ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dukeblue219]

I have yet to find any wind reports from the affected islands that are above 120. Here's hoping that the 180 wind estimates are way over-inflated.

They're not "inflated" as we have direct measurement from eyewall dropsondes. Its rare though for land stations to record sustained winds at the official level. For starters, I'm pretty sure I saw data from Barbuda a few pages back that had 155mph gusts before the anemometer failed. But beyond that you have more frictional interaction on land and rarely an official weather station in exactly the right place in the strongest quadrant of the storm.

[KBBOCA]

Damage videos from tourist riding out storm during eye on St. Maarten in oceanfront hotel room.

 https://twitter.com/internetofzings/status/905383466283491328




 https://twitter.com/internetofzings/status/905384141054779395

SADLY, NO, WORST NOT YET OVER. THEY"RE IN THE EYE. MORE TO COME.

[Alyono]

I'd say OTS percentage low. I'm thinking Isabel track at landfall.

an Isabel track? This is not going to hit eastern NC moving at a 310 heading. No chance at that. It could hit NC, but would be moving at about a 20 degree heading if it did. Not comparable to Isabel at all

Understood thanks. How far up the NC coast could you see this reasonably go. Is there the ridge along the SC and NC weaker than originally forecast?

it's more likely South Carolina. I do not see hurricane conditions in Virginia at this time. Chances of that are slight. Greater chance of TS winds though

[ronjon]

Utter devastation in St Martin

https://www.facebook.com/RCIGUADELOUPE971/videos/vb.207481349644/10155794580239645/?type=2&theater

[RL3AO]

Got to sign off in a few minutes... but one last tweet - Irma has broken Allen's 24 hour ACE record:

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905385156076126212

Irma produced 10.1 ACE in 24 hours. Harvey produced 11.1 during its entire lifetime.

[Kingarabian]

Why are various news stations saying Irma is now the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever? On google, notable news stations are stating as such.

[weunice]

Because Wilma, Glibert, Allen etc. were Carribean / Gulf storms thus making Irma the strongest "Atlantic" hurricane on record. It is deceiving somewhat since we call the whole basin Atlantic.

[WeatherGuesser]

ATL record for continuous duration as Cat 5 belongs to ... ?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd be surprised if the recon finds 185mph again, storm still looks impressive but the CDO isn't quite as symmetrical. Still think it's a solid Cat 5 though.

[brghteys1216]

 https://twitter.com/RCI_GP/status/905381154970329088

[GCANE]

I just checked some of the latest satellites and rain rate on the eyewall was still off scale a few hours ago.
AF307 is nearing the eye now.
God have mercy.

[RL3AO]

Why are various news stations saying Irma is now the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever? On google, notable news stations are stating as such.

Because it had the strongest winds in the "Atlantic Ocean" because apparently the GOM and Caribbean aren't part of the Atlantic anymore...

[NDG]

Why are various news stations saying Irma is now the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever? On google, notable news stations are stating as such.

Probably because of what the NHC said yesterday before it entered the Caribbean, that it was the strongest Atlantic Hurricane outside of the Caribbean and GOM area.

[GCANE]

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061124
AF307 1211A IRMA HDOB 24 20170906
111430 1851N 06354W 6968 03119 //// +094 //// 059062 063 053 001 01
111500 1850N 06353W 6966 03121 //// +099 //// 059060 061 055 001 01
111530 1849N 06352W 6967 03113 //// +097 //// 059059 061 056 001 01
111600 1848N 06351W 6968 03105 //// +095 //// 058059 060 055 003 01
111630 1846N 06350W 6962 03109 0006 +098 //// 051060 062 056 005 01
111700 1845N 06348W 6974 03093 0013 +106 +106 049067 070 055 008 03
111730 1844N 06347W 6960 03108 0009 +105 +105 049068 070 060 009 00
111800 1842N 06346W 6968 03094 0009 +109 +109 054074 080 059 012 00
111830 1841N 06345W 6955 03105 0004 +113 +113 064081 085 059 024 03
111900 1840N 06344W 6972 03076 9992 +107 +107 066079 082 060 016 03
111930 1839N 06343W 6957 03093 9971 +108 //// 064077 079 060 009 01
112000 1838N 06342W 6968 03083 9981 +100 //// 066081 083 059 005 01
112030 1837N 06341W 6967 03072 //// +093 //// 071082 084 062 002 01
112100 1836N 06340W 6968 03060 9938 +100 +096 072082 083 064 001 01
112130 1835N 06339W 6977 03048 9925 +100 +097 071085 087 066 002 01
112200 1834N 06338W 6965 03048 9952 +097 //// 070087 091 068 003 01
112230 1832N 06337W 6964 03042 9933 +103 //// 068090 092 069 006 01
112300 1831N 06336W 6970 03034 //// +080 //// 070093 097 069 004 01
112330 1830N 06335W 6959 03033 //// +090 //// 069098 099 070 002 01
112400 1829N 06334W 6970 03013 9900 +098 //// 069102 104 070 005 01

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061134
AF307 1211A IRMA HDOB 25 20170906
112430 1828N 06333W 6974 02989 9880 +098 //// 069110 113 073 005 01
112500 1827N 06333W 6971 02989 9881 +109 +109 070108 110 074 006 00
112530 1826N 06332W 6967 02983 9876 +099 +099 072113 114 075 006 00
112600 1825N 06331W 6967 02972 //// +093 //// 072114 114 075 003 01
112630 1824N 06330W 6959 02972 9823 +099 //// 070114 115 075 004 01
112700 1824N 06329W 6975 02947 9808 +109 +095 069114 114 079 002 00
112730 1823N 06328W 6963 02948 9799 +108 +100 067115 117 084 005 00
112800 1822N 06327W 6965 02938 9788 +112 +109 063118 119 089 015 00
112830 1821N 06327W 6967 02919 9799 +110 +110 060123 125 089 027 00
112900 1820N 06326W 6960 02906 9784 +101 +101 056128 130 093 036 00
112930 1819N 06325W 6971 02862 9764 +103 +103 057137 139 108 064 03
113000 1818N 06324W 6965 02841 9712 +122 +122 063141 143 123 072 03
113030 1817N 06323W 6980 02786 9676 +125 +125 064145 148 138 073 00
113100 1816N 06323W 6955 02779 9623 +135 +135 067147 152 146 064 00
113130 1816N 06322W 6960 02739 9583 +138 +138 072146 150 144 064 00
113200 1815N 06321W 6965 02691 9532 +141 +141 074145 150 146 061 00
113230 1814N 06321W 6948 02675 9491 +140 +140 076149 151 149 029 03
113300 1813N 06320W 6944 02635 9430 +142 //// 075133 146 152 022 05
113330 1811N 06320W 6958 02571 //// +126 //// 069103 120 151 000 01
113400 1809N 06319W 6969 02516 //// +136 //// 066085 094 142 000 01

[N2tropicAL]

I have yet to find any wind reports from the affected islands that are above 120. Here's hoping that the 180 wind estimates are way over-inflated.

they're not over estimated. You won't get ground confirmation because the instruments break well before then, just like at Barbuda

I saw the last report was about 154 mph before failure...

[SouthDadeFish]

Raw ADT still supporting a 7.0... This storm just keeps going. Recon just measured 152 kt SFMR.

[Extratropical94]

I'd be surprised if the recon finds 185mph again, storm still looks impressive but the CDO isn't quite as symmetrical. Still think it's a solid Cat 5 though.

You are correct. 152kt FL and 151kt SFMR unflagged. NW quadrant, so she might be around 155 knots right now.

[hurricaneCW]

Worst is yet to come for those two islands, strongest winds should be on the east and they've already seen devastation.