ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Cone shifts north and east some.

That doesn't look like a shift. It looks like a progression.

Yes like a progressive shift north.

by the way.. if that happened given the size of the eye. that puts downtown miami in the right front quad and like inner eyewall strongest winds.. probably the worst option for surge and winds.. very bad..

[Stormcenter]

Apologies if this has been already posted but it's interesting how the NHC's cone of error goes further out to the left than right on the 10pm advisory.

[FloridaJayhawk]

Well, I guess my days of lurking are (somewhat) over - just wanted to thank everyone for the information and guidance so far. I don't get to geek out in non-medical environments often, so it's fascinating watching and learning from the experts.

Inland central Florida (Polk county) here, and I'll be camping at my hospital this weekend as essential ER personnel. yay. not. I was told to plan on it for Wilma, but got lucky for some reason. (I was a very sleep-deprived intern, and don't really remember much from that time.)

As of this morning, there is little bottled water, no generators, and everyone seems a little unnerved, and rightly so. Husband, who is a Florida native, sounds a little more worried than he lets on, but is also essential personnel so we're staying put and hoping for the best.

[mrbagyo]

The eyewall just got fatter and ticker.

[Snowman67]

geeezz. last frame of the radar.. ! feel really bad for whoever is on that tiny island.. and the next one and the other after.. and PR since unles it wobbles NE PR is likely going to have the strongest winds the islands has ever experienced and likely in san juan..
http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... site=Sabre

That is Barbuda. Looks like they are a few hours away from taking a direct hit. Total population is about 1600. Their main area of population (80-90%) is on the western side of the island. Hopefully that will lessen the surge somewhat in that area. However the winds are going to be horrific.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060307
AF305 1111A IRMA HDOB 34 20170906
025830 1756N 06135W 6970 03048 9928 +100 +054 058084 085 065 005 00
025900 1755N 06134W 6974 03035 9942 +081 +053 055088 091 067 003 00
025930 1754N 06133W 6967 03033 9923 +085 +055 062098 100 069 008 00
030000 1753N 06132W 6970 03012 9912 +082 +055 064104 106 072 008 00
030030 1752N 06132W 6964 03009 9900 +081 +054 063106 107 076 009 00
030100 1751N 06131W 6970 02992 9892 +081 +052 060108 108 079 011 00
030130 1750N 06130W 6965 02990 9883 +082 +051 057110 112 078 013 00
030200 1748N 06129W 6964 02982 9858 +091 +049 052112 115 080 011 00
030230 1747N 06128W 6970 02958 9857 +077 +047 050117 118 085 023 00
030300 1746N 06127W 6971 02938 9833 +077 +047 050122 125 088 039 00
030330 1745N 06126W 6968 02912 9800 +077 +049 052128 131 090 052 00
030400 1743N 06125W 6958 02898 9764 +082 +051 051140 146 100 047 00
030430 1742N 06124W 6959 02870 9735 +086 +054 058132 136 110 030 03
030500 1741N 06123W 6970 02828 9693 +091 +056 056129 135 /// /// 03
030530 1740N 06122W 6961 02805 9657 +090 +058 054131 136 124 052 00
030600 1739N 06121W 6988 02723 9604 +093 +061 053129 133 130 068 03
030630 1738N 06121W 6957 02713 9551 +095 +063 048131 134 141 068 03
030700 1737N 06120W 6968 02651 9485 +098 +066 047142 148 /// /// 03
030730 1736N 06119W 6978 02562 9409 +106 +069 039126 146 153 058 06
030800 1734N 06117W 6966 02521 9337 +122 +074 040094 120 147 017 03
$$
;

Lots of questionable data - may be shallower waters near Antigua and Barbuda.

[psyclone]

Apologies if this has been already posted but it's interesting how the NHC's cone of error goes further out to the left than right on the 10pm advisory.

It shouldn't. the cone is circles around each forecast point filled in with lines to create to cone. perhaps the slight bend at the end creates this impression

[Alyono]

Can someone explain the NHC 11PM advisory weakens Irma to 140MPH in the Florida Keys. Is there going to be shear? Are they forecasting Cuba to disrupt the core? Are they afraid to predict a Cat 5 on landfall in Florida?

It just doesn't make sense considering the oceanic heat content around South Florida is the highest in the entire Atlantic Basin. If Irma did 185MPH where he is now, there's no reason he can't do 200 in the Gulf Stream waters that are warmer.

If Irma doesn't hit Cuba, are they just praying for an eyewall replacement cycle? What's preventing a Cat 5 Florida landfall?

they are leaning heavily on SHIPS it seems. Doesn't make sense to me as the dynamical models show rapid intensification there

[txwatcher91]

Based on the recon pass right now it certainly seems like there is an EWRC going on. It can be seen fairly well now on the wind graphic with two “peaks” and valleys, possibly in the very early stages of one.

[galaxy401]

Oh man Barbuda is right on Irma's bullseye. Residents there never went through a hurricane this strong before. Going to be a long night for them...

[smithtim]

Unless I'm mistaken, if it maintains 160kts it becomes the strongest hurricane landfall on record since it looks like it will cross Barbuda. Globally, it would tie Cyclone Winston and only be behind Haiyan.

wind wise .. yes. not even close on pressure.

yeah something's interesting with the wind/pressure on Irma. Doesn't seem to be fitting the usual curve/equation for wind ->pressure , p = # * v^2 or whatever the formula is. Would expect pressure lower...

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060317
AF305 1111A IRMA HDOB 35 20170906
030830 1733N 06116W 6978 02478 9276 +148 +078 042063 083 104 002 03
030900 1732N 06115W 6961 02477 9260 +140 +080 048044 051 060 005 03
030930 1730N 06114W 6974 02445 9229 +155 +081 042035 041 046 004 00
031000 1729N 06112W 6970 02435 9204 +168 +081 036027 032 040 003 03
031030 1728N 06111W 6958 02439 9165 +203 +081 045012 025 035 001 03
031100 1727N 06109W 6970 02419 9151 +211 +081 166002 008 028 001 00
031130 1726N 06108W 6970 02424 9149 +220 +084 209013 018 029 003 03
031200 1724N 06108W 6962 02444 9154 +228 +088 233025 027 /// /// 03
031230 1724N 06109W 6971 02435 9160 +220 +095 245019 024 /// /// 03
031300 1725N 06110W 6959 02447 9160 +217 +102 280007 015 /// /// 03
031330 1727N 06110W 6969 02430 9151 +213 +109 195005 006 024 003 00
031400 1728N 06109W 6973 02424 9147 +217 +115 144012 017 030 001 03
031430 1729N 06107W 6969 02429 9140 +223 +120 158024 028 /// /// 03
031500 1728N 06106W 6959 02441 9156 +209 +124 188042 048 058 004 00
031530 1726N 06104W 6976 02436 9194 +186 +130 197066 073 068 005 00
031600 1725N 06103W 6965 02481 9228 +178 +134 201092 099 081 002 00
031630 1724N 06102W 6976 02505 9290 +149 +139 204112 117 102 001 03
031700 1724N 06102W 6965 02561 9335 +150 +141 207129 137 130 000 03
031730 1723N 06101W 6968 02601 9408 +136 +135 206147 151 139 009 03
031800 1722N 06100W 6963 02646 9468 +129 +129 204153 154 145 019 03
$$
;

[eastcoastFL]

This discussion thread is soothing after a page or two through the models thread. I don't think I can handle the models thread anymore. The mods are doing a helluva job lately and the pro mets too. Thanks to both!

[Vdogg]

Did the wind field shrink? Ts is the same but the hurricane force winds was 60 miles out and now it's 50?

They said they detected secondary wind maxima and it may be going through an EWRC. Perhaps this had an effect.

[Langinbang187]

Damn I really thought this might tie or overtake Allen. I can't really see it anymore.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060327
AF305 1111A IRMA HDOB 36 20170906
031830 1721N 06100W 6967 02682 9517 +125 +125 206148 153 140 020 03
031900 1721N 06100W 6967 02682 9561 +119 +119 206142 145 140 019 03
031930 1720N 06058W 6964 02762 9607 +113 //// 207134 140 133 018 01
032000 1719N 06057W 6983 02783 9657 +102 //// 206130 133 128 010 01
032030 1718N 06057W 6961 02842 9686 +104 +102 207125 127 117 005 00
032100 1718N 06056W 6967 02862 9711 +108 +095 208119 124 112 006 00
032130 1717N 06055W 6964 02893 9748 +099 +090 210112 117 103 007 00
032200 1716N 06054W 6973 02910 9775 +101 +085 213109 112 099 012 00
032230 1715N 06053W 6964 02956 9822 +086 +082 213105 110 096 019 00
032300 1714N 06052W 6971 02960 9846 +085 +079 214103 105 090 016 00
032330 1713N 06051W 6974 02974 9860 +091 +075 216098 100 086 008 00
032400 1712N 06050W 6968 02999 9887 +086 +070 214091 095 079 008 00
032430 1711N 06049W 6965 03015 9892 +093 +066 211089 091 078 007 00
032500 1709N 06048W 6968 03024 9905 +095 +063 210085 087 072 007 00
032530 1708N 06047W 6972 03024 9919 +092 +061 209084 084 071 006 00
032600 1707N 06046W 6964 03045 9942 +080 +060 213080 084 067 008 00
032630 1706N 06045W 6977 03042 9964 +074 +061 211078 082 064 012 00
032700 1705N 06044W 6963 03070 9973 +074 +059 206074 077 063 006 00
032730 1704N 06043W 6967 03070 9987 +070 +057 206071 072 063 005 00
032800 1703N 06041W 6973 03068 9992 +073 +055 205071 071 058 006 00
$$
;

[Jelff]

The link below displays a Florida evacuation map that I produced as a public service. When this map opens it displays the Google traffic layer and a layer showing any road closures. Click any of the road closure symbols for some information.

The map has 20+ data overlay layers that you can turn on/off and restack.

Do not rely on any map to ignore an order to evacuate. If you are told to leave then just GO!

The map **does not** display data from a static file that never changes. Instead, this map displays data from GIS (Geographical Information System) servers operated by various state and federal agencies. Each time you open the map or turn on an overlay layer the most recent data hosted on the GIS server(s) appears on your screen. Be patient! The servers are quite busy.

Only the ‘top’ overlay layer is clickable. To learn more please click the "Map Tips" link in the upper left corner.

When you click on some of the layers you will see a link that leads to more information.

The "Map Tips" link in the upper left corner will show you the map legend. It will also show you how to turn the other GIS data overlay layers on/off, how to make your own custom map link and more tips for getting the most benefit from the map.

Florida evacuation map link: https://bit.ly/2xN4ikn

I am happy to answer any questions but likely not until tomorrow.

[jasons2k]

I wonder if some of these super-typhoons being compared with Irma actually higher winds. They are basing Irma's winds on very accurate aircraft dropsondes. The Typhoon estimates were mostly satellite-derived. How do we know the winds weren't actually higher in those typhoons?

[FLeastcoast]

Well, I guess my days of lurking are (somewhat) over - just wanted to thank everyone for the information and guidance so far. I don't get to geek out in non-medical environments often, so it's fascinating watching and learning from the experts.

Inland central Florida (Polk county) here, and I'll be camping at my hospital this weekend as essential ER personnel. yay. not. I was told to plan on it for Wilma, but got lucky for some reason. (I was a very sleep-deprived intern, and don't really remember much from that time.)

As of this morning, there is little bottled water, no generators, and everyone seems a little unnerved, and rightly so. Husband, who is a Florida native, sounds a little more worried than he lets on, but is also essential personnel so we're staying put and hoping for the best.

sending prayers for safety. I am near Gainesville but we are leaving for TN..hopefully it is a good choice best wishes to you and your family

[RL3AO]

I wonder if some of these super-typhoons being compared with Irma actually higher winds. They are basing the winds on very accurate aircraft dropsondes. The Typhoon estimates were mostly satellite-derived. How do we know the winds weren't actually higher in those storms?

We don't, since the 1970s we only have Dvorak which was developed when there was a lot of WPac data to compare it too.