ATL: IRMA - Models

[Aric Dunn]

however the 00z euro delays that weird random low over the MS valley it still develops it enough .. just farther west.. if the trend continues...there wont be any north motion for a few more days until the next short wave comes..

[sma10]

This is quickly becoming the weirdest storm ive ever tracked

[birddogsc]

That's an extremely sharp turn at 168. Seems fishy to me

All the models are showing sharp turns... this one more than others, but the turn is consistent.

[bamajammer4eva]

Wow anticipating the turn N who evacuates?? FL or further Northward??

[AxaltaRacing24]

The close proximity to FL when making that turn is ridiculous.

[wxmann_91]

inland NC hr 216

[AxaltaRacing24]

SC/NC landfall

[Aric Dunn]

That's an extremely sharp turn at 168. Seems fishy to me

All the models are showing sharp turns... this one more than others, but the turn is consistent.

it shall change in the coming days.

[RL3AO]

And over my head at 216 hr.

[bamajammer4eva]

however the 00z euro delays that weird random low over the MS valley it still develops it enough .. just farther west.. if the trend continues...there wont be any north motion for a few more days until the next short wave comes..

where does it go then?? Western Gulf??

[xironman]

Looks like Wilmington NC is under the gun this round

[M3gaMatch]

and there's the Carolina's landfall again - this run differs from 12z euro in that after +192hrs NE trough exits the NE instead of sitting there off the Canadian Coast as a huge cut off low.

[Steve]

depends if the first trough in NE remains in play or gets replaced by the ridge

Euro should bring it in. But it's one of the farthest eastern outliers. Even NAVGEM is west of there. Strange twist for the EC. Let's see if it landfalls.

Haha pwnd. I stopped typing for a bit and it landfalled. GFS has been most on top of the pattern in the US I think. Not at first, but it got the west Canada high and a sharp left turn inland 2 days ago. Even as it dropped landfall south from New England to the mid-Atlantic etc. it always had that inland west move. Admittedly we all said 8 days ago that it was turning it up to quick. It always does. But in a bit of a surprise with the Euro now trending toward everything else, we have a problem next weekend.

[crimi481]

just more trending this run. Small steps

[birddogsc]

it shall change in the coming days.

I have a feeling it will as well. Do you think that the ridge erosion is being overdone by the models?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The Euro's timing and positioning of the recurve seems bizarre. Abrupt NNE turn? But important to note, this is a dramatic shift yet again. Probably overdoing the break in the ridge triggered by the trough

[MississippiWx]

Main player is some sort of big cut off low that forms over the Southeast. The upper low eats away at the ridge in the Atlantic and opens up the north gate for Irma. When/if that happens is huge. Still looking at a 6-7 day forecast there. A lot will change the next three days.

The big key is the large southwest shift all the models have made in the short to medium range. Bad news for Florida unless Cuba interferes first.

[sma10]

The close proximity to FL when making that turn is ridiculous.

Good grief could there actually be merit to that GFS tonight?? If the euro corrects just a tiny bit to the northwest, it stays over water the whole time and would go straight up 80-81w. I need a drink.

[Aric Dunn]

however the 00z euro delays that weird random low over the MS valley it still develops it enough .. just farther west.. if the trend continues...there wont be any north motion for a few more days until the next short wave comes..

where does it go then?? Western Gulf??

western gulf is very low..

[northjaxpro]

One thing to take away from this EURO 0Z run: The Southeast GOM is back in play. It would not take much more of a shift west for Irma to get in the Gulf, after this EURO run s h owed.

There will be more changes coming until we hopefully get a clear cut idea how this will evolve later this week!