ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

Could at least some operations at the NHC pre-emptively move to the WPC? That way, if communications go down, they have NHC forecasters ready to take over on a moment's notice.

I am unsure of exactly how "backup" works for the NHC, but it would most likely be just all hands on deck at the NHC just for the fact of traveling from home to office. Usually people will get TDY to an office to help, but people USUALLY don't leave their duty station to perform the same duties at another even during something such as this. Comms are MUCH better than they were during say Katrina, but they are still able to go out. The building at NHC is built for riding out very strong storms anyway.

I had the opportunity to tour the NHC building at the open house they had this spring. Very cool experience, and that building is supposed to be able to handle almost anything.

[Countrygirl911]

I have a bad feeling that she is not going to turn north and head straight into the GOM

[ronjon]

If Irma comes up the spine of Fl, am I better off in Tampa or Orlando?
Looking for advice

Tampa...west side of storm is weaker. Winds blow from the east offshore.

Um Tampa is one of the most surge prone areas in the country. If the hurricane is over central Florida, winds would be from the west to the southwest of the center. Tampa may even need evacuations in that case.

Sure once it passes its latitude...but hopefully weaker at that point if over land 12 hrs.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060137
AF305 1111A IRMA HDOB 25 20170906
012830 1639N 06120W 6971 03096 9988 +098 +045 320052 053 043 002 00
012900 1638N 06122W 6966 03103 9997 +092 +048 321049 052 042 002 00
012930 1636N 06123W 6973 03101 9998 +096 +050 321046 048 040 002 00
013000 1635N 06124W 6966 03115 0006 +094 +052 320043 043 038 002 03
013030 1633N 06124W 6959 03122 0001 +101 +053 316044 045 /// /// 03
013100 1632N 06123W 6969 03111 0000 +101 +054 315041 042 036 003 03
013130 1633N 06120W 6973 03105 9992 +103 +055 311042 042 040 002 00
013200 1632N 06118W 6964 03115 0001 +095 +059 309041 042 041 002 00
013230 1632N 06116W 6965 03111 0001 +092 +062 304041 041 041 002 00
013300 1632N 06114W 6969 03106 9997 +094 +064 299041 042 042 003 00
013330 1632N 06112W 6969 03104 0011 +082 +066 301043 045 043 003 00
013400 1632N 06110W 6967 03106 0000 +089 +066 292040 042 043 002 00
013430 1631N 06107W 6968 03100 9996 +092 +064 286041 042 043 003 00
013500 1631N 06105W 6969 03102 9997 +092 +063 283040 041 045 002 00
013530 1631N 06103W 6973 03094 9996 +091 +062 279039 040 044 003 00
013600 1631N 06101W 6967 03102 9999 +089 +062 270038 039 044 002 00
013630 1630N 06059W 6970 03100 9993 +095 +060 267041 043 044 002 00
013700 1630N 06056W 6966 03104 9986 +100 +059 266043 043 044 002 03
013730 1631N 06054W 6965 03110 9995 +098 +058 265042 044 /// /// 03
013800 1632N 06054W 6965 03104 0000 +086 +060 270041 042 045 002 00
$$
;

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Could at least some operations at the NHC pre-emptively move to the WPC? That way, if communications go down, they have NHC forecasters ready to take over on a moment's notice.

I am unsure of exactly how "backup" works for the NHC, but it would most likely be just all hands on deck at the NHC just for the fact of traveling from home to office. Usually people will get TDY to an office to help, but people USUALLY don't leave their duty station to perform the same duties at another even during something such as this. Comms are MUCH better than they were during say Katrina, but they are still able to go out. The building at NHC is built for riding out very strong storms anyway.

I had the opportunity to tour the NHC building at the open house they had this spring. Very cool experience, and that building is supposed to be able to handle almost anything.

Survived Andrew. I'd imagine another NWS forecasting office would take over for the NHC in the event they cannot continue issuing advisories.

[drewschmaltz]

:double:

I have a bad feeling that she is not going to turn north and head straight into the GOM

Thank goodness feelings aren't one of the steering mechanisms of tropical storms, or this already insane 3 weeks would be completely out of hand.

[RL3AO]

Survived Andrew. I'd imagine another NWS forecasting office would take over for the NHC in the event they cannot continue issuing advisories.

WPC takes over the Atlantic. CPHC takes over the EPac.

[terstorm1012]

It's actually a different building than the one that survived Andrew (that one is in Coral Gables, and if you recall, the radar did not survive Andrew)
this one was built after Andrew further inland.

[Bamagirl2408]

She seems to be moving slightly south of the projected NHC path and MAY be headed for a direct strike on PR. Luis, I hope not! But do others agree this possibility is increasing? I wonder if her extreme strength is causing this (I recall clearly Gilbert fooling forecasters with it continuing more westbound than projected) and do still wonder if she'll ultimately go much further west than anticipated and threaten the Gulf. That's not a prediction though I'm wondering.
So, do others think she's moving a little south of the projected path?

Yes I do still more west at 280 in 8pm. But I wear glasses so... there is that;)

[kthmcc7319]

:double:

I have a bad feeling that she is not going to turn north and head straight into the GOM

I share your concern. I believe we saw it happen with Ivan and Katrina. They were forecasted to turn northward upon entering the GOM and "missed their turns."

[Blown Away]

Irma hauling butt now, she will pass the 06z (17.6N/61.8W) forecast point way ahead of time...

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060147
AF305 1111A IRMA HDOB 26 20170906
013830 1634N 06054W 6971 03092 9978 +098 +060 270044 045 046 003 00
013900 1636N 06054W 6971 03083 9978 +094 +063 273047 047 047 004 00
013930 1638N 06054W 6967 03082 9966 +098 +063 276049 051 048 004 00
014000 1639N 06054W 6968 03072 9962 +094 +063 280051 052 050 005 00
014030 1641N 06054W 6967 03068 9963 +088 +063 282055 057 051 006 00
014100 1643N 06054W 6968 03063 9952 +091 +063 279058 059 052 005 00
014130 1644N 06054W 6965 03055 9950 +085 +063 282060 062 053 007 00
014200 1646N 06054W 6970 03042 9941 +085 +063 284066 067 057 009 00
014230 1648N 06054W 6953 03055 9939 +077 +063 280068 069 056 014 03
014300 1649N 06054W 6973 03022 9931 +073 +062 280071 074 060 010 00
014330 1651N 06054W 6962 03016 9902 +086 +060 278075 077 063 008 00
014400 1652N 06054W 6965 03003 9886 +089 +057 277081 084 064 010 00
014430 1654N 06054W 6963 02990 9880 +080 +055 275086 088 069 016 00
014500 1656N 06054W 6949 02989 9861 +079 +055 280083 088 069 019 03
014530 1657N 06054W 6975 02942 9842 +079 +056 287087 089 074 021 03
014600 1659N 06054W 6973 02923 9816 +082 +056 282087 091 079 011 00
014630 1700N 06053W 6973 02903 9784 +090 +054 285088 092 085 009 00
014700 1702N 06053W 6970 02881 9750 +095 +054 283090 092 089 014 00
014730 1703N 06053W 6961 02861 9714 +097 +054 282094 097 097 017 00
014800 1705N 06053W 6971 02814 9675 +100 +055 283100 101 100 019 00
$$
;

[AdamFirst]

The current National Hurricane Center is on the campus of Florida International University, in West Miami (Sweetwater). Plenty far inland. WFO Miami shares the building with the NHC.

[Meteorcane]

:double:

I have a bad feeling that she is not going to turn north and head straight into the GOM

I share your concern. I believe we saw it happen with Ivan and Katrina. They were forecasted to turn northward upon entering the GOM and "missed their turns."

NWP has improved leaps and bound since 2004/2005

[drewschmaltz]

From met. Dave Tolleris ("DT") today: some hilarious lines about the strength of Irma being repeatedly shown by the GFS:

"The 0z SATURDAY operational GFS model continues to be well ...close to worthless piece of crap. I say this because I cannot follow or comprehend why anybody would follow a the model which consistent produces run after run the most extreme outlandish hurricane intensities ever seen the western hemisphere. Run after run the operational GFS model continues to show the most severe intense hurricane of all time in the Bahamas and then slamming into Southeast as category 5 sometime around September 10."

"Once again the operational GFS model remains firmly entrenched on the idea of a historic record shattering extreme hurricane a massive as portions slamming into the southeastern U.S.. The model continues or hurricane stronger than hurricane Gilbert in 1988 as it approaches the South Carolina North Carolina Wilmington area. This is essentially unchanged from last few model runs."

http://www.wxrisk.com/sunday-sept-3-upd ... to-se-usa/

Someone knock on wood. This is some meaty, juicy, eat your words material right here.

Did no one knock on wood?

[AubreyStorm]

Irma hauling butt now, she will pass the 06z (17.6N/61.8W) forecast point way ahead of time...

‪Do you think NHC will shift east on the next advisory?‬

[KyleEverett]

While this is probably related to the ERC underway, but something has hit Irma's symmetry in the western half, noticeable warming of the clouds.

[jdjaguar]

From met. Dave Tolleris ("DT") today: some hilarious lines about the strength of Irma being repeatedly shown by the GFS:

"The 0z SATURDAY operational GFS model continues to be well ...close to worthless piece of crap. I say this because I cannot follow or comprehend why anybody would follow a the model which consistent produces run after run the most extreme outlandish hurricane intensities ever seen the western hemisphere. Run after run the operational GFS model continues to show the most severe intense hurricane of all time in the Bahamas and then slamming into Southeast as category 5 sometime around September 10."

"Once again the operational GFS model remains firmly entrenched on the idea of a historic record shattering extreme hurricane a massive as portions slamming into the southeastern U.S.. The model continues or hurricane stronger than hurricane Gilbert in 1988 as it approaches the South Carolina North Carolina Wilmington area. This is essentially unchanged from last few model runs."

http://www.wxrisk.com/sunday-sept-3-upd ... to-se-usa/

Someone knock on wood. This is some meaty, juicy, eat your words material right here.

Did no one knock on wood?

I remember that posting, as does the poster, no doubt.

Godspeed everyone

Godspeed

[dexterlabio]

From met. Dave Tolleris ("DT") today: some hilarious lines about the strength of Irma being repeatedly shown by the GFS:

"The 0z SATURDAY operational GFS model continues to be well ...close to worthless piece of crap. I say this because I cannot follow or comprehend why anybody would follow a the model which consistent produces run after run the most extreme outlandish hurricane intensities ever seen the western hemisphere. Run after run the operational GFS model continues to show the most severe intense hurricane of all time in the Bahamas and then slamming into Southeast as category 5 sometime around September 10."

"Once again the operational GFS model remains firmly entrenched on the idea of a historic record shattering extreme hurricane a massive as portions slamming into the southeastern U.S.. The model continues or hurricane stronger than hurricane Gilbert in 1988 as it approaches the South Carolina North Carolina Wilmington area. This is essentially unchanged from last few model runs."

http://www.wxrisk.com/sunday-sept-3-upd ... to-se-usa/

Someone knock on wood. This is some meaty, juicy, eat your words material right here.

Did no one knock on wood?

Perhaps close, but the GFS was showing 880mb~ minimum pressure so that we still have to see.

[Meteorcane]

From met. Dave Tolleris ("DT") today: some hilarious lines about the strength of Irma being repeatedly shown by the GFS:

"The 0z SATURDAY operational GFS model continues to be well ...close to worthless piece of crap. I say this because I cannot follow or comprehend why anybody would follow a the model which consistent produces run after run the most extreme outlandish hurricane intensities ever seen the western hemisphere. Run after run the operational GFS model continues to show the most severe intense hurricane of all time in the Bahamas and then slamming into Southeast as category 5 sometime around September 10."

"Once again the operational GFS model remains firmly entrenched on the idea of a historic record shattering extreme hurricane a massive as portions slamming into the southeastern U.S.. The model continues or hurricane stronger than hurricane Gilbert in 1988 as it approaches the South Carolina North Carolina Wilmington area. This is essentially unchanged from last few model runs."

http://www.wxrisk.com/sunday-sept-3-upd ... to-se-usa/

Someone knock on wood. This is some meaty, juicy, eat your words material right here.

Did no one knock on wood?

Doesn't seem like an eat-crow statement at this point, does anyone really think this is a sub 900 storm when it reaches NC? I think most people believed it had a good chance at Cat.5 at some point.