ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

[Michele B]

If Irma comes up the spine of Fl, am I better off in Tampa or Orlando?
Looking for advice

Tampa...west side of storm is weaker. Winds blow from the east offshore.

Um Tampa is one of the most surge prone areas in the country. If the hurricane is over central Florida, winds would be from the west to the southwest of the center. Tampa may even need evacuations in that case.

You don't have to be in Tampa Proper. Yes, it's true, if you are near the Bay and/or downtown, there is a lot of flooding.

But if you go north a little, Temple Terrace, for instance, or near the university (where I'm assuming there are hotels!), it's probably not going to flood.

Plus, as was said, Tampa is on the "weaker" side of the storm. Just go slightly north and east of Tampa itself. Less chance of getting full force hurricane winds (if it comes right up the "spine" of the state, but nothing is set in stone yet.).

[Aric Dunn]

if anyone is looking at radar and notice the eastern eyewall looks weak... well its just the radar ...

[RL3AO]

Irma hauling butt now, she will pass the 06z (17.6N/61.8W) forecast point way ahead of time...

That loop had Irma at 59.3W at 1815z and 60.7W at 0115z. That's 1.4 degrees of longitude in 7 hours. That pace would put it at 61.8W in 5.5 hours or 0645z. It's right on forecast.

[GCANE]

Live Webcam St-Barth - Port de Gustavia



Link: https://youtu.be/hG-GpHPkBoM

[Snowman67]

Glad to see Mets in NYC care about Barbuda, not just how Irma will impact them.

 https://twitter.com/LeeGoldbergABC7/status/905237305442566144

Lee Goldberg is one of the best...glad to have him up here!

Winds approaching 50mph and pressure really starting to drop in Barbuda/Antigua

https://www.accuweather.com/en/ag/codri ... ather/2302

[drewschmaltz]

I have a question as it relates to conditions and intensification. Is the sudden lift to the north not also accompanied by a sudden improvement in outflow conditions AND the warmest SSTs (gulf stream)? And, on top of that, isn't mid level shear suppose to drop further? That's what I've gathered the past few days... like... that's a substantial improvement of the most important factors... of a 917mb storm.

[RL3AO]

Looking at radar and recon, it appears that the inner eyewall has basically absorbed the outer eyewall. No real sign of an EWRC anymore.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060157
AF305 1111A IRMA HDOB 27 20170906
014830 1706N 06053W 6971 02780 9631 +106 +057 278106 109 103 020 00
014900 1708N 06053W 6967 02746 9588 +105 +059 279113 119 111 037 03
014930 1709N 06053W 6970 02687 9528 +105 +060 275118 121 125 047 03
015000 1711N 06053W 6954 02645 9460 +106 +063 277114 122 129 043 03
015030 1712N 06053W 6984 02538 9384 +108 +067 274114 125 143 006 00
015100 1714N 06053W 6951 02520 9293 +140 +071 276093 108 142 001 03
015130 1715N 06053W 6973 02449 9216 +175 +073 280059 081 066 001 00
015200 1717N 06052W 6970 02419 9165 +197 +071 281037 051 054 004 03
015230 1719N 06052W 6962 02417 9136 +217 +072 326007 028 035 003 03
015300 1720N 06051W 6963 02419 9143 +211 +075 098003 007 030 001 03
015330 1719N 06049W 6967 02405 9145 +196 +081 212024 034 038 003 00
015400 1719N 06047W 6970 02416 9172 +186 +089 218050 058 041 004 03
015430 1718N 06046W 6989 02434 9212 +181 +097 219070 072 /// /// 03
015500 1717N 06047W 7000 02405 9203 +177 +104 222060 070 /// /// 03
015530 1719N 06048W 6945 02445 9158 +189 +110 209041 053 050 003 00
015600 1721N 06048W 6984 02385 9147 +189 +114 180032 038 048 003 00
015630 1723N 06048W 6969 02398 9132 +202 +117 143033 035 044 003 00
015700 1726N 06048W 6965 02412 9133 +209 +119 128049 056 057 002 00
015730 1728N 06048W 6971 02419 9160 +199 +122 120071 077 087 000 03
015800 1730N 06048W 6961 02465 9221 +167 +126 120101 115 109 001 03
$$
;

125 kt FL, 143 kt SFMR. Pressure 913mb.

[EquusStorm]

Gatlinburg having been mentioned, I'm quite concerned about the potential impact at the national park in TN/NC; if the storm moves across central NC like some ensemble paths suspect, there would be a good bit of destructive wind there in the higher elevations. It is a gorgeous area. I know that Opal in 95 caused some pretty significant tree damage, knocking the top off the tallest tree east of the Rockies (was the only 200 foot tall tree on this half of the continent)

[Langinbang187]

Looking at radar and recon, it appears that the inner eyewall has basically absorbed the outer eyewall. No real sign of an EWRC anymore.

Is this common? I honestly haven't heard of this ever before.

[bonjourno]

Irma hauling butt now, she will pass the 06z (17.6N/61.8W) forecast point way ahead of time...

Is it just me or does she look a little ragged in the last few frames?

[Langinbang187]

Irma hauling butt now, she will pass the 06z (17.6N/61.8W) forecast point way ahead of time...

Is it just me or does she look a little ragged in the last few frames?

It's definitely just you.

[wxmann_91]

Looking at radar and recon, it appears that the inner eyewall has basically absorbed the outer eyewall. No real sign of an EWRC anymore.

Is this common? I honestly haven't heard of this ever before.

I've seen this happen in the WPAC before. I've noticed that the more favorable the environment, the more seamless the completion of the ERC will be. A long-running ERC is a symptom of something in the environment that is affecting the storm.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/codyyeary/status/905244987578830849




Cody Yeary @codyyeary
The double wind maxima is much less pronounced now. In fact, the latest VDM doesn't mention a 2nd eyewall anymore.
9:43 PM - Sep 5, 2017

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060207
AF305 1111A IRMA HDOB 28 20170906
015830 1732N 06048W 6963 02523 9301 +141 +131 121127 137 133 001 03
015900 1734N 06048W 6961 02603 //// +106 //// 114158 163 147 001 01
015930 1736N 06049W 6980 02654 9516 +119 //// 107156 163 147 001 05
020000 1738N 06049W 6953 02741 9564 +119 +119 099148 155 143 016 00
020030 1739N 06049W 6968 02757 9609 +115 +115 101145 148 133 013 03
020100 1741N 06049W 6968 02802 9664 +107 +107 104151 157 130 016 03
020130 1743N 06049W 6971 02840 9724 +098 +098 101154 158 126 021 03
020200 1744N 06049W 6981 02863 9778 +086 +086 100150 152 110 048 00
020230 1746N 06049W 6956 02915 9792 +083 +083 101142 148 101 054 00
020300 1748N 06049W 6978 02922 9826 +080 +080 103136 140 097 023 00
020330 1749N 06049W 6948 02974 9847 +077 +076 103132 135 096 020 00
020400 1751N 06049W 6973 02967 9874 +073 +072 100124 132 086 025 00
020430 1753N 06049W 6965 02992 9897 +069 +068 098121 122 085 015 00
020500 1754N 06049W 6968 03003 9916 +067 +064 098115 120 082 014 00
020530 1756N 06050W 6966 03020 9925 +070 +060 099115 118 079 015 00
020600 1758N 06050W 6954 03042 9931 +075 +058 097106 114 078 017 00
020630 1800N 06050W 6969 03031 9946 +071 +056 099107 110 076 008 00
020700 1801N 06050W 6970 03042 9952 +075 +054 101105 106 078 008 00
020730 1803N 06050W 6962 03055 9952 +082 +051 101105 106 075 007 00
020800 1805N 06050W 6970 03061 9954 +090 +049 102103 105 075 005 00
$$
;

163 kt FL (highest so far), 147 kt SFMR.

[Langinbang187]

Looking at radar and recon, it appears that the inner eyewall has basically absorbed the outer eyewall. No real sign of an EWRC anymore.

Is this common? I honestly haven't heard of this ever before.

I've seen this happen in the WPAC before. I've noticed that the more favorable the environment, the more seamless the completion of the ERC will be. A long-running ERC is a symptom of something in the environment that is affecting the storm.

Interesting. I don't typically follow the WPAC too closely. Thanks.

[GCANE]

White Bay, Jost Van Dyke in the British Virgin Islands - Live from the Soggy Dollar Bar



Link: https://youtu.be/IjGdi7z_B4U

[Aric Dunn]

real intense hurricane double eyewalls occasionally do what just happened.. not often though..

[Hammy]

if anyone is looking at radar and notice the eastern eyewall looks weak... well its just the radar ...

Mountain obstruction of the radar beam?