ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

I also see a feeder band moving in to Galveston and Houston.

[forecasterjack]

I also see a feeder band moving in to Galveston and Houston.

I saw that too. Very strong feature. https://weather.us/radar-us/texas/refle ... .html#play

[tolakram]

Picture of the NHC interactive track map.

source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/093338.shtml?gm_track#contents

[northjaxpro]

It looks as if Harvey is beginning to slowly drift north on radar or my eyes are deceiving me. The inner core still remarkably in tact.. Harvey is literally crawling.

Victoria, TX is getting tgevworst if the wind and rain at this time.

Your eyes aren't deceiving you. Look at the official coordinates. It's been at 97.2W since 3 CDT.

Yeah, it does indicate and verify that due north drift. Thanks for confirming. I know my eyes are tired from being up most of the night following the developments. However, I thought the north drift had indeed happened.

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[drezee]

The West component of the motion has ceased. May go straight to SE by 10pm tonight

[tolakram]

He was with JeffP so I assume all are ok.

 https://twitter.com/StormVisuals/status/901423231223156736




Earlier

 https://twitter.com/StormVisuals/status/901357853943922689

[Blinhart]

So Harvey is trying to do opposite of what NHC says he should be doing, says he should be moving NW right now, if he continues slowly crawling N, I could see him looping NE, E, SE and back out into the GoM at about the same spot he came in and start building strength again. No I don't have any evidence or scientific information to back this, just gut feeling that we haven't seen the last of Harvey doing what he wants, where he wants, when he wants. I can see him getting out 100 miles or so out into the GoM before deciding to start moving N or NNE and head to Louisiana and continue strengthening to a Major again.

[northjaxpro]

College Station is about to get pummeled by that intense feeder band rotating toward them at this hour. I am fairly certain that tornado cells are embedded within that large band, not to omit mention of torrential rainfall headed their way as well. Please be safe and very alert out there!!

[tolakram]

Keep in mind at some point the mid level circulation will separate from the LLC. Many times what looks to be a direction from the top is not actually what is happening.

[Blinhart]

Keep in mind at some point the mid level circulation will separate from the LLC. Many times what looks to be a direction from the top is not actually what is happening.

But I don't see any evidence of this decoupling, it looks like the internal mechanisms are still stacked and staying together tightly.

[tolakram]

visible
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=29&lon=-97&width=1000&height=800&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=10&quality=92

[tolakram]

SLIDER 1min refresh view.

Really!

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=813.5&y=865.5&z=2&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[northjaxpro]

Keep in mind at some point the mid level circulation will separate from the LLC. Many times what looks to be a direction from the top is not actually what is happening.

But I don't see any evidence of this decoupling, it looks like the internal mechanisms are still stacked and staying together tightly.

For right now, I agree with this. Harvey was so well stacked vertically with his inner core in that I do not see any indications of decoupling any time soon in the short term for sure.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/901425979305938944




Hurricane Hunters @53rdWRS
The Hurricane Hunters flew their last missions into #HurricaneHarvey yesterday before it made landfall. Video by the 53rd WRS commander.
8:47 AM - Aug 26, 2017

[cajungal]

So Harvey is trying to do opposite of what NHC says he should be doing, says he should be moving NW right now, if he continues slowly crawling N, I could see him looping NE, E, SE and back out into the GoM at about the same spot he came in and start building strength again. No I don't have any evidence or scientific information to back this, just gut feeling that we haven't seen the last of Harvey doing what he wants, where he wants, when he wants. I can see him getting out 100 miles or so out into the GoM before deciding to start moving N or NNE and head to Louisiana and continue strengthening to a Major again.

I sure hope not. I was feeling a lot more optimistic in SE Louisiana after the latest model runs. So far we haven't had anything more than a few sprinkles.

[jabman98]

I'm a bit northwest of downtown Houston. Woke up to rain from this feeder band. From the sound of things I figured the rain gauge would be full, but it only had 2.6 inches in it. I emptied it around 11 p.m. so that's the overnight total.

Yesterday afternoon we were told the worst flooding was going to be starting Monday. I hope people are prepared for it to start today. The forecast changed with the evening update, but not everyone may have seen that.

[Michele B]

Ridge building in the west, and looks like an upper low moving in from east of Florida.

So can Harvey continue moving west then, instead of looping back to the east?

That ridge doesn't look like it's going to dip far enough south to pick it up.

[Samantha727]

I keep hearing different scenarios even as the official forecast for the "loop," has changed. If Harvey is moving north now does that mean its starting the loop sooner, therefore a chance remains it gets further into the Gulf?

[forecasterjack]

Radar loop of that powerful feeder band near Houston: https://weather.us/radar-us/texas/refle ... .html#play