ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Exalt]

"CDG ring in the Atlantic" What is a CDG ring ?nothing pops up on google.

Cold Dark Grey, signifies how cold the cloud tops are, and is a sign of a very intense tropical cyclone.

[txwatcher91]

What's the likelihood at this point of Irma missing Florida to the east?

Very low at this point.

No, it’s about 50/50. Some models take it east of Florida while others go west. Even the EPS is split like that. Too many variables to know for sure yet and everyone in South Florida needs to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

[RL3AO]

"CDG ring in the Atlantic" What is a CDG ring ?nothing pops up on google.

"cold dark grey" it refers to the colors used in the infrared satellite image above. CDG is very cold cloud tops associated with very strong storms.

[KBBOCA]

South Florida residents:

NHC Forecaster Eric Blake has a twitter list for SFL weather. May come in handy as a source of important info in coming days

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/lists/s-fl-weather

[drezee]

917mb drop... by definition it is RI...wow

[NDG]

Wow, pressure down to 917 mb!

URNT12 KWBC 052302
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 05/22:45:25Z
B. 17 deg 07 min N
060 deg 08 min W
C. NA
D. 137 kt
E. 255 deg 9 nm
F. 331 deg 138 kt
G. 252 deg 11 nm
H. 917 mb
I. 14 C / 2447 m
J. 24 C / 2454 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO20-45
N. 12345 / NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 1011A IRMA OB 12
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 156 KT 060 / 13 NM 22:48:32Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 080 / 05 KTS

[1900hurricane]

Based on the past two recon passes, Irma may be back to being closer to a typical pressure/wind relationship. While still a solid category 5, I'm not seeing anything close to 160 kt anymore.

[supercane4867]

"CDG ring in the Atlantic" What is a CDG ring ?nothing pops up on google.

It's actually never been observed in the Atlantic basin. Gilbert and Wilma came close but never sustained a symmetrical CDG ring with WMG eye.

[SunnyThoughts]

I want to see what the AF plane finds and compare it to the noaa plane's findings.

[Hammy]

Doesn't the NOAA plane usually have lower readings for wind due to the higher altitude?

[Exalt]

Based on the past two recon passes, Irma may be back to being closer to a typical pressure/wind relationship. While still a solid category 5, I'm not seeing anything close to 160 kt anymore.

I believe there was a 157kt reading but it might've been flagged.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 23:02Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 12 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 22:45:25Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°07'N 60°08'W (17.1167N 60.1333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 113 statute miles (182 km) to the E (90°) from Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 137kts (~ 157.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the WSW (255°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 331° at 138kts (From the NNW at ~ 158.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the WSW (252°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 917mb (27.08 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,447m (8,028ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,454m (8,051ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 156kts (~ 179.5mph) which was observed 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) from the flight level center at 22:48:32Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 80° at 5kts (From the E at 6mph)

[GCANE]

Kermit's Radar

[galaxy401]

Irma needs to pass 910 mb to reach the top ten most intense Atlantic hurricanes list. Could surpass that overnight.

[Macrocane]

Complete red ring wrapped up around the center in AVN Infrared right now

[leanne_uk]

Hey guys,

I have quite a few friends over in the UK who have Family and friends in Disney at the moment. All of them are there until at least next week and are incredibly worried about Irma as you can imagine.
Most are staying in the resort hotels and 2 off them are in Villas not too far away from the resort.

Could anyone give me a rough idea of what they could be expecting from Irma.... I know it is days away and they are so many variables right now but any help would be greatly appreciated.

[NDG]

The GFS's sub 900mb pressure forecast is all the sudden not a fantasy

[Kazmit]

This tweet is 11 hours old, but I don't think I've seen it posted

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Surge/status/905041931931176960




On a related note, because of this surge, I read on a BVI news site that the authorities were urging evacuation of Anegada residents to Virgin Gorda.

I hope they all evacuate. That island is as flat as the Bahamas.

[RL3AO]

Based on the past two recon passes, Irma may be back to being closer to a typical pressure/wind relationship. While still a solid category 5, I'm not seeing anything close to 160 kt anymore.

Yep. Looking more like a "regular" cat 5. Maybe even a cat 4 by morning. Let's see how efficient the EWRC is.