090 +092 +023 040033 034 /// /// 03
221200 1802N 06307W 6966 03176 0082 +093 +027 045037 040 /// /// 03
221230 1803N 06306W 6970 03178 0086 +091 +029 045037 038 /// /// 03
221300 1805N 06305W 6969 03180 0058 +090 +048 049035 038 /// /// 03
221330 1806N 06303W 6969 02924 9955 +085 +058 051043 047 /// /// 03
221400 1806N 06302W 6967 03178 0075 +091 +071 053046 047 /// /// 03
221430 1807N 06300W 6972 03180 0087 +093 +068 055046 047 /// /// 03
221500 1808N 06259W 6967 03179 0083 +095 +059 055047 048 /// /// 03
221530 1808N 06257W 6970 03180 0084 +096 +045 055048 048 /// /// 03
221600 1809N 06256W 6967 03182 0086 +093 +052 054045 047 /// /// 03
221630 1809N 06254W 6969 03179 0081 +098 +043 056046 047 /// /// 03
221700 1810N 06252W 6973 03172 0076 +100 +048 056046 047 /// /// 03
221730 1810N 06251W 6967 03182 0078 +099 +042 057045 045 /// /// 03
221800 1811N 06249W 6973 03174 0078 +098 +048 055043 045 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 052215
NOAA2 1011A IRMA HDOB 10 20170905
220530 1815N 06118W 6950 03177 0024 +116 +051 069062 063 034 001 00
220600 1813N 06118W 6951 03174 0022 +117 +054 066062 062 035 002 00
220630 1810N 06118W 6950 03174 0019 +118 +051 065061 061 035 002 00
220700 1808N 06118W 6946 03177 0015 +119 +054 065060 061 038 001 00
220730 1806N 06118W 6952 03167 0014 +118 +049 065063 063 040 002 00
220800 1804N 06117W 6952 03167 0018 +114 +055 064063 064 035 002 00
220830 1801N 06117W 6948 03172 0007 +123 +051 062063 064 035 001 00
220900 1759N 06117W 6950 03167 0009 +119 +051 062065 066 035 001 00
220930 1757N 06117W 6950 03166 0009 +118 +055 060066 067 035 002 00
221000 1754N 06117W 6951 03164 0011 +114 +059 060065 066 035 002 00
221030 1752N 06117W 6949 03164 0012 +110 +066 059062 063 037 002 00
221100 1750N 06117W 6952 03157 0001 +118 +060 054062 064 038 002 00
221130 1747N 06117W 6948 03162 0005 +114 +062 056061 062 038 002 00
221200 1745N 06117W 6952 03154 0000 +116 +063 054061 061 039 001 00
221230 1742N 06117W 6951 03153 0002 +113 +065 054062 062 040 002 00
221300 1740N 06117W 6952 03152 0000 +113 +066 051062 062 039 002 00
221330 1738N 06116W 6950 03153 9999 +113 +066 049060 061 039 002 00
221400 1735N 06116W 6949 03151 0001 +110 +066 047060 061 038 002 00
221430 1733N 06116W 6952 03148 0000 +110 +067 046060 061 039 002 00
221500 1731N 06116W 6949 03149 0001 +107 +070 043061 063 039 002 00

[Falling Soil]

 https://twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/905190778351132672


[/quote]

Wow! These are the first images I've seen that compare with Patricia, Winston, and Fantala (not quite Haiyan). Along with 916-920mb, the winds for this period before the EWRC could def. be 190+. Since winds could dip with the EWRC, I hope they note max winds on the next advisory..

[smithtim]

wouldn't be surprised if Irma makes a run at sub-900 mb after the EWRC. Conditions look very favorable still.

Yeah it is crazy and what's scary on average after EWRC it is very common for 10% + increase in wind speed...

Now, random question to all: the news weatherman here in CFLa just said 185 mph strongest ever except one prior... wasn't Wilma 195 or 200 when it was in gulf? Kinda irrelevant honestly but interesting as either way this thing is crazy and really feeling for the folks in those islands!!!

[RL3AO]

wouldn't be surprised if Irma makes a run at sub-900 mb after the EWRC. Conditions look very favorable still.

Yeah it is crazy and what's scary on average after EWRC it is very common for 10% + increase in wind speed...

Now, random question to all: the news weatherman here in CFLa just said 185 mph strongest ever except one prior... wasn't Wilma 195 or 200 when it was in gulf? Kinda irrelevant honestly but interesting as either way this thing is crazy and really feeling for the folks in those islands!!!

Allen (1980)

[ocala]

Things for the most part aren't too bad in Ocala yet.
Part of my job is going into grocery stores. Walmart, Winn Dixie, and Publix all had stocked full shelves.
For now.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 052227
AF305 1111A IRMA HDOB 06 20170905
221830 1811N 06247W 6970 03178 0071 +105 +042 056043 045 /// /// 03
221900 1812N 06246W 6967 03180 0071 +105 +044 055045 047 /// /// 03
221930 1812N 06244W 6969 03176 0073 +103 +050 055047 047 /// /// 03
222000 1813N 06243W 6967 03178 0068 +106 +045 054045 046 /// /// 03
222030 1813N 06241W 6969 03177 0065 +109 +038 054045 045 /// /// 03
222100 1814N 06239W 6966 03181 0072 +102 +049 056043 044 /// /// 03
222130 1814N 06238W 6971 03174 0076 +099 +053 056041 042 027 002 00
222200 1815N 06236W 6969 03180 0077 +098 +054 055041 041 027 001 00
222230 1816N 06235W 6967 03180 0086 +090 +059 055041 042 028 001 00
222300 1816N 06233W 6970 03178 0081 +094 +049 055043 044 030 000 00
222330 1817N 06231W 6969 03177 0080 +095 +047 055044 045 029 001 00
222400 1817N 06230W 6970 03175 0078 +096 +046 056046 047 028 001 00
222430 1818N 06228W 6967 03176 0078 +096 +049 057047 048 028 000 00
222500 1818N 06227W 6971 03171 0072 +098 +048 058049 050 029 001 00
222530 1819N 06225W 6965 03180 0072 +099 +050 059051 052 028 001 00
222600 1819N 06223W 6969 03172 0069 +099 +061 061051 052 028 000 00
222630 1820N 06222W 6969 03169 0067 +100 +055 062051 051 027 002 00
222700 1820N 06220W 6968 03170 0067 +100 +053 061050 051 029 000 00
222730 1821N 06219W 6967 03174 0066 +100 +054 060049 050 029 001 00
222800 1821N 06217W 6969 03171 0065 +102 +053 061048 048 030 001 00
$$
;

[Exalt]

wouldn't be surprised if Irma makes a run at sub-900 mb after the EWRC. Conditions look very favorable still.

Yeah it is crazy and what's scary on average after EWRC it is very common for 10% + increase in wind speed...

Now, random question to all: the news weatherman here in CFLa just said 185 mph strongest ever except one prior... wasn't Wilma 195 or 200 when it was in gulf? Kinda irrelevant honestly but interesting as either way this thing is crazy and really feeling for the folks in those islands!!!

Hurricane Allen with 190mph winds.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 052225
NOAA2 1011A IRMA HDOB 11 20170905
221530 1728N 06115W 6951 03145 9986 +118 +069 045063 064 037 002 00
221600 1726N 06115W 6949 03148 9990 +113 +069 042061 062 037 002 00
221630 1723N 06115W 6950 03145 9993 +112 +068 038058 059 037 002 00
221700 1721N 06115W 6952 03142 9986 +117 +062 036057 058 037 002 00
221730 1719N 06115W 6951 03144 9983 +120 +056 035057 057 038 001 00
221800 1716N 06114W 6950 03145 9984 +119 +061 034056 057 040 001 00
221830 1714N 06114W 6951 03144 9977 +125 +059 030057 057 040 001 00
221900 1711N 06114W 6951 03144 9982 +121 +060 028057 057 039 001 00
221930 1709N 06114W 6948 03149 9977 +126 +053 024055 055 037 002 00
222000 1706N 06113W 6951 03144 9978 +124 +064 021056 057 040 002 00
222030 1704N 06113W 6948 03148 9983 +120 +066 020058 059 040 001 00
222100 1701N 06113W 6980 03107 9992 +114 +059 019057 057 040 001 00
222130 1658N 06112W 7089 02977 9992 +120 +076 018054 056 037 002 00
222200 1656N 06112W 7187 02857 9995 +123 +083 014051 052 036 002 00
222230 1653N 06112W 7311 02716 9999 +127 +095 012049 050 036 001 00
222300 1651N 06112W 7488 02515 0004 +133 +118 006048 049 036 002 00
222330 1649N 06111W 7512 02491 0005 +136 +126 005047 048 035 003 00
222400 1646N 06111W 7515 02486 0009 +132 +125 000044 045 035 002 00
222430 1644N 06111W 7510 02493 0003 +138 +119 359043 045 033 002 00
222500 1641N 06111W 7511 02494 0002 +143 +101 358042 044 033 002 00

[La Sirena]

My parents live in Dothan, Alabama which is about 75 miles north of Panama City Beach on the panhandle. My dad has a brain tumor and wears a device called Opptune (tumor treating fields) that requires charging every 18 hours. I encouraged them to go out and get a generator today in case they lose power. All of the hardware stores there are completely sold out.



At least some people are taking this seriously. Either that or lots of people donated generators to Houston/Port Aransas. I live in San Antonio and a lot of people in other states brought entire 18 wheelers full of stuff like that.

Praying for everyone to be smart and safe.

I was just at Harbor Frieght here in Dothan and they had them. This was Sunday. Hope that helps!

[Blown Away]

Could make an argument Irma may go N of the next forecast point... Maybe GFS onto something???

[Exalt]

Well she's intensifying as that eye is contracting.. I wouldn't be surprised if 195 - 200mph winds were found.

[NYR__1994]

Here is the current discussion from NWS Charleston. Usually this far out you don't see anything worded this strongly....

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The trough to our north will continue moving eastward and offshore
as surface high pressure prevails into the first part of the
weekend. Focus then turns to powerful Hurricane Irma, which will
likely be near the Bahamas and southern Florida this weekend. There
remains an elevated risk for impacts from Hurricane Irma over the
weekend into early next week. However, it is still too early to pin
down exactly how Irma will impact the region as there remains
uncertainty with the track Irma will take and how strong it will be
as it approaches the Southeast United States.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Could make an argument Irma may go N of the next forecast point... Maybe GFS onto something???

Could still just be a wobble. Doesn't recon handle where hurricanes go? Too hard to tell if it's going north but I doubt it. We'll see soon enough.

Right here, it looks like it's going the path NHC has it as, so it may be going NW soon. I kept reading it was supposed to have turn by now lol

[ava_ati]

Spoke to my neighbor who is a Captain in Air National Guard at Camp Blanding (meteorology) and his people are leaning towards the models that show it going up the middle of Florida or making landfall on the south west coast of Florida (like the NHC says)... They believe it going on the east side of the state (like the GFS is showing) is more unlikely.

That is just what he said and take it as nothing more than rumor.

[meriland29]

Anyone know if/where recon is? Is there a real time link for recon? I had it before but lost it

[Andy_L]

Flightradar24 shows noaa42 on a SW to NE pass....headed for the eye

[Exalt]

Anyone know if/where recon is? Is there a real time link for recon? I had it before but lost it

Check the Recon Data and Recon Discussion threads. They're doing a SW to NE pass right now.

[SunnyThoughts]

Spoke to my neighbor who is a Captain in Air National Guard at Camp Blanding (meteorology) and his people are leaning towards the models that show it going up the middle of Florida or making landfall on the south west coast of Florida (like the NHC says)... They believe it going on the east side of the state (like the GFS is showing) is more unlikely.

That is just what he said and take it as nothing more than rumor.

Just heard from my daughter who works with a few children who's parents are pilots out of Hurlburt field in Okaloosa county, fla..they are moving planes out by Thursday.