ATL: IRMA - Models

[USTropics]

High-resolution ECMWF operational shows a very narrow call for SFL, we'll see what the ensembles show shortly:

[xironman]

The Euro's timing and positioning of the recurve seems bizarre. Abrupt NNE turn? But important to note, this is a dramatic shift yet again. Probably overdoing the break in the ridge triggered by the trough

On the GFS high res maps there is a vort over Mississippi that helps break down the ridge, the Euro may have a similar feature but just not visible in the TT maps.

[sma10]

Talk about splitting the uprights! How many storms have managed to go between Miami and Andros?

[northjaxpro]

Main player is some sort of big cut off low that forms over the Southeast. The upper low eats away at the ridge in the Atlantic and opens up the north gate for Irma. When/if that happens is huge. Still looking at a 6-7 day forecast there. A lot will change the next three days.

The big key is the large southwest shift all the models have made in the short to medium range. Bad news for Florida unless Cuba interferes first.

I completely agree with you. The SW shift on EURO continues its alarming trend with Irma.

[northjaxpro]

Talk about splitting the uprights! How many storms have managed to go between Miami and Andros?

That is such an unusual turn. It really could be a super razor thin close call for the Miami Dade area. Wow!

[Steve]

Talk about splitting the uprights! How many storms have managed to go between Miami and Andros?

That is such an unusual turn. It really could be a super razor thin close call for the Miami Dade area. Wow!

Euro has been behind. I wonder if the Ensembles moved west again? If so....

[Aric Dunn]

Talk about splitting the uprights! How many storms have managed to go between Miami and Andros?

That is such an unusual turn. It really could be a super razor thin close call for the Miami Dade area. Wow!

that is because spurious low forces it north.. expect this to change

[Blinhart]

however the 00z euro delays that weird random low over the MS valley it still develops it enough .. just farther west.. if the trend continues...there wont be any north motion for a few more days until the next short wave comes..

where does it go then?? Western Gulf??

western gulf is very low..

Aric are you thinking like me, Central Gulf, Beaumont to Mobile

[USTropics]

Talk about splitting the uprights! How many storms have managed to go between Miami and Andros?

That is such an unusual turn. It really could be a super razor thin close call for the Miami Dade area. Wow!

that is because spurious low forces it north.. expect this to change

Aric is one of the best at picking out trends and patterns early on, Levi also alluded to the same thing in his Sunday evening video. Looking at all of the models that make the TVCN consensus, I'd assume it will be slightly west of the ECMWF track as well.

[northjaxpro]

So, we have the 0z Runs of GFS and EURO having a sharp turn to the both somewhere between from 79 -82 degrees Longitude. Timing of when Irma gets caught and turns North is going to be HUGE!! during the next several days!

[Steve]

Sarasota around and up to Wilmington, NC IMHO. Might be multiple landfalls depending on angle of track.

[USTropics]

Spaghetti plots:

[Evenstar]

And over my head at 216 hr.

And mine here in the Tidewater.

[MississippiWx]

Talk about splitting the uprights! How many storms have managed to go between Miami and Andros?

That is such an unusual turn. It really could be a super razor thin close call for the Miami Dade area. Wow!

that is because spurious low forces it north.. expect this to change

I agree the formation of the upper low is odd, but it's on the GFS and the Euro.

[Aric Dunn]

So, we have the 0z Runs of GFS and EURO having a sharp turn to the both somewhere between from 79 -82 degrees Longitude. Timing of when Irma gets caught and turns North is going to be HUGE!! during the next several days!

the only issue is this north turn is based on a mid to upper low forming with little to no support.. Euro hangs onto it .. the rest of the models backed off on it from the 12 ans 18z runs.. the 00z runs showed a different setup..

just expect this feature to fade...

[Blinhart]

Spaghetti plots:

A lot more ensembles further West, and if you notice they almost all have a NW bend at the end of their runs, so if that low doesn't turn it as much as they show it will be moving more NW than N.

[Steve]

Somebody post EC Ensembles so I when I roll over with one eye open at some point, I can see them. Gracias.

[gsheldon]

Hello everyone, I am waiting for the 5 am advisory. I am a retired television/radio meteorologist/tropics specialist. The general consensus is that all the models are in agreement that Irma will hit South Florida on Monday, September 11. I have spoken to other seasoned meteorologists who agree that the ridge is NOT going to move in time so IRMA will affect Florida and head North. As we approach next full forecast I really do not see a change with this system. Yes, it is too soon for broadcast media to say YES FL will get hit. However being a Miami native and knowing the population base from Lake Okeechobee to Key West also knowing that the residents in Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties that live EAST of I-95 and EAST of US-1 they would need more than 36 hours an evac! This system along with Harvey is difficult. I have been at this more than half my life and in my 50's now. If I still lived in South Florida I would take no chances. I was an airborne traffic reporter back in the late 80's early 90's and I can tell you that this would be a traffic nightmare. I understand the media can't jump on this till a certain point but remember what is considered South Florida has millions of residents. I am on Facebook if you would like to look me up as I have more than 30 communities/public pages for meteorology/climate change. This storm is going to affect a lot of people. Thoughts and prayers out for Houston continue and now for South Florida and points North. I do not get much time to get on here as I am on Facebook 10 hours a day. -George Sheldon

[shah83]

Yeah, I do agree that the track and trough is *mostly* set. It's just the details, now.

[robbielyn]

Hello everyone, I am waiting for the 5 am advisory. I am a retired television/radio meteorologist/tropics specialist. The general consensus is that all the models are in agreement that Irma will hit South Florida on Monday, September 11. I have spoken to other seasoned meteorologists who agree that the ridge is NOT going to move in time so IRMA will affect Florida and head North. As we approach next full forecast I really do not see a change with this system. Yes, it is too soon for broadcast media to say YES FL will get hit. However being a Miami native and knowing the population base from Lake Okeechobee to Key West also knowing that the residents in Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties that live EAST of I-95 and EAST of US-1 they would need more than 36 hours an evac! This system along with Harvey is difficult. I have been at this more than half my life and in my 50's now. If I still lived in South Florida I would take no chances. I was an airborne traffic reporter back in the late 80's early 90's and I can tell you that this would be a traffic nightmare. I understand the media can't jump on this till a certain point but remember what is considered South Florida has millions of residents. I am on Facebook if you would like to look me up as I have more than 30 communities/public pages for meteorology/climate change. This storm is going to affect a lot of people. Thoughts and prayers out for Houston continue and now for South Florida and points North. I do not get much time to get on here as I am on Facebook 10 hours a day. -George Sheldon

up the spine of florida like gfs or more towards NE florida towards sc like euro?