ATL: IRMA - Models

[nativefloridian]

No comment.

I've seen this many times before. History reminds me that this has a feel of an earlier (i.e. further east) turn. Long time trackers will understand what I mean.

South FL has been in the extended (10 day out) model forecast numerous times in past years and it seems when that's the case, we come out unscathed. So, because SE Florida enjoyed many recurves and bare misses in previous runs.....at this point, as the time frame lessens and the consensus has placed us in a precarious spot, it does make me a little uncomforable

[Blown Away]

Also, HWRF-P has now completed it's 18Z run.
You may not want to run it if you live in the Bahamas or South Florida.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

Well I went against your advice because curiosity won....so here's all I can say

What's crazy, the GFS/Euro are stronger than HWRF...

[Ken711]

I've seen this many times before. History reminds me that this has a feel of an earlier (i.e. further east) turn. Long time trackers will understand what I mean.

GEFS tracks seem too far West compared to Euro. I wouldn't be surprised to see them shift East in the next few runs.

What? Majority of the EPS tracks are into Fl or just offshore. It's just deceiving due to only 21 GEFS members compared to like 51 EPS members.

I see what you mean thanks.

[Blown Away]

00z Guidance... TVCN Consensus buying into R turn...

[AutoPenalti]

00z Guidance... TVCN Consensus buying into R turn...

Yeah, but look at the ensembles though, +50% have them right over FL.

[ronjon]

Here's the 12z GFS ensemble run mean. Gold coast in the bullseye.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017090318&fh=234&xpos=0&ypos=0

[boca]

The ULL to Irma's NW have any affects on the steering currects

[Ken711]

What runs will incorporate the recon data?

[tailgater]

HMON has the 850mb level about 20m above the surface

pressure drops to 858mb

Lol! No way!

I think this is worth saving.


https://i.imgur.com/KJBCSjY.pn[/quote

Anyone have a good idea of what size waves that would create in those fairly shallow seas.

[BucMan2]

Based on some of the models trending towards the coast or up the spine of the state,what conditions would or could the west coast of Florida Such as Sarasota,St.Petersburg, Tampa exspect?

[sma10]

00z Guidance... TVCN Consensus buying into R turn...

Yeah, but look at the ensembles though, +50% have them right over FL.

LOL. I think the TVCN track is a "shout-out" to the Florida protective shield

[drezee]

Actual Data from 3 recon drops:
Distance: 52.13 km
Final bearing: 259° 41′ 22″
Speed: 12.1 mph

[Michele B]

Here's the 12z GFS ensemble run mean. Gold coast in the bullseye.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017090318&fh=234&xpos=0&ypos=0

This reminds me of what David was supposed to do in '79. Fortunately, it stayed just off shore. If this monster raked the coast like this model, and went on shore and over all the east coast cities, it could wipe out MOST of FL's major cities.

Not good.

[gatorcane]

Another look at the hard right turn before reaching SE Florida. Have to say, if it ends up doing something like that, talk about a nail biter and yet another lucky escape for a South Florida (and yet another not so lucky hit on the Bahamas). You can't rule it out but seems a bit suspicious especially looking at the ensembles:

[drezee]

Actual Data from 3 recon drops:
Distance: 52.13 km
Final bearing: 259° 41′ 22″
Speed: 12.1 mph

Euro dive is holding

[Steve H.]

Yeah, the TVCN is almost a right angle north!!

[AxaltaRacing24]

00z Guidance... TVCN Consensus buying into R turn...

Yeah, but look at the ensembles though, +50% have them right over FL.

LOL. I think the TVCN track is a "shout-out" to the Florida protective shield

It also appears to be a "Shout-out" to the euro's 12z violent north turn lol.

[ronjon]

18z GFS ensemble mean...WPB direct hit.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090318&fh=222&xpos=0&ypos=470

[fox13weather]

Based on some of the models trending towards the coast or up the spine of the state,what conditions would or could the west coast of Florida Such as Sarasota,St.Petersburg, Tampa exspect?

not much...one of the biggest mistake meteorologists make is overstating impacts on west side of storm. We had nothing of note from Matthew.....it's bad if you are in eyewall...but shore of that, west side of a hurricane is the place to be..

[Steve]

Not model, though discussed. New Levi video for tonight.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/