ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Airboy]

Looks on radar the maybe it's doing a stall and start of a SW loop, let's wait and see.

[sbcc]

Found what appears to be a message from Jim Edds that he, Jeff Piotrowski, and Jeff Gammons made it through the back side of the eyewall just fine, but the tractor/trailer flipped over: https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms

So, Jeff did not evacuate Rockport, nor is he dead. No word yet on the blue shed.

[ncbird]

Found what appears to be a message from Jim Edds that he, Jeff Piotrowski, and Jeff Gammons made it through the back side of the eyewall just fine, but the tractor/trailer flipped over: https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms

So, Jeff did not evacuate Rockport, nor is he dead. No word yet on the blue shed.

I want one of those blue sheds. I get tired of replacing mine every time we get hit.

[dexterlabio]

Even if the eye degrades, as long as the skeleton (structure) is still intact, it will easily re-intensify once it loops back over water. I've never heard of landfalling major canes having this complex track modeling. I see this kind of complex setup of strong hurricanes/typhoons more often in the Pacific. Most of the time, the result is awful damage and loss of lives, not because of wind hazard, but because of tremendous volume of water.

[CryHavoc]

Even if the eye degrades, as long as the skeleton (structure) is still intact, it will easily re-intensify once it loops back over water. I've never heard of landfalling major canes having this complex track modeling. I see this kind of complex setup of strong hurricanes/typhoons more often in the Pacific. Most of the time, the result is awful damage and loss of lives, not because of wind hazard, but because of tremendous volume of water.

This is actually not unheard of. Anytime you have a cyclone that stalls and does not have a steering mechanism, it's going to be really tough to figure out where it goes, because there's no catalyst for pushing it anywhere. Minor changes in the atmosphere could make all the difference in guidance, and we just don't have that firm of an understanding at that nuanced level.

I really feel that 15-20 years ago they wouldn't even have been in the ballpark of calling where this storm was going.

[artist]

Jim Edds, Jeff Piotrowski, and Jeff Gammons are all together and safe.

Victoria, Tx, twc is reporting from there and has a report of 9.37" of rain so far.

[bamajammer4eva]

Even if the eye degrades, as long as the skeleton (structure) is still intact, it will easily re-intensify once it loops back over water. I've never heard of landfalling major canes having this complex track modeling. I see this kind of complex setup of strong hurricanes/typhoons more often in the Pacific. Most of the time, the result is awful damage and loss of lives, not because of wind hazard, but because of tremendous volume of water.

Think of the storms that have traversed the Southeast US from like Mobile, AL to the Carolinas and offshore. Advisories have been re-initiated upon hitting the water. It doesn't take much being offshore at all as we already saw Harvey continue to strengthen very close to landfall today.

[chaser1]

Looks on radar the maybe it's doing a stall and start of a SW loop, let's wait and see.

You could be right about a stall. Though not quite seeing a change in overall motion per satellite, the more up to date radar does appear to suggest that Harvey's forward pace to the northwest might have at minimum slowed down. The next couple hours will certainly verify whether the anticipated stall has occurred. Amazing what a difference 6 hours makes, huh? Had Harvey moved a tad slower & perhaps taking about 6 hours longer to make its initial landfall, we'd possibly be witnessing an even worse crisis where the coast would potentially have been relentlessly pounded for 2-3 days by Cat. 1-3 hurricane force winds. With Harvey well enough inland, it should end up being downgraded to a T.S. in 24-36 hours instead. Not a good scenario as things stand right now, but thank heaven an even worse case scenario had not taken place. Regardless, the flooding impact yet to occur will likely be epic.

[chaser1]

Jim Edds, Jeff Piotrowski, and Jeff Gammons are all together and safe.

Victoria, Tx, twc is reporting from there and has a report of 9.37" of rain so far.

Yikes!! 9.37" rain thus far??? In what, just the last 4-6 hours or so? I've never chased a hurricane where I had considered flotation devices as part of my prep before. Sure hope these guys did!

[bamajammer4eva]

Even if the eye degrades, as long as the skeleton (structure) is still intact, it will easily re-intensify once it loops back over water. I've never heard of landfalling major canes having this complex track modeling. I see this kind of complex setup of strong hurricanes/typhoons more often in the Pacific. Most of the time, the result is awful damage and loss of lives, not because of wind hazard, but because of tremendous volume of water.

This is actually not unheard of. Anytime you have a cyclone that stalls and does not have a steering mechanism, it's going to be really tough to figure out where it goes, because there's no catalyst for pushing it anywhere. Minor changes in the atmosphere could make all the difference in guidance, and we just don't have that firm of an understanding at that nuanced level.

I really feel that 15-20 years ago they wouldn't even have been in the ballpark of calling where this storm was going.

Never know where it may go--23 yrs ago 1994 Hurricane Gordon track-yep they can do crazy things

[chaser1]

Granted that the further inland Harvey continues to move, the more disrupted it's inner core will become with the obvious reduction in max wind speeds. Having said that, I'm really impressed with the lack of core degradation thus far. Cloud tops have obviously warmed but Harvey's eye structure remains extremely distinct and has constricted over the past couple of hours. Only during the last 1 or 2 frames, am I beginning to see what appears to be dryer air starting to work it's way towards (and soon into) it's core.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like a training outer band is trying to establish itself through the heart of Houston (Downtown). The Southern/SW suburbs have been getting pounded for hours. Will be watching the radar closely. May finally be the start of showtime for Houston proper.

[Cyclenall]

So even with a historic hurricane impact the cliches are a plenty - "could've been worse!" and the western Gulf/BOC special of "if this thing had one more day over water man think of the disaster and strength of it!". The storms that strengthen in the western Gulf always get that cliche every single time I've seen one occur! A lot of the small core TCs especially. It always could be worse, no matter what. A TC could always have more time over water but then ERCs and numerous other things can weaken it. I never read the opposite of "if this hurricane had another 12 hours over the western Gulf imagine the eyewall replacement cycle that could have started and weakened this thing!". Never read that which is what would happen half the time.

[Cpv17]

The band of rain that's coming into Houston right now is no joke. We got 40-50mph winds here in Wharton from it along with 5 inches of rain in one hour.

[megsy]

We are in a pretty heavy band right now in Katy. Tried getting some sleep but alarms from NWS keep going off. Wonder how much rain we've gotten thus far - it seems like it's been non-stop for hours and our pool looks like it's having a hard time keeping up draining overflow.

[Cpv17]

We are in a pretty heavy band right now in Katy. Tried getting some sleep but alarms from NWS keep going off. Wonder how much rain we've gotten thus far - it seems like it's been non-stop for hours and our pool looks like it's having a hard time keeping up draining overflow.

That same band you're experiencing in Katy is the same one we had here in Wharton. It was some of the heaviest rain I've ever seen in my lifetime. 5-6 inches of rain in one hour isn't something you hear about too often. We now have gotten 11 inches in about an 18 hour period.

[megsy]

We are in a pretty heavy band right now in Katy. Tried getting some sleep but alarms from NWS keep going off. Wonder how much rain we've gotten thus far - it seems like it's been non-stop for hours and our pool looks like it's having a hard time keeping up draining overflow.

That same band you're experiencing in Katy is the same one we had here in Wharton. It was some of the heaviest rain I've ever seen in my lifetime. 5-6 inches of rain in one hour isn't something you hear about too often. We now have gotten 11 inches in about an 18 hour period.

Yikes, stay safe! We have DIRECTV so haven't had a signal for hours ... just saw about 3 min of Herzog before it went out again. Looks like we are in area ripe for tornadoes.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/901391293368107009

[Blinhart]

Has anyone heard about the situation of evacuees that were stuck on I-37?????

[Blinhart]

This is the best looking Cat 1 over land that I have ever seen. Looking at the radar I would of guessed that this was no weaker than a Cat2/3 storm. Now if he can keep his inner structure and get about 50 to 100 miles off shore he has the potential to explode back up to a Major Hurricane before making his 3rd and possibly 4th Landfall. The reason I said 3rd and 4th landfall is because we don't know where he would come in at and if there is barrier islands before the mainland it would be considered 2 different landfalls just like earlier tonight.