ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxmann_91]

Feeling a little nostalgic for all those "season cancelled" posts right about now. That's all.

Me too. Early August was a fun time when the 2013 comparisons were still going strong.

We should have a separate thread for this, but why in the world is July -> August 15th a graveyard in the Atlantic...

SAL and low-level easterly surges.

[GCANE]

Station BARA9 - 9761115 - Barbuda, AG

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stati ... id=9761115

[BucMan2]

If Irma comes up the spine of Fl, am I better off in Tampa or Orlando?
Looking for advice

[weunice]

On the other hand we have people well outside the influence of even the models trucking it north despite the fact that there is almost no chance this storm is going to impact them. Some people won't leave who should and some people will consume hotel rooms that shouldn't even move. Social media on this storm is a mess right now. Please influence those in your circle to verify their sources and trust the experts.

[wxmann_91]

If Irma comes up the spine of Fl, am I better off in Tampa or Orlando?
Looking for advice

All else equal, you're better off not next to the water.

[RL3AO]

I'm cutting off the "people preparing too early" posts because that'll turn into 50 posts on the topic.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060127
AF305 1111A IRMA HDOB 24 20170906
011830 1704N 06056W 6969 02879 9729 +106 +088 317097 102 095 010 00
011900 1702N 06057W 6959 02913 9781 +086 +083 318100 102 091 016 00
011930 1701N 06058W 6968 02933 9824 +080 +079 310096 103 079 037 00
012000 1700N 06059W 6967 02955 9848 +076 +075 307093 094 076 013 00
012030 1659N 06100W 6963 02976 9870 +076 +070 308092 096 071 008 00
012100 1658N 06101W 6966 02993 9886 +078 +065 311086 088 067 008 00
012130 1657N 06103W 6965 03004 9902 +076 +061 310083 085 063 008 00
012200 1656N 06104W 6967 03012 9910 +078 +057 309076 081 059 008 03
012230 1654N 06105W 6965 03023 9915 +084 +054 313075 076 057 010 00
012300 1653N 06106W 6967 03031 9918 +089 +051 318077 078 057 009 00
012330 1652N 06108W 6969 03034 9931 +086 +049 320073 075 056 008 00
012400 1651N 06109W 6966 03045 9955 +076 +047 321068 073 053 010 00
012430 1649N 06110W 6970 03053 9971 +071 +046 323067 068 050 011 00
012500 1648N 06111W 6969 03063 9963 +084 +044 321064 067 048 009 00
012530 1647N 06113W 6957 03086 9979 +078 +043 323064 066 047 006 00
012600 1645N 06114W 6969 03078 9961 +101 +041 320061 062 046 005 00
012630 1644N 06115W 6969 03082 9958 +105 +039 323059 060 045 003 00
012700 1643N 06116W 6965 03088 9982 +089 +039 326054 058 044 004 00
012730 1642N 06118W 6968 03088 9984 +092 +041 324051 053 044 005 00
012800 1640N 06119W 6961 03100 9976 +102 +042 320053 054 042 002 00
$$
;

[SoupBone]

She seems to be moving slightly south of the projected NHC path and MAY be headed for a direct strike on PR. Luis, I hope not! But do others agree this possibility is increasing? I wonder if her extreme strength is causing this (I recall clearly Gilbert fooling forecasters with it continuing more westbound than projected) and do still wonder if she'll ultimately go much further west than anticipated and threaten the Gulf. That's not a prediction though I'm wondering.
So, do others think she's moving a little south of the projected path?

Nope, she's right on point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-avn-long.html

[Spacecoast]

Woke up this morning.
Did not like what I saw.
I didn't even want to know what direction it's coming from, or which model is better, or whether it will be 20-30 miles this way or that way.
Decided to get in car with my pet, and drive out of town.
Kept Driving, now I am in Atlanta, where I assume it will be tolerable.
btw, the traffic from Melbourne to Atlanta was very light indeed, only took 6 hours. no problem getting gasoline either.

If you are in the southern half of Fl right now I would say now is the time to stop looking at model runs, and reading S2K forums.
Just get in the car and go! Irma is only moving @ <20 mph, which you can very easily outrun, if you don't wait too long.
There seems to be an abundance of hotel rooms available. I am practically the only one at this particular hotel right now.
I have a feeling that thousands of people have booked, double booked, and quadruple booked rooms at various places because of the uncertainty. This is a real problem because others will not be able to reserve rooms, so please cancel your reservations as soon as you decide what to do.
But the time to decide is now!
And please be courteous, civil, & respectful to your fellow Irma evacuee. It really would be a shame to have empty hotel rooms during
such a serious event.

You do realise a large portion of the population just can't get in the car and cruise 450 miles away for a week in advance of a weather event even if its 100% going to happen. This is not s 100%. But good for you and I hope you enjoy your vacation. For myself I will try to pay my power bill tomorrow and watch the storm.

I understand, but while you wait for that 100% certainty , your options will be substantially reduced. I would rather watch the storm from a safe distance. FPL can wait. I'm sure they will be busy for the few months restring power.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

HURRICANE
Pentagon diverts 2 warships, Marine expeditionary unit for Hurricane Irma relief
BY CAROL ROSENBERG
crosenberg@miamiherald.com

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather ... rylink=cpy

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 1:27Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 08 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 1:08:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°16'N 60°42'W (17.2667N 60.7W)
B. Center Fix Location: 76 statute miles (123 km) to the E (83°) from Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,369m (7,772ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 143kts (~ 164.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 137° at 158kts (From the SE at ~ 181.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 917mb (27.08 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 161kts (~ 185.3mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) from the flight level center at 23:13:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 355° at 10kts (From the N at 12mph)

[tropicwatch]

Pressure leveling off for now, thank goodness.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 060127
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 06/01:08:30Z
B. 17 deg 16 min N
060 deg 42 min W
C. 700 mb 2369 m
D. 143 kt
E. 044 deg 13 nm
F. 137 deg 158 kt
G. 045 deg 15 nm
H. 917 mb
I. 9 C / 3051 m
J. 22 C / 3051 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C24
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1111A IRMA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 161 KT 068 / 18 NM 23:13:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 355 / 10 KT
;

ERC may be over - sub-900 coming?

[ronjon]

If Irma comes up the spine of Fl, am I better off in Tampa or Orlando?
Looking for advice

Tampa...west side of storm is weaker. Winds blow from the east offshore.

[Snowman67]

Are there any weather cams on Barbuda?

Couldn't find any web cams in Barbuda. This site does have a current weather portion. Not sure how often it is updated.


http://www.barbudaful.net/

[dukeblue219]

"Lighter" surface winds on the last couple passes, but another dropsonde showing gusts of 196mph a few mb above the surface at 01:27 UTC.

[WX5DBZ]

Could at least some operations at the NHC pre-emptively move to the WPC? That way, if communications go down, they have NHC forecasters ready to take over on a moment's notice.

I am unsure of exactly how "backup" works for the NHC, but it would most likely be just all hands on deck at the NHC just for the fact of traveling from home to office. Usually people will get TDY to an office to help, but people USUALLY don't leave their duty station to perform the same duties at another even during something such as this. Comms are MUCH better than they were during say Katrina, but they are still able to go out. The building at NHC is built for riding out very strong storms anyway.

They may send a few forecasters to WPC for continuity, but the NHC building and communications are built for a cat 5.

Didn't know that about sending the forecasters northward. When it comes to the NCEP side of things I'm not too familiar with their COOP. I just know with the WFO's you fall over to your backup office. Electronics staff is a different story especially when short handed.

[RL3AO]

If Irma comes up the spine of Fl, am I better off in Tampa or Orlando?
Looking for advice

Tampa...west side of storm is weaker. Winds blow from the east offshore.

Um Tampa is one of the most surge prone areas in the country. If the hurricane is over central Florida, winds would be from the west to the southwest of the center. Tampa may even need evacuations in that case.

[decgirl66]

Checking in from the Space Coast, N Brevard County. It's a wait and see game! We live in a study structure, so will be staying put no matter what. My heart is hurting for all the small islands in the path right now.