ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs/status/905377835774353408

[jlauderdal]

They move the track to the right but not as much as close to the GFS.

96H 10/0600Z 24.0N 80.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 26.5N 80.9W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND

exactly as we thought, shocking ..so to se florida peeps, the trend is clearly in our favor so dont flip out that the core is right on us and we are on the dirty side, there was no way nhc was going to go way right offshore for reasons explained in the disco and our posts earlier...if we get a few more cycles of it offshore they will keep adjusting, the downside is we have a major hurricane on top of us in the nhc track currently...we need it to move at least 100 miles east, lets see what the modeling especially ensembles yield today

Yeah, this track is going to freak a lot of people out this morning, but may actually be "better news" for us if this begins an east trend. Every mile east counts for something and could mean the difference between something manageable and the eyewall of this ridiculous storm that thinks it is a WPac super typhoon. I'm really confident that my building and my parents' homes can deal with 120mph winds. I'm a lot less confident about a 185mph 1935 Labor Day redux.

east trend is good but its just the start, can easily come back and ultimately we get a direct hit...120 for my 1966 house sounds ok, lets see how the concrete houses stood up in the islands, that will give us a decent idea but this is for older florida construction concrete with steel mesh like mine...if you are in a newer home i have no idea but wouldnt trust it to big time winds

[mrbagyo]

Morning visible

[NDG]

GOES 16 HR pix of Irma this morning.

[ronjon]

Wow looks like those islands are being sucked down a storm drain. Full stadium effect on the SAT pic.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Terrifying to imagine the conditions the island is facing currently..

[KBBOCA]

reposted below. sorry

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/905383505919705089

[NDG]

Looking at the radar during the past 4 hours Irma has gained only .2 of a degree in Latitude while it gained 1 degree in Longitude. If it continues the eye could very well track right over the Virgin Islands, at least the British ones.

[Patrick99]

Also to my eye, looks a little close for comfort for PR.

[Gustywind]

Hi fellows,
i have to reported very bad news from St Marteen given a journalist who is based on a hotel at St Marteen.
Looks like numerous houses have not roofs, cars are everywhere in many roads, water everywhere. He was himself fighting against water in his room who where spreading and the roof going out of his room. Very catastrophic situation in the Northern...
Source: RCI GUADELOUPE ( Radio Caraibes International).
http://rcigp.radio.fr/

[KBBOCA]

Got to sign off in a few minutes... but one last tweet - Irma has broken Allen's 24 hour ACE record:

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905385156076126212

[capepoint]

I have yet to find any wind reports from the affected islands that are above 120. Here's hoping that the 180 wind estimates are way over-inflated.

[PandaCitrus]

Damage videos from tourist riding out storm during eye on St. Maarten in oceanfront hotel room.

 https://twitter.com/internetofzings/status/905383466283491328




 https://twitter.com/internetofzings/status/905384141054779395

[Gustywind]

Here is a major link to have all the news for St Marteen: Facebook of RCI
You will see mini videos, very very awfull: :

https://fr-fr.facebook.com/RCIGUADELOUPE971/

[flamingosun]

Port Everglades at Ft Lauderdale has gone to PORT CONDITION WHISKEY as of 6 AM this morning, and anticipates going to CONDITION XRAY tomorrow.

WHISKEY means that commercial vessels and barges greater than 500 gt and all oceangoing barges must report to the Coast Guard Captain of the Port their intention to put out to sea or stay.

XRAY means the aforementioned vessels and their supporting tugs must prepare to leave unless they have received official permission to stay in port.

Next come Port Conditions Yankee and Zulu.
At YANKEE, port traffic control is implemented. Those vessels without special permission to remain in port must get out. Those with that permission must implement final mooring arrangements.
ZULU means port CLOSED. Nobody In or Out.

[Gustywind]

Even the authorities said THAT Irma is already a DISASTER
I have no words, MSBEE PLEASE STAY WITH US.... hope you're safe and dry!
Gustywind

[WeatherGuesser]

And we still don't know which side of FL for sure.

[Ken711]

If it keeps going east is it a Carolina threat or OTS? Is the North Easy coast stilll safe or could they start getting into play?

I'd say OTS percentage low. I'm thinking Isabel track at landfall.

an Isabel track? This is not going to hit eastern NC moving at a 310 heading. No chance at that. It could hit NC, but would be moving at about a 20 degree heading if it did. Not comparable to Isabel at all

Understood thanks. How far up the NC coast could you see this reasonably go. Is there the ridge along the SC and NC weaker than originally forecast?

[Alyono]

I have yet to find any wind reports from the affected islands that are above 120. Here's hoping that the 180 wind estimates are way over-inflated.

they're not over estimated. You won't get ground confirmation because the instruments break well before then, just like at Barbuda