ATL: IRMA - Models

[Aric Dunn]

Crazy shift south. The difference becomes stark since the previous run showed Irma moving NNE away from FL, whereas this time its moving WNW while over Cuba

the reason is very clear and this track makes much more sense given the downstream progession.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Notice how slow it is moving near Cuba. That would be a LOT of rain. Also I have a hard time believing it would be more than a category 1 storm after that long on land.

It's certainly a deluge of downpour, but GFS shows Irma away from the mountains over the SE portion of the island

[weathaguyry]

Moving N right towards Miami @168

[MetroMike]

up the spine of FL??

[Alyono]

884mb into Dade County

[WeatherEmperor]

Nearing landfall in SoFla


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[SFLcane]

Ouch miami in north quandrant

[tgenius]

884mb into Dade County

My god. Wow.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Canadian also shifted south. In the southern Bahamas in 120 hours.

[AxaltaRacing24]

HOLY f#%^

[weathaguyry]

Yep, moves right over tip of S Fla peninsula @174, and splits Florida down the middle @180

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Crazy shift south. The difference becomes stark since the previous run showed Irma moving NNE away from FL, whereas this time its moving WNW while over Cuba

the reason is very clear and this track makes much more sense given the downstream progession.

I had been consistent about a Donna-like track for the past few days... It's becoming more and more likely

[Aric Dunn]

TRap door opening but cant miss FL now

no trap door.. trough has been long gone.. only difference in the last few runs is that random low that developed over the mississippi valley. it is not there now.. so Like i said earlier what woud happen with out that low.. w to a wnw track into the gulf area.

Gfs does show it but looks like it just meanders around Nebraska/Iowa area then slowly starts moving south but shearing out at the same time. Nothing near as strong as before.

not the same feature.. previous ones have the feature you mention merge with a much larger random low that developed. that random low is not there and the small low dropping sse is moving as usual ....

[bamajammer4eva]

Nice bogus 884mb storm as it approaches S FL at 174

[sma10]

Good grief, 902mb inching its way up 80W? Come on, even Hollywood wouldn't buy this story.

[JPmia]

Someone said it earlier.. Donna's revenge!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Irma says hello to Miami. Not too long ago some people were emphatic on Irma going towards NC/SC and missing Florida. Heck, even the GOM may be in play in 06z. I'm anticipating a similar track for the ECMWF as well

[eastcoastFL]

884mb into Dade County

Ok now this is just like watching a horror flick before bed. I want to turn it off but I have to see what happens next.

[crimi481]

Ft Meyers/ Tampa in play

[GeneratorPower]

GFS beating southern FL like a rented mule.