ATL: IRMA - Models

[weathaguyry]

Donna has always been at the front of my head as an analog, and it looks like it may be a good one too, although catastrophic for the whole entire east coast

[shaneomac]

Is a track OTS a possibility now or is that out the window ? just getting off work and noticed the euro is on its own .. tbh i would love a hurricane here been a while not a big one just a small one .. hope to god the gfs is overdoing it for Carolinas sake .

[RL3AO]

I've seen this many times before. History reminds me that this has a feel of an earlier turn. Long time trackers will understand what I mean.

History said this would never get west of Bermuda. That's what many used last week when they said this is an "absolute fish storm" that "won't get anywhere near the US".

[RL3AO]

Is a track OTS a possibility now or is that out the window ? just getting off work and noticed the euro is on its own .. tbh i would love a hurricane here been a while not a big one just a small one .. hope to god the gfs is overdoing it for Carolinas sake .

Still very possible. Cuba to Nova Scotia still need to watch.

[CrazyTropics]

No comment.

I've seen this many times before. History reminds me that this has a feel of an earlier turn. Long time trackers will understand what I mean.

Just not seeing this outcome. Think the ridge is overdown and this will turn N-NW before FL and up to Carolinas. Just is too much like Hugo or Floyd. I think as we have seen before wild swings back anf forth but if you take the mean then that would be the Carolinas

[meriland29]

I do really hope that the intensity forecast is a over-estimation. That would be beyond catastrophic...

[drezee]

You want the southern eyewall to be disrupted by the islands mountains or something. This is not a drill. There is nothing else going to stop this thing. I pray for out to sea.

[northjaxpro]

Hurricane Donna 1960 and hurricane David 1979 come to mind looking at the latest models.

https://s26.postimg.org/vac83yz61/track.gif

A recent tweet by Met. Bryan Norcross at TWC stated that it is increasingly likely that preps will be needed for Florida.

Yes. I just posted in the discussion thread that on the local news I saw that Emergency Operation Centers all across the state have already been discussing their plans to activate their level of readiness to initiate action in their respective counties, if necessary, due to Irma's approach late this upcoming week.

[Aric Dunn]

Someone need to do a little code fix on the HNOM lol. Not sure our atmosphere could even produce that..

[WeatherEmperor]

Hurricane Donna 1960 and hurricane David 1979 come to mind looking at the latest models.

[img]https://

[h://s26.postimg.org/yigph0lft/tra]

Yes!! These are exactly the analogs I am thinking about. I fear Irma will "recurve" OVER the state of Florida. My concern level this evening had gone up considerably here in Pembroke Pines



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[ronjon]

Interesting that the recent suite of 18z GFS ensemble runs either run right up through the peninsula or just offshore. But perhaps more significantly, after the turn they all move N-NW into the heartland of the CONUS. No apparent influence by any trough. Just following the edge of ridging it appears.

[sma10]

Also, HWRF-P has now completed it's 18Z run.

You may not want to run it if you live in the Bahamas or South Florida.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

It's still showing the momentum issue. There's no easy way to stop a runaway freight train, and the bigger and faster something is, the harder it is for that object to stop. I'm not putting any weight behind the 18Z HWRF-P. It's just a model. But it's a bad scenario one for sure.

Is the eye-size representative? In the last frame, the eye looks larger than Dade and Broward combined

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Precip rate along the SE coast,There will be horrific flooding if this plot verifies

A terrible plot that doesn't show units.

It looks like it's showing the 24 hour precip in millimeters.

The plot assumes that will be in the vicinity of land fall. To suggest 35mm of rain over
24 hours just dont make sense too me. Just 1 in = 25.4 mm

[Ken711]

No comment.

I've seen this many times before. History reminds me that this has a feel of an earlier (i.e. further east) turn. Long time trackers will understand what I mean.

GEFS tracks seem too far West compared to Euro. I wouldn't be surprised to see them shift East in the next few runs.

[drezee]

Last three recon fixes was heading of between 258 and 255 deg.

[RL3AO]

The plot assumes that will be in the vicinity of land fall. To suggest 5mm of rain over
24 hours just dont make sense too me. Just 1 in = 25.4 mm

I'm confused? The plots are showing the same thing. Yours is showing 50 to 100 mm of rain, mine is showing 2 to 4" of rain. I was just clarifying the units on the one you posted since some thought it was showing 40 to 50 inches.

[AxaltaRacing24]

No comment.

I've seen this many times before. History reminds me that this has a feel of an earlier (i.e. further east) turn. Long time trackers will understand what I mean.

GEFS tracks seem too far West compared to Euro. I wouldn't be surprised to see them shift East in the next few runs.

What? Majority of the EPS tracks are into Fl or just offshore. It's just deceiving due to only 21 GEFS members compared to like 51 EPS members.

[jdjaguar]

Hurricane Donna 1960 and hurricane David 1979 come to mind looking at the latest models.

David has his heart ripped out by the mountains, though,
Was never the same storm when it hit FL

[nativefloridian]

No comment.

I've seen this many times before. History reminds me that this has a feel of an earlier (i.e. further east) turn. Long time trackers will understand what I mean.

South FL has been in the extended (10 day out) model forecast numerous times in past years and it seems when that's the case, we come out unscathed. So, because SE Florida wasn't or barely gets missed in previous runs.....but at this point the consensus as getting too uncomforable for me as the time frame shortens.

[gatorcane]

No comment.

http://i.imgur.com/iEEnYzv.png

I've seen this many times before. History reminds me that this has a feel of an earlier (i.e. further east) turn. Long time trackers will understand what I mean.

GEFS tracks seem too far West compared to Euro. I wouldn't be surprised to see them shift East in the next few runs.

The Euro ensembles mean is right up the spine of the FL peninsula albeit with a pretty wide spread. So not too far off from that GFS ensemble track as far as general idea on track: