ATL: IRMA - Models

[RL3AO]

Trough a little weaker in GFS. Might catch the Carolinas this run.

[otowntiger]

18z GFS steering. Looks like it spares Florida:

did ya have any doubts?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Lifting north at hour 162

[Aric Dunn]

there is goes straight north at 160 hours. looks like its going to head out to sea like the euro..

[Steve]

Slow down/stall in the Bahamas at 162. Dreadful for them.

Run the 850/500/250. Trough lifting and high pressure now building across the great lakes and almost to eastern Great Lakes. Damn, this is going to be close.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS through hour 162:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Ridge doesn't look as strong as it did on the 12z... may escape to the N.

EDIT: Bullseye on the Carolinas.

[Aric Dunn]

Just remember we still have to get passed this wsw to west motion... its huge player right now..

[Kingarabian]

884mb:

[Aric Dunn]

ridge built back in at 174.. SE US landfall ...likely now.. much farther west again though

[tarheelprogrammer]

There goes the agreement on the trough I spoke of a few days ago. Should trend east now over the next few runs. Might not escape this run, but that trough trending stronger, and opening the door should stick IMHO. We shall see. It could still go either way, and of course things will change.

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

Look at the timing. Faster, Irma gets a shot out. Any slower, it's going to be blocked for 3 days or so because it's not getting through the high.

Linear Forecast Trend 48 Hours - Critical to view for the synoptics!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

[toad strangler]

ridge built back in at 174.. SE US landfall ...likely now.. much farther west again though

It's not much farther W. Just a tiny tick over 12z

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS trend hr186

[toad strangler]

WOW, and just that close to a 300 billion dollar damage disaster to the state of Florida... still quite discomforting for the residents watching this monster approach and hoping it indeed does turn... nightmare for local authorities too...

If folks along the east coast of Florida went through Matthew only to get very little, they may not prepare as much because "Matthew wasn't that bad there, and this will stay offshore too". So that's a real danger if it does suddenly move inland.

No it doesn't work like that. Most people are not stupid.

[Steve]

Landfall Imminent in Southern NC at 192.
At some point it becomes a hair slower as it's just a little SE of the 12Z position but heading for the coast.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS:

[Bocadude85]

So the GFS and Euro are bringing Irma within 100 miles of S.Fla in 7 days...I have been saying for days that I'd rather see a landfall here in the long range because it most likely won't happen...the models refuse to bring Irma into Florida, instead they just keep shifting southwest and getting closer and closer..not a good trend.

[AutoPenalti]

Crazy, SFL and Carolinas are still in play, Tuesday should be interesting.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS slightly east of 12z. Trend toward ECMWF?