ATL: IRMA - Models

[weathaguyry]

If it starts to head OTS with a trough, once it moves NE there is no turning back? Or could it turn back west?

[Steve]

It also could pinwheek it back. They don't know.

Ken, I was referring to what he said about a piece of upper energy that would swing down after the trough. If he said it would do that if the trough was strong enough I didn't hear that. NAM is out to 45 and only the second trough is starting to come down so far.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=1

[invest man]

So then basically you're buying into the Euro or Gfs solutions? Or should we just throw out this model cycle until we get some kind of trend since this primarily started?

Levi says the low drops down from Montana while the Canadian ridge builds across to the N and NE. It's not on the map yet but may pop up toward the end of the NAM runs at 500mb

Levi said depending on its strength and timing of course, it could also provide a possible OTS steering option.

All I know is I'm sitting up here in central ENC (New Bern area) with a target on us! One thing I know however from many years of watching these storms is that we're either in a great position this far out in time as far as model goes or we're in real trouble. Any idea "if" that hook takes place how long lt will continue north or will it trend Ots or perhaps back toward the coast?

[bamajammer4eva]

Since models are making this unrealistically too strong (880mb, even 857mb) couldn't they be also making the high too strong such that the models are wrong in how far west this makes it so as it gets closer they see that it will never even be close to that strength and neither will the High that is steering it so they eventually turn this safely OTS??

[ConvergenceZone]

I still wonder when it comes to hitting land or going ou to sea, if it's about a 50%/50% toss up at the moment? Not sure if one favors more or the other...

[Ken711]

Since models are making this unrealistically too strong (880mb, even 857mb) couldn't they be also making the high too strong such that the models are wrong in how far west this makes it so as it gets closer they see that it will never even be close to that strength and neither will the High that is steering it so they eventually turn this safely OTS??

I'd say anything is possible this far out.

[Aric Dunn]

We know why the models are turning sharp north. Its a ramdom mid to upper low that forms over the mississippi valley that lifts it north.. they are probably not
going to say nothing.. but like most its extremely unlikely

So then basically you're buying into the Euro or Gfs solutions? Or should we just throw out this model cycle until we get some kind of trend since this primarily started?

The the latter half.. past 120 hours. ..

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/tropicswatch/status/904536045005545472

[Aric Dunn]

We know why the models are turning sharp north. Its a ramdom mid to upper low that forms over the mississippi valley that lifts it north.. they are probably not
going to say nothing.. but like most its extremely unlikely

Actually it doesn't look random. Levi pointed this out in his video on tropicaltidbits.com. Looks like all global models show some kind of trough or piece of energy that moves SE from the Montana area on the west side of the big trough over the Eastern CONUS. That could cause the cyclone to make a hard turn nearing Florida. No doubt cyclones can turn on a dime no matter how strong. We saw this with Matthew in the Caribbean. It is a very complex forecast looking out beyond 5 days that is for sure.

Yes, its not the fact that i develops. Its more it showed up suddenly in all the models.. just like the radom low a few days ago that developed over virgina randomly that lifted it North.. its seems like just another transient feature.

[AxaltaRacing24]

 https://twitter.com/tropicswatch/status/904536045005545472

When you look back at it and consider that we've gone from Nova Scotia to Miami, all I can say is damn. I guess people were right when they said that the GFS would not get the NE landfall right 15-9 days out.
(YES I know this can STILL CHANGE)

[ace]

not much...one of the biggest mistake meteorologists make is overstating impacts on west side of storm. We had nothing of note from Matthew.....it's bad if you are in eyewall...but shore of that, west side of a hurricane is the place to be..

Trust us.....Houston knows.....

[CrazyTropics]

I think what kills me is that we are like yo-yo's here based on models. I hear NE is going to get destroyed, oh know then NC for like 3 hrs this morning is destroyed, then again all of a sudden chatter about FL. The fact is no one knows bc the models are wacked right now. I think we can all learn that the models have the storm turning at some point up the coast so from FL to VA keep an eye. I wason the band wagon for NC and still think ultimately this will happen but just have to wait it out and be ready. We tend to really jimp on every model out there like it is gospel here. Again, if you look at all the models this past 239 pages they all are telling us a turn up the coast will happen probably some 50-100 miles off of FL then there yougo. Regardless this is going to be a historic storm for the ages so multi states will be hit. Se one said it would be leas costly if it hit Wilmington NC, pretty offended by that in that no matter where it hits, there are lives that matter. Chill on the model band wagon and talk about what it has already revealed folks. New mdels come out ahortly so lets all add it up from page 1 to now

[WeatherEmperor]

So the 0z GFS starts in 10 minutes or so. Wi the west shifts continue or will we see an east shift? Any thoughts??


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[crimi481]

Florida Emergency Management meeting tomorrow.
This track takes Irma over my head. yikes. hour south of Tampa. I am sure track adjustments coming. (wish)
https://twitter.com/TropicsWatch/status ... 72/photo/1

[MWatkins]

Here are the last 3 0Z official forecasts for Irma, suggesting an increasing threat for the US - although impossible to say for sure, where, yet.

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/DI2WCg1UEAAlS5U.jpg

MW

[xtyphooncyclonex]

So the 0z GFS starts in 10 minutes or so. Wi the west shifts continue or will we see an east shift? Any thoughts??


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Given the current southwesterly movement resulting in the storm going south of NHC's forecast points, it is feasible to say the models would trend similarly in their 00z runs today. It's even possible for Irma to make landfall in FL this run or in the following run

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 met said all the models have shifted west and he's getting worried now. Thinks it could land somewhere in south florida and go up the coast.

[Blinhart]

So the 0z GFS starts in 10 minutes or so. Wi the west shifts continue or will we see an east shift? Any thoughts??


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I'm going with further West, might even make it into the GoM for the really first time.

[tarheelprogrammer]

So the 0z GFS starts in 10 minutes or so. Wi the west shifts continue or will we see an east shift? Any thoughts??


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I am going with an east shift from all models, and the GFS missing the US completely to the east. CMC with a Carolina hit, and the ECMWF missing in the same fashion as the 12z earlier today.

[bamajammer4eva]

While we await the 00z runs here is how they have biased so far (direction and distance they have been off)



From

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/