ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

Next station that should get into Irma's eye

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... L3#history

Pressure in inches, yuck. Multiply by 33.86 to get mb.

The only non metric reading I can't register.

[southwest southerner]

St. Barth's live cam....situation deteriorating quickly.

http://st-barth.com/livecam3.html

[sponger]

I think my over prepping is pushing Irma East on model runs. 41 gallons of gas for the generator today plus 1 hour 20 minutes waiting for 2 cans of propane. I am going to buy 400 cases of Ramen tomorrow to test my theory.

[FLeastcoast]

Knoxville news just had a headline that reads..Will Hurricane Irma hit East Tennessee.....f my life...this bi..ch is following me!! after hundreds of dollars and miles of driving...still might not escape her...granted...she will be much weaker...hope there is no flooding or tornados uuugh

[Hurrilurker]

St. Barth's live cam....situation deteriorating quickly.

http://st-barth.com/livecam3.html

Yep, you can see the waves are starting to crash over the wall. That wasn't happening 1/2 hour ago. Lightning also visible. Getting hard to make out details though with all the water on the lens.

[southwest southerner]

If you prefer more of a "blair witch project" feel, here's the Anguilla Cam over Barnes' Bay. You can see a slight flicker every now and then, but otherwise it is completely pitch black. Pretty haunting.

https://www.earthcam.com/world/anguilla/meadsbay/?cam=barnesbay

[sponger]

Look at the swell forecast for Florida! 40 foot plus!

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ww3_conus&prod=sgwvht&dtg=2017090600&set=SeaState

[Chris90]

Still 160 kt as of the 06Z best track update. That's 18 hours now, tying Tip '79 and Patricia '15 at >=160 kt. Irma still trails Haiyan '13 and Meranti '16.

That's quite impressive, especially because she's the only Atlantic hurricane on that list. She achieved 160kts at a higher pressure than all the rest of them as well I believe.

I've seen from some of your posts that you seem to be pretty knowledgeable on the dvorak technique. I don't know a lot about it and I was wondering if a storm's symmetry is factored into it at all? I know a lot of it has to do with their cloud tops and the color they register as, as well as measuring how thick of a ring they manage to achieve in the more intense colors, but It seems the storms with improved symmetry are able to hold their intensities for longer durations. It also seems like ADT was underestimating the true intensity of Irma today.

[Hurrilurker]

That bay in St. Barts is already looking ferocious and still a long way to go until the worst part gets there. I can't imagine how bad that's going to be for them. When I was there there were tons of boats docked in the bay including some VERY expensive yachts. I have to think there's going to be a lot of those piled up tomorrow if not washed out to sea or deep onto land.

[HurricaneEdouard]

Really good question and I'm not even sure it has happened. To me it looks like the closest was Hugo in 1985, but I think it was still Cat-4 when passing the northern islands. Isabel was Cat-5 around that longitude, but pretty significantly north of the islands. Before that the 1928 Okechobee hurricane was close. Much more rare than I had thought.

Hugo 1989

Sorry corrected.

The 1780 Great Hurricane was very likely a Category 5 hurricane at landfall. Other than that, I'm actually struggling to think of a Category 5 hurricane making landfall in the Leewards; I don't believe there has been since reliable records began.

Still 160 kt as of the 06Z best track update. That's 18 hours now, tying Tip '79 and Patricia '15 at >=160 kt. Irma still trails Haiyan '13 and Meranti '16.

There hasn't been data to support 160 knots for hours. I think the NHC will nudge it down to 150 knots in post-storm analysis, even though pressures are lower.

[Sanibel]

The Euro shift once again makes it a perfectly agonizing choice that continues to split indecision right down the middle with dire consequences on either side...


The answer is to wait further and get further sucked in to the trap of inescapability...


Will the trending turn come?


Or will NHC be right on track once again?

[LarryWx]

Someone knock on wood. This is some meaty, juicy, eat your words material right here.

Did no one knock on wood?

Doesn't seem like an eat-crow statement at this point, does anyone really think this is a sub 900 storm when it reaches NC? I think most people believed it had a good chance at Cat.5 at some point.

Good post. Yes, in all fairness to met. DT, he was referring to the 880's GFS SLP offshore the NC/SC border, which would be like 50 mb stronger than anything on record there (Hazel had the record) and, therefore, not at all believable for that location from his perspective. However, I didn't agree with his wanting to totally ignore the GFS for guidance because of this. So, not yet an eat-crow and hopefully for the sake of NC/SC never will be. We'll see.

[Hurrilurker]

914mb, lowest yet. Let's see if the eye passing over the small but mountainous St. Bart's knocks it down at all.

[Sanibel]

There was a full moon tonight which means people in terror from possibly having their roof ripped off got to see Irma mocking them with a beautiful inner eyewall moonlit scene as the eye passed over them...

[Hurrilurker]

St. Bart's seeing 1 lightning strike about every 15 seconds.

[HurricaneEdouard]

St. Bart's seeing 1 lightning strike about every 15 seconds.

I was noticing that too. Rare and indicative of how intense it is!

Also... where is everyone? We have a landfalling Category 5 and I feel like there were more people online during Patricia's overnight explosive strengthening.

[doomhaMwx]

Microwave image of Category 5 Irma as its eye was passing over Barbuda island!

[brghteys1216]

^^ Heres a live cam from St. Barts. Lightning indeed!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hG-GpHPkBoM

[HurricaneEdouard]

Interesting. I'm not seeing strong signs of concentric eyewalls on microwave imagery. Perhaps why it seems to have slightly deepened? Yet it's definitely looking
less symmetrical, the cooling cloudtops likely because of nighttime rather than indicative of strengthening.

[jlauderdal]

I think my over prepping is pushing Irma East on model runs. 41 gallons of gas for the generator today plus 1 hour 20 minutes waiting for 2 cans of propane. I am going to buy 400 cases of Ramen tomorrow to test my theory.

i bought 50 yesterday, whatever works to keep it away