ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneRyan]

Spoke with my Dad who is in Orlando. I forgot until this morning that he lives there now. Him and my half-sister have a plan to get to higher ground if they need to evacuate. So I guess I feel a little better, but hearing that Irma was a Cat 5 this morning and with Florida as a potential place of impact, it made me sick to my stomach - that has NEVER happened in the 14 years of my weather nerding ways.

I'm gonna stay in touch with him. What impacts would Orlando tend to have if Irma made landfall in Florida, depending on the angle?

[drewschmaltz]

There's a chance it is still working. That image of Barbuda in the eye is from 12 minutes ago (when comparing it to the time from the station). The eye is what like 20 miles across? It's moving 15mph. That's an hour of the eye....

[westcoastnative]

The CDO is cooling big time as -80C cloud tops flaring up on NW quadrant. With no double eyewall structure apparent anymore, Irma is likely making a run for 900mb now.

I've been watching that too. I actually pulled up the San Juan sounding a few pages back to get an idea of how cold the CDO can get sans overshoots. I'm guessing CMG coverage is about to have a serious increase.

Hi. Would you please explain what the acronyms CDO and CMG mean? I'm new and trying to understand the terminology.

[supercane4867]

Pressure was still going down at Barbuda in the last ob, so wind should be greater than zero. Anemometer is probably broken, but the wind vane might still be intact since a direction is reported. Typically winds in the eye aren't uniformly calm, but they are light. For example, I saw an earlier dropsonde splash at the center with 11 kt surface winds.

I completely agree. I imagine winds got to Cat 4 at least. Barometer is also dead.

It's a good reason for future reinforcement of these observation site in hurricane active areas. Many of the sites are too fragile that can't even endure CAT3 sustained winds.
Ground observations are critical for surface data thus should be taken more seriously.

[Hurrilurker]

There's a chance it is still working. That image of Barbuda in the eye is from 12 minutes ago (when comparing it to the time from the station). The eye is what like 20 miles across? It's moving 15mph. That's an hour of the eye....

Yes, but hard to believe the wind is exactly 0 the whole time, and zero change in the pressure as well. You'd think there would be a little variance and they are pretty accurate instruments.

[Aric Dunn]

ok well new job .. and out on assignment have to be up early.. but looks like im flying to florida somewhere friday..

[westcoastnative]

Spoke with my Dad who is in Orlando. I forgot until this morning that he lives there now. Him and my half-sister have a plan to get to higher ground if they need to evacuate. So I guess I feel a little better, but hearing that Irma was a Cat 5 this morning and with Florida as a potential place of impact, it made me sick to my stomach - that has NEVER happened in the 14 years of my weather nerding ways.

I'm gonna stay in touch with him. What impacts would Orlando tend to have if Irma made landfall in Florida, depending on the angle?

What "higher ground" in Florida are you referring to? I lived there for 4 years and aside from the overpasses, there's no "high ground" in Florida. Also, Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne all hit Florida in 2004, which was only 13 years ago (or are you saying that a Cat 5 hasn't hit in the past 14 years, in which case, please forgive my misunderstanding).

[1900hurricane]

The CDO is cooling big time as -80C cloud tops flaring up on NW quadrant. With no double eyewall structure apparent anymore, Irma is likely making a run for 900mb now.

I've been watching that too. I actually pulled up the San Juan sounding a few pages back to get an idea of how cold the CDO can get sans overshoots. I'm guessing CMG coverage is about to have a serious increase.

Hi. Would you please explain what the acronyms CDO and CMG mean? I'm new and trying to understand the terminology.

CDO is central dense overcast. It's the area of cold cloud tops that surrounds the eye. CMG means cold medium grey cloud tops. It's the second coldest color shade on the Basic Dvorak enhanced infrared color curve.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 1:48am AST:

[westcoastnative]

I've been watching that too. I actually pulled up the San Juan sounding a few pages back to get an idea of how cold the CDO can get sans overshoots. I'm guessing CMG coverage is about to have a serious increase.

Hi. Would you please explain what the acronyms CDO and CMG mean? I'm new and trying to understand the terminology.

CDO is central dense overcast. It's the area of cold cloud tops that surrounds the eye. CMG means cold medium grey cloud tops. It's the second coldest color shade on the Basic Dvorak enhanced infrared color curve.

Thank you! I appreciate the explanation.

[HurricaneRyan]

Spoke with my Dad who is in Orlando. I forgot until this morning that he lives there now. Him and my half-sister have a plan to get to higher ground if they need to evacuate. So I guess I feel a little better, but hearing that Irma was a Cat 5 this morning and with Florida as a potential place of impact, it made me sick to my stomach - that has NEVER happened in the 14 years of my weather nerding ways.

I'm gonna stay in touch with him. What impacts would Orlando tend to have if Irma made landfall in Florida, depending on the angle?

What "higher ground" in Florida are you referring to? I lived there for 4 years and aside from the overpasses, there's no "high ground" in Florida. Also, Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne all hit Florida in 2004, which was only 13 years ago (or are you saying that a Cat 5 hasn't hit in the past 14 years, in which case, please forgive my misunderstanding).

What I mean is that the fact that it is already 185 mph winds and it still has four to five days over water really made me stick to my stomach. This has the potential to hit the US as a major hurricane if it keeps its act together.

[tropicwatch]

Spoke with my Dad who is in Orlando. I forgot until this morning that he lives there now. Him and my half-sister have a plan to get to higher ground if they need to evacuate. So I guess I feel a little better, but hearing that Irma was a Cat 5 this morning and with Florida as a potential place of impact, it made me sick to my stomach - that has NEVER happened in the 14 years of my weather nerding ways.

I'm gonna stay in touch with him. What impacts would Orlando tend to have if Irma made landfall in Florida, depending on the angle?

What "higher ground" in Florida are you referring to? I lived there for 4 years and aside from the overpasses, there's no "high ground" in Florida. Also, Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne all hit Florida in 2004, which was only 13 years ago (or are you saying that a Cat 5 hasn't hit in the past 14 years, in which case, please forgive my misunderstanding).

Space Mountain

[southwest southerner]

Barometer appears to be working again at Barbuda weather obs station.

[sponger]

Barometer appears to be working again at Barbuda weather obs station.

Maybe someone ran out and pulled a twig out of it.

[bohaiboy]

6.4 ft water level. May rise even more as winds swing around from the WSW

[southwest southerner]

Water level rising rapidly...over 8 feet now.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 2:08am AST (both using a little bit older full disk GOES-16 image):



Wider view without recon:



With 1 minute imagery:

[sponger]

Anyone find the projected storm surge?

[FLeastcoast]

I am trying to pack my things to evacuate tomorrow..I can't find the most current update ad really don't have time to dig for it..can 1 of you please tell me is they are leaning towards it going up the gulf side or the east side or crossing over or the the horrible horrible going down the middle scenario thanks

[sponger]

I am trying to pack my things to evacuate tomorrow..I can't find the most current update ad really don't have time to dig for it..can 1 of you please tell me is they are leaning towards it going up the gulf side or the east side or crossing over or the the horrible horrible going down the middle scenario thanks

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