ATL: IRMA - Models

[tolakram]

Lots of conflicting 'chances' with this. I made the mistake last night of only concentrating on formation locations. but as we saw with Ike years ago a significant dip south resets these chances. If it stays north then the odds of a US hit are indeed very low, if it does indeed move back south then all chances reset.

 https://twitter.com/JamesBelanger/status/902858113681936384




James Belanger @JamesBelanger
Probability of #93L tracking into the Gulf now up to 38% per latest calibrated #ECMWF ensembles. A more western track is now more likely.
7:38 AM - Aug 30, 2017

[RL3AO]

A friendly reminder that a "fish" is not the same as "not impacting the US" which is not the same as "not impacting the mainland US". The Euro shows a significant threat to the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas for many runs (e.g. not a fish) which includes a potential threat to Puerto Rico (e.g. the United States).

[TheStormExpert]

Won't even make it past 70w recurving already near Bermuda.

The GFS and the Euro buried Harvey in Mexico and many on this forum agreed.We see how that turned out.

The Euro didn't do so well with Harvey in terms of strength at least. But yeah, a 75% chance of a recurve or OTS track seems reasonable from its current location and how fast it's developing.

[caneman]

Won't even make it past 70w recurving already near Bermuda.

That's quite an assumption for a 10+ day forecast. I'm sure no one expected Harvey to be a Cat 4 and dump over 50" several days before landfall.

I'll give you this, based on it's current latitude, the time of year, and its quick development then it probably has a 75% chance of recurving before 70W but not all storms are alike.

soflcane has been optimistic all morning about a recurve, lets see what happens

I'm in agreeable with SoFloCane. Id be shocked if it didn't recurve

[jlauderdal]

That's quite an assumption for a 10+ day forecast. I'm sure no one expected Harvey to be a Cat 4 and dump over 50" several days before landfall.

I'll give you this, based on it's current latitude, the time of year, and its quick development then it probably has a 75% chance of recurving before 70W but not all storms are alike.

soflcane has been optimistic all morning about a recurve, lets see what happens

I'm in agreeable with SoFloCane. Id be shocked if it didn't recurve

based on climatology or modeling?

[SouthFLTropics]

If I were to place my bet right now I'd go with a late recurve with a brush to the Carolinas. But that is just my opinion based on the current data we have. As RL3AO has pointed out numerous times, a lot of what happens next week will depend on the evolution of the WPAC recurving typhoon and how the wave pattern evolves across North America. I'm almost watching the model runs from the WPAC and Alaska right now as much as I am the North Atlantic.

[RL3AO]

If I were to place my bet right now I'd go with a late recurve with a brush to the Carolinas.

A brush with the Carolinas in 14 days is quite a statement. With the tone of your posts you make it sound like this should be east of Bermuda.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/902866988107780099

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Bermuda is likely under the pump and maybe a major C 3/4.

Based on the 00z EPS, the threat appears to be greater for the Yucatan peninsula (about 12 % of the ensembles) than for Bermuda (I found no direct landfall and almost all members are well west of the island). All tracks between Central America and east of Bermuda are still possible

If 93L gets anywhere near the Yucatan peninsula digger i will eat my redback boots (Steel caped)

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/902869681400360961

[SFLcane]

Based on its current location alone right now YES i'd be floored if it makes past 70-75w but it could happen so we watch and see. Watching evolution of WPAC recurving typhoon.

[Happy Pelican]

A friendly reminder that a "fish" is not the same as "not impacting the US" which is not the same as "not impacting the mainland US". The Euro shows a significant threat to the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas for many runs (e.g. not a fish) which includes a potential threat to Puerto Rico (e.g. the United States).

Exactly. Just because it's not in your backyard, doesn't mean someone else's life isn't about to be completely turned upside down.

[forecasterjack]

ECMWF continues to consistently throw down a monster near the Bahamas D10: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/72 ... 0000z.html other parameters via menus

[txwatcher91]

With the strong dip south progged by the Euro and other models, this would pass in or near the Herbert Box making a US landfall much more likely... Additionally, if this becomes a large storm like models indicate, the islands would be affected as well and possibly in a significant way. I remember many saying that Harvey wouldn't be a US threat about 4-6 days out. Let's not make absolute statements when it comes to what a storm will or won't do, especially more than 3-4 days out.

[SouthFLTropics]

If I were to place my bet right now I'd go with a late recurve with a brush to the Carolinas.

A brush with the Carolinas in 14 days is quite a statement. With the tone of your posts you make it sound like this should be east of Bermuda.

Perhaps you've confused me with another poster. I've never been sold on the recurve idea yet. I feel it get's close enough to give everyone on the east coast a decent scare and perhaps a direct impact somewhere. Fourteen days is a long time out and I'm basing my early bet on how I see the trough/ridge pattern progressing across North America as well as climatology.

[WAcyclone]

ECMWF continues to consistently throw down a monster near the Bahamas D10: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/72 ... 0000z.html other parameters via menus

Will this link still display the 00z run when the 12z is out in a few hours? Would be great to have some of these ECMWF HRES maps saved for future reference

[RL3AO]

Perhaps you've confused me with another poster. I've never been sold on the recurve idea yet. I feel it get's close enough to give everyone on the east coast a decent scare and perhaps a direct impact somewhere. Fourteen days is a long time out and I'm basing my early bet on how I see the trough/ridge pattern progressing across North America as well as climatology.

Sorry. I was thinking of SFLcane...

[SouthFLTropics]

Perhaps you've confused me with another poster. I've never been sold on the recurve idea yet. I feel it get's close enough to give everyone on the east coast a decent scare and perhaps a direct impact somewhere. Fourteen days is a long time out and I'm basing my early bet on how I see the trough/ridge pattern progressing across North America as well as climatology.

Sorry. I was thinking of SFLcane...

No worries...I thought that was the case...

[tolakram]

You can download, upload to an image site, and post.

[SoupBone]

Lots of conflicting 'chances' with this. I made the mistake last night of only concentrating on formation locations. but as we saw with Ike years ago a significant dip south resets these chances. If it stays north then the odds of a US hit are indeed very low, if it does indeed move back south then all chances reset.

 https://twitter.com/JamesBelanger/status/902858113681936384




James Belanger @JamesBelanger
Probability of #93L tracking into the Gulf now up to 38% per latest calibrated #ECMWF ensembles. A more western track is now more likely.
7:38 AM - Aug 30, 2017

What I don't care for with statements like this is that it focuses on the pessimistic side of the forecast. The reality is that there is a 62% chance it doesn't track into the gulf. I guess I'm being picky, and I'm fatigued, but still.