ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[OURAGAN]

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Last pass i can (find) was not full,but does not show any 35kts in what it did capture.


The next microwave pass's should give a better indication of status.

Do you have some data we are not privy to atm RL3AO.

[RL3AO]

Last pass i can (find) was not full,but does not show any 35kts in what it did capture.
https://s17.postimg.org/dry8r4l9r/WMBds26.png[/img]

The next microwave pass's should give a better indication of status.

Do you have some data we are not privy to atm RL3AO.

Nope, it was based on that ASCAT. I said TC not TS (aka a tropical depression).

[Orlando]

I haven't had any hip pain all day. Although the models look very impressive, I'm just not feeling it for this to be a hurricane. If I'm wrong, I'll never predict from the hip again.

You all are much, much better at these things than I am anyway. I do love to watch things develop here. It is a great learning experience.

[Aric Dunn]

looking at the convective pattern the motion of the over shooting tops possibly suggest the center is farther into the convection I thought earlier..

[Aric Dunn]

now we just need a good microwave pass.

[weathaguyry]

This does not at all remind me of the crap we have seen in the last few years...

[AubreyStorm]

Done!

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Last pass i can (find) was not full,but does not show any 35kts in what it did capture.
https://s17.postimg.org/dry8r4l9r/WMBds26.png[/img]

The next microwave pass's should give a better indication of status.

Do you have some data we are not privy to atm RL3AO.

Nope, it was based on that ASCAT. I said TC not TS (aka a tropical depression).

There is nothing over 30kts on that ascat,to my knowledge TC aka TD is 34kts.
But givin the low bias of ascats yeah likely is a td

[Hurricane Andrew]

The little TC rhat could? I figure we'll have a bump to 70/70 at 11, and maybe an upgrade 12 hours later. I am no pro.

I hate being wrong.

[RL3AO]

There is nothing over 30kts on that ascat,to my knowledge TC aka TD is 34kts.

34 knots is a tropical storm.

[Alyono]

TD Four

[Aric Dunn]

and we finally have TD 4 lol

[ScottNAtlanta]

I have noticed that tonight you dont have the collapsing boundaries shooting out from dry air making thunderstorms collapse, but instead looks more like its ventilating the storms

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017
1100 PM AST Wed Jul 05 2017

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC...
...NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 38.4W
ABOUT 1545 MI...2485 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES




Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017
1100 PM AST Wed Jul 05 2017

The low pressure area west of the Cabo Verde Islands has a
well-defined circulation based on a combination of surface
observations and scatterometer data. In addition, there has been a
persistent area of convection west of the center for the past 12 h
or so. Based on these, advisories are initiated on the system as a
tropical depression. The initial intensity is set to 25 kt based
on the scatterometer data and satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB.

Experimental multispectral imagery shows a large area of dry and
dusty air over the Atlantic near and east of the depression, and it
appears likely this will entrain into the circulation during the
next couple of days. The large-scale models forecast the system to
dissipate very quickly due to this entrainment, while in contrast
the statistical-dynamical guidance forecasts modest strengthening.
Another factor is that the current environment of light to moderate
easterly shear is expected to become moderate to strong
southwesterly shear at about 48 h. As a compromise between the
extremes in the guidance, the intensity forecast calls for little
change in strength for 48 h, followed by the system degenerating
to a remnant low by 72 h.

The initial motion is 290/12. The depression is on the south side
of a strong low- to mid-level ridge, and this feature should steer
the cyclone or its remnants west-northwestward for the next 5 days.
There should be an increase in forward speed during the next 24
h, with some decrease in forward speed after 72 h as the system
approaches a weakness in the ridge. The forecast track lies close
to the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 12.8N 38.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 13.4N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 14.2N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 15.2N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 16.5N 51.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 19.5N 58.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0000Z 22.0N 63.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z 24.5N 68.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Aric Dunn]

I have noticed that tonight you dont have the collapsing boundaries shooting out from dry air making thunderstorms collapse, but instead looks more like its ventilating the storms

yeah actually thats a good point.. at least right now the sal and dry air is just behind it... if it stays more wnw vs and nw it might stay just ahead of it.

[emeraldislenc]

Very interesting!

[SFLcane]

lol forecast to poop in a few hrs..

[ScottNAtlanta]

lol forecast to poop in a few hrs..

Guess that means we will know rather quickly who is wrong or right!

[Aric Dunn]

check out the motion of the deep convection( overshooting tops) on the far eastside the last couple hours especially the last hour. they have migrated north while the deep convection has migrated south.

looks like convection has built around the east side of the circ. which means its has a better shot of keeping the dry air out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/94L/flash-avn-long.html