ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

It might have given up, the last report was at 2:24.

just updated.. 2:30

[supercane4867]

The CDO is cooling big time as -80C cloud tops flaring up on NW quadrant. With no double eyewall structure apparent anymore, Irma is likely making a run for 900mb now.

[Aric Dunn]

its still working.. just switched to ssw .. very light .. just be patient..

[Snowman67]

It might have given up, the last report was at 2:24.

just updated.. 2:30

Hard to believe that there is absolutely no wind. I would think we would see at least a couple of knots in the eye. Starting to wonder if it went out?

[rickybobby]

Does Florida have a bubble around it? Saw more models an drew most of them are to the east of Florida now. Guess work and school on Monday.

[southwest southerner]

I'm certain this is a highly amateur question, but why is the air temp rising in the eye?

[ncweatherwizard]

Pressure was still going down at Barbuda in the last ob, so wind should be greater than zero. Anemometer is probably broken, but the wind vane might still be intact since a direction is reported. Typically winds in the eye aren't uniformly calm, but they are light. For example, I saw an earlier dropsonde splash at the center with 11 kt surface winds.

[curtadams]

The Barbuda station has had 0 mph readings three times running so the anemometer must be broken. Pretty impressive it lasted as long as it did.

no its been in the eye.. its a large eye.. watch radar.. then there is about a 15 min lag..

The eye is relatively calm, but not dead calm for 12 minutes. It shouldn't be in the eye anyway - recon got SMFR of 46 knots at that pressure.

[tropicwatch]

[AJC3]

I'm guessing the cup anemometer failed but the direction vane is working.

[drezee]

Pressure was still going down at Barbuda in the last ob, so wind should be greater than zero. Anemometer is probably broken, but the wind vane might still be intact since a direction is reported. Typically winds in the eye aren't uniformly calm, but they are light. For example, I saw an earlier dropsonde splash at the center with 11 kt surface winds.

I completely agree. I imagine winds got to Cat 4 at least. Barometer is also dead.

[shawn6304]

Well, I guess my days of lurking are (somewhat) over - just wanted to thank everyone for the information and guidance so far. I don't get to geek out in non-medical environments often, so it's fascinating watching and learning from the experts.

Inland central Florida (Polk county) here, and I'll be camping at my hospital this weekend as essential ER personnel. yay. not. I was told to plan on it for Wilma, but got lucky for some reason. (I was a very sleep-deprived intern, and don't really remember much from that time.)

As of this morning, there is little bottled water, no generators, and everyone seems a little unnerved, and rightly so. Husband, who is a Florida native, sounds a little more worried than he lets on, but is also essential personnel so we're staying put and hoping for the best.

My wife is in the medical field as well. Thank you for what you do and stay safe.

[1900hurricane]

The CDO is cooling big time as -80C cloud tops flaring up on NW quadrant. With no double eyewall structure apparent anymore, Irma is likely making a run for 900mb now.

I've been watching that too. I actually pulled up the San Juan sounding a few pages back to get an idea of how cold the CDO can get sans overshoots. I'm guessing CMG coverage is about to have a serious increase.

[ncweatherwizard]

I'm certain this is a highly amateur question, but why is the air temp rising in the eye?

Hurricanes have warm cores, but I think the main reason here might be the lack of rainfall in the eye. Evaporative cooling will bring the temperature down as it rains (evaporation requires energy to occur, so the energy is "taken" from the air, resulting in a lowering of the air temperature), but since it's not raining in the eye, the surface air temperature will tend to quickly return toward the ocean temperature.

[Hurrilurker]

its still working.. just switched to ssw .. very light .. just be patient..

I think some parts are working and others are not. Wind direction is still updating but I think wind speed is busted. Skeptical about the barometer as well since it's been stuck on 921.1 for quite a while now. Water level is still updating (and rising).

It looks to me like the platform is about 18 feet off the ground, the instruments maybe another 7-12 feet above that. And the whole station 4.4 feet above mean sea level.

[mrbagyo]

Barbuda is now inside the Eye
Did the center of the eye cross the shore of Barbuda, if not (hairline miss)- would that be still considered as a landfall?

[Aric Dunn]

You would think after sooo many years.. someone would make one that can survive.. its actually rather annoying.. its like the companies that make them dont ever test their limits even though when you buy them they tell you the limits..

[southwest southerner]

I'm certain this is a highly amateur question, but why is the air temp rising in the eye?

Hurricanes have warm cores, but I think the main reason here might be the lack of rainfall in the eye. Evaporative cooling will bring the temperature down as it rains (evaporation requires energy to occur, so the energy is "taken" from the air, resulting in a lowering of the air temperature), but since it's not raining in the eye, the surface air temperature will tend to quickly return toward the ocean temperature.

Very interesting. Thanks!

[Hurrilurker]

You would think after sooo many years.. someone would make one that can survive.. its actually rather annoying.. its like the companies that make them dont ever test their limits even though when you buy them they tell you the limits..

The chances of a direct hit from a Cat-5 hurricane is incredibly small and it probably adds cost to make them that robust (multiply that by thousands around the world and it adds up). But they make planes that can fly through eyewalls so I assume it is possible.

[Aric Dunn]

You would think after sooo many years.. someone would make one that can survive.. its actually rather annoying.. its like the companies that make them dont ever test their limits even though when you buy them they tell you the limits..

The chances of a direct hit from a Cat-5 hurricane is incredibly small and it probably adds cost to make them that robust (multiply that by thousands around the world and it adds up). But they make planes that can fly through eyewalls so I assume it is possible.

being a scientist. I realize this.. though its also ridiculous.