ATL: IRMA - Models

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bamajammer4eva
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4881 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:08 pm

Landfall in Cuba at 132. Should weaken majorly by Cuba mts!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4882 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:08 pm

Could this be turning into another Ike where it just keeps moving south and west all the way through?

NVM, the pathway north opens at 138 hours. The 588 lines separate with ridges east and west.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4883 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:08 pm

There was an opening briefly to turn north but has been much more pronounced in the earlier runs for days. Now the high is still looking in tact and troughs lifting and now nowhere to go go but west and wnw.

Edit. There it is but is it too little too late, only time will tell.
Last edited by CYCLONE MIKE on Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4884 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:08 pm

Someone just flipped the windshield wiper switch at the GFS center, didn't they?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4885 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:08 pm

Alyono wrote:landfall in Cuba at 132 hours...


I don't like this run at all...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4886 Postby GeneratorPower » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:08 pm

Cuba has mountains but in the SE part of the country. Image
Last edited by GeneratorPower on Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4887 Postby sma10 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:08 pm

At 120hr, very large SW shift. The atlantic ridge is apparently much stronger than thought. And we are still 4 days away from DR - still time for even more shifts south. I think in a couple of days the analog we are going to be talking about is Georges.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4888 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:08 pm

shaneomac wrote:Looks exactly like the euro no ?

GFS has Irma literally over Cuba, Euro went with the Bahamas. Stronger ridge this run
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4889 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:09 pm

Slows down, moves WNW but still over Cuba @144
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4890 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:09 pm

again no random low develops over the mississippi valley.. this makes way way more sense.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4891 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:09 pm

If these west and south trends keep up it will go over all the Greater Antilles though. BTW, does this run have any data from recon in it?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4892 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:10 pm

weathaguyry wrote:Looks like its gonna go straight into Cuba at 126, 901 mb



Ike like track? Ike also moved west-southwest to southwest. Just that I was thinking Isabel earlier as I didn't think such would occur again.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4893 Postby GeneratorPower » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:10 pm

The trend strikes again. Houston or NOLA?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4894 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:10 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4895 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:10 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:If these west and south trends keep up it will go over all the Greater Antilles though. BTW, does this run have any data from recon in it?


I was wondering the same thing, if any of the info from the first recon was in this model run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4896 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:10 pm

TRap door opening but cant miss FL now
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4897 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:11 pm

Irma is stuck in the COL area between two ridges at hr-138. Could sit and spin around for some time.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4898 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:11 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:Landfall in Cuba at 132. Should weaken majorly by Cuba mts!


no mountains where this hits
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4899 Postby Cunxi Huang » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:11 pm

Way too south...

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4900 Postby GeneratorPower » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:11 pm

SFLcane wrote:TRap door opening but cant miss FL now

Crawling speed. Gonna get big. Gonna get strong.
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