ATL: IRMA - Models

[wxmann_91]

I knew Irma would get unusually far west, but I didn't think a landfall in Cuba had much chance of occurring.

Yeah. Kinda reminiscent of Matthew's big shift west last year. Just a huge shift in 1-2 model cycles that nobody saw coming.

[USTropics]

Paralleling the coast.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Approaching the coast.

[blp]

Mimicking GFS. Big shift southwest closer to Cuba

Everything is mimicking the recon data at this point. Scary agreement.

Yes great point the consistency has now started since recon. Not a coincidence.

[M3gaMatch]

trough interaction appearing @ 144hrs. Here comes the recurve to the N.

[TheProfessor]

Read the fine print. I said it's out a little further than most sites. If you look at the fine print, it tells you which run is which. The hour I linked everyone to is the last frame of the 0z run.

You're wrong, click the next hour on the run and it changes yesterday's 12z run. It's only 0z when you're at 72 hours or less. Edit: Changes at 96 hours not 72.

Nah, I wasn't wrong. Lol.
Fine print, people. Fine print. I linked everyone to a 0z image.

Sorry, I thought you were saying the whole run was the 0z, which is why I said it changes to the 12z run.

[TheProfessor]

Looks like the Euro might do something similar as the 0z GFS

[Aric Dunn]

I knew Irma would get unusually far west, but I didn't think a landfall in Cuba had much chance of occurring.

I figured it was a possibility after the trough begin to lift out and seing nothing to pick it up .. besides of course that weird random low showed up in the models.. but realized if that was not there then ridging would build in and a more westerly motion was going to happen.. pretty straight forward.

[USTropics]

Read the fine print. I said it's out a little further than most sites. If you look at the fine print, it tells you which run is which. The hour I linked everyone to is the last frame of the 0z run.

You're wrong, click the next hour on the run and it changes yesterday's 12z run. It's only 0z when you're at 72 hours or less. Edit: Changes at 96 hours not 72.

Nah, I wasn't wrong. Lol.
Fine print, people. Fine print. I linked everyone to a 0z image.

What Mississippi is trying to say is that they linked to an 00z image (which was 72 hours, the last image before the abrupt delay). On weather.us, if you click the next image and the 00z isn't available, it will direct you to the previous 12z run.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Hour 168 moving NNE brushing S Florida.. doesn't show landfall

[AxaltaRacing24]

Scarping SFL

[Alyono]

ec is still east of Florida

[bella_may]

That's an extremely sharp turn at 168. Seems fishy to me

[bamajammer4eva]

Scarping SFL
[img]https://i.imgur.com/RhcBpJv.png

VERY similar to GFS at that hour just 50 miles to the east and 30mb higher

[xironman]

Looks like the trough over New England breaks down the ridge to allow it to take a hard right. This is going to be a close one.

[blp]

ec is still east of Florida

Major shift though SW from 12z but now the outlier to the right. Amazing swings going on.

[RL3AO]

Don't think it's gonna miss NC this run.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well...06z GFS runs in 2.5 hours. Suppose I should go get some sleep. Goodnight all.

[M3gaMatch]

depends if the first trough in NE remains in play or gets replaced by the ridge

[Aric Dunn]

however the 00z euro delays that weird random low over the MS valley it still develops it enough .. just farther west.. if the trend continues...there wont be any north motion for a few more days until the next short wave comes..