ATL: IRMA - Models

[Steve]

HWRF finishes up at:

21.99N, 74.2W
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

[Frank P]

HWRF finishes up at:

19.9N, 74.2W
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

Would hate to be on the southern tip of Crooked Island then...

[WeatherEmperor]

HWRF finishes up at:

19.9N, 74.2W
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

Really?? Here is the graphic of where it ends




Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[meriland29]

I have a question regarding GFS and there intensity forecasts. Goes GFS tend to 'way' over or under do the intensity forecast of hurricanes (historically)?

I believe the GFS usually over intensifies storms and even more so since it was upgraded.

Hmm, I just bring it up cause the models intensity peaks at like the 870's very close to NC. I don't remember how GFS presumed Harvey would intensify either..

[Extratropical94]

HMON has the 850mb level about 20m above the surface

pressure drops to 858mb

Lol! No way!

I think this is worth saving.

[ronjon]

18z HWRF position at 120 hrs is 0.7 deg latitude south of 12z position at 126 hrs. Long about the same.

[Steve]

HWRF finishes up at:

19.9N, 74.2W
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

Really?? Here is the graphic of where it ends




Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

21.99 not 19.9! My bad. I'll fix it.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm curious to see how the 00Z HWRF changes (if at all) since it will have the P3 recon radar data ingested into the initialization.

[jlauderdal]

18Z NAVGEM shifts slightly west but still offshore SE Florida as it moves north:

I've got it coming in WNW but gradually bending to NW. This would imply a Florida hit around Cocoa or so if it verified. Tough place to hit from the SE or ESE. Speed it up since it's not all filled in yet.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200

The cape wind profilers would give us some great data if it came ashore in cocoa

[Steve]

Also, HWRF-P has now completed it's 18Z run.

You may not want to run it if you live in the Bahamas or South Florida.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

It's still showing the momentum issue. There's no easy way to stop a runaway freight train, and the bigger and faster something is, the harder it is for that object to stop. I'm not putting any weight behind the 18Z HWRF-P. It's just a model. But it's a bad scenario one for sure.

[hohnywx]

HMON has the 850mb level about 20m above the surface

pressure drops to 858mb

Lol! No way!

I think this is worth saving.

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/eaXSzcP.png[/img]
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/KJBCSjY.png[/img]

And the max wind...205kt!!!

[SootyTern]

HMON has the 850mb level about 20m above the surface

pressure drops to 858mb

Lol! No way!

I think this is worth saving.

they need a new color for 235 mph winds

[PTPatrick]

I should go without saying 860 won't verify. Even west PAC typhoon Tip wasn't that low. I doubt the Atlantic will ever beat pacific record for that. Of course if anything even close to 870 occurred in Atlantic out side of carribean or gulf it would be enough to make me think we have gone off the climate change deep end.

[bhj867]

Could you imagine those winds hitting Miami! That would be the end of South Florida.

[gatorcane]

Hurricane Donna 1960 and hurricane David 1979 come to mind looking at the latest models.

[nativefloridian]

Also, HWRF-P has now completed it's 18Z run.
You may not want to run it if you live in the Bahamas or South Florida.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

Well I went against your advice because curiosity won....so here's all I can say

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Lol! No way!

I think this is worth saving.

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/eaXSzcP.png[/img]
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/KJBCSjY.png[/img]

And the max wind...205kt!!!

Yeah i was looking @ that yesterday i suspect it maybe also showing upperlevel wind speed
@10 metres

[bhj867]

Why are some of these models so extreme, and will reality get even close? I feel like the US should be preparing for the worse natural disaster in US history.

[CourierPR]

Hurricane Donna 1960 and hurricane David 1979 come to mind looking at the latest models.

https://s26.postimg.org/vac83yz61/track.gif

A recent tweet by Met. Bryan Norcross at TWC stated that it is increasingly likely that preps will be needed for Florida.

[sma10]

No comment.

I've seen this many times before. History reminds me that this has a feel of an earlier (i.e. further east) turn. Long time trackers will understand what I mean.