ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

Recon still showing pretty much the same strength... geezz.

Interesting to know if Irma is the only system to ever maintain 185mph winds for this long.

It's in rare company, but not there yet. Using best track points, Irma has maintained 160 kt for 12 hours. Tip '79 and Patricia '15 maintained >= 160 kt for 18 hours, and Haiyan '13 and Meranti '16 did so for 24 hours. Officially, those four are the only ones to have maintained >=160 kt for longer than Irma so far. I have a suspicion that there may be a few more that could have been added, but satellite estimates often cap out at 155 kt (T7.5), and old WPac recon practices were often too reliant on the AH77 P/W relationship. Regardless, Irma is in rare company.

[drewschmaltz]

aannndd here it come for barbuda.. can only imagine..Im making plans to fly to florida but a deep tropics hurricane like this.. sheesh..

Gusting to 81 - pressure at 980 at https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stati ... id=9761115

[Chris90]

A recent dropsonde in the SE eyewall just had a 155kts average in the lowest 150m. The SE eyewall, not even the strongest quad. Irma is a complete beast.

I can't even imagine what the people on the islands are about to experience. Thoughts and prayers going up for everyone on the islands right now.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Does anyone have any webcams or known storm chasers on Twitter that are somehow in Barbuda tonight??? Trying to find any information on the conditions there as they begin to deteriorate...

[mph101]

I wonder if some of these super-typhoons being compared with Irma actually higher winds. They are basing Irma's winds on very accurate aircraft dropsondes. The Typhoon estimates were mostly satellite-derived. How do we know the winds weren't actually higher in those typhoons?

Come on man the pacific basin is much larger, deeper, and holds more heat. Are you serious? Check out annular doughnut cyclones and then come back. Size matters.

[CrazyC83]

Does anyone have any webcams or known storm chasers on Twitter that are somehow in Barbuda tonight??? Trying to find any information on the conditions there as they begin to deteriorate...

I haven't found even a civilian on Twitter from Barbuda. The population there is 1,600.

[Aric Dunn]

Just when you thing eyewall convection cant get and any more intense.. its does... and in a crazy way.. I hope the remaining islands are ready to rumble.

[Sanibel]

GFS 00z never touches Florida and takes a category 5 in to Charleston...

[drewschmaltz]

aannndd here it come for barbuda.. can only imagine..Im making plans to fly to florida but a deep tropics hurricane like this.. sheesh..

Gusting to 81 - pressure at 980 at https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stati ... id=9761115

It looks like this is sending updates every six minutes. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stati ... 15#sensors

Gusting to 84 - pressure at 976.

My guess is 6 minutes from now is a very different story. It's weird to watch this happen so quickly while Harvey happened SOOOOOOOOO SLLLLLLLOOOOOWWWWWW.

[Aric Dunn]

Does anyone have any webcams or known storm chasers on Twitter that are somehow in Barbuda tonight??? Trying to find any information on the conditions there as they begin to deteriorate...

I haven't found even a civilian on Twitter from Barbuda. The population there is 1,600.

unless someone has satellite internet.. im pretty almost all power was turned off a few hours ago... not going to hear anything until rescue arrives in the morning..

[meriland29]

Am I seeing convection popping? I see the recon passed over 163kt winds about 20 min ago..

[PandaCitrus]

I'm amazed how tightly wound up Irma is. We are now in the outer edges of the eyewall and still don't have sustained hurricane winds. It's almost like Charley how compact the wind field was.

[Hurrilurker]

Webcam in St. Barts harbor:

http://st-barth.com/livecam3.html

Relatively calm at the moment but about to get real interesting over the next few hours. Most likely will become inoperable before the worst though.

[JtSmarts]

GFS 00z never touches Florida and takes a category 5 in to Charleston...

I want NO part of that. The Midlands would definitely see hurricane force winds on that track, moving NW/NNW after landfall.

[drewschmaltz]

Gusting to 87 - pressure at 973

There's obviously a lag, but how much?

EDIT: It looks like it is 50 minutes behind. Looks like we saw on radar the island enter the eye 30 minutes ago... which means we have between 0 and 20 minutes to start seeing measurements from the eye wall (provided the new data keeps transmitting)

[Aric Dunn]

53 kt sustained now..

[lando]

If ukm verifies and it rides up the Gulf Stream it may not weaken much before coming ashore at St Augustine

[JaxGator]

GFS 00z never touches Florida and takes a category 5 in to Charleston...

I want NO part of that. The Midlands would definitely see hurricane force winds on that track, moving NW/NNW after landfall.

True, but it was a west shift closer to Florida and the coast. Close enough to have damaging winds, but yes overall it was SC and Gegoria on that run.

[Aric Dunn]

Gusting to 87 - pressure at 973

There's obviously a lag, but how much?

EDIT: It looks like it is 50 minutes behind.

just needs to survive ! and well hopefully the upper limit is above 100 mph.. otherwise it will just peak and never show us anything...


which brings up a good point.. the weather stations all over the world really need some upgrades..

[drewschmaltz]

Gusts to 95 pressure still only at 970.... here we go.