ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

He was with JeffP so I assume all are ok.

 https://twitter.com/StormVisuals/status/901423231223156736




Earlier

 https://twitter.com/StormVisuals/status/901357853943922689

I want to see that "blue shed" now, in the daylight!

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/901429987529588736




Mark Sudduth ✔ @hurricanetrack
Our plan for today is to retrieve our equipment and then make her way back to Houston. Anytime we have connectivity we will stream live.
9:03 AM - Aug 26, 2017 · Alice, TX

[ConvergenceZone]

They keep talking about several days of flooding rains, but some of the intensity of the rain bands seem less now then when it came ashore. So won't this system just rain itself out and dry out in a couple of days?

[forecasterjack]

They keep talking about several days of flooding rains, but some of the intensity of the rain bands seem less now then when it came ashore. So won't this system just rain itself out and dry out in a couple of days?

Strong/consistent moisture feed from the GOM will keep the rain threat going.

[hurricaneCW]

They keep talking about several days of flooding rains, but some of the intensity of the rain bands seem less now then when it came ashore. So won't this system just rain itself out and dry out in a couple of days?

Maybe by Wednesday but by then you're talking widespread 15-25" amounts with some as high as 40"+. The effects will last all week as the major rivers won't start responding until early next week and peak sometime by the end of the coming week.

[Frank P]

Amazing coverage by the Storm2K Nation... I don't think we could have had a better storm to track nor a better web site to obtain all the most recent storm information and expert prognostications, pros and amateurs alike ... and it had about everything you could imagine regarding a developing system for trackers, but unfortunately it has and will be seriously damaging our TX coastal and inland areas... one for the records for sure... pray no fatalities... and the story is still developing regarding the biblical amounts of rain forecasted ... stay strong TX!

[northjaxpro]

I keep hearing different scenarios even as the official forecast for the "loop," has changed. If Harvey is moving north now does that mean its starting the loop sooner, therefore a chance remains it gets further into the Gulf?

Any time a situation like this one where we have a tropical cyclone stuck in between two High Pressure ridges, you have collapsed steering currents. Harvey is likely to spin around for days with no definite motion in any given direction. This is why this situation is just devastating! Flooding is going to be historic unfortunately.

It could be as late as Wednesday of next week before something comes down the pike to. finally pick up this devastating cyclone out and away from the region. Just an unimaginable disaster ongoing in Texas!!

[tolakram]

They keep talking about several days of flooding rains, but some of the intensity of the rain bands seem less now then when it came ashore. So won't this system just rain itself out and dry out in a couple of days?

Remember the horrible flooding in Louisiana last year due to a unnamed tropical disturbance that sat over the region for a week? This system is not going anywhere so it will continue to pull in moisture from the gulf. Are the models overdoing the precip ... sometimes yes, sometimes no, really hard to tell. Right now all we know is GFS and Euro agree with precip amounts.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Amazing coverage by the Storm2K Nation... I don't think we could have had a better storm to track nor a better web site to obtain all the most recent storm information and expert prognostications, pros and amateurs alike ... and it had about everything you could imagine regarding a developing system for trackers, but unfortunately it has and will be seriously damaging our TX coastal and inland areas... one for the records for sure... pray no fatalities... and the story is still developing regarding the biblical amounts of rain forecasted ... stay strong TX!

Just think...its only August 26th

[tolakram]

Feeder bands are going to be an issue as well. Long range from Houston, saved loop.

[weunice]

A quick note on the flooding. I lived in a home growing up that flooded regularly. I knew to pay attention to river levels and whatnot. When the flood came through Louisiana last year I would estimate 90%+ of people living in areas near or just above flood stage were unaware of the impending dangers despite 1) record river stages and 2) regular media coverage. Despite the coverage of the hurricane a flood is a slow, boring process that is going to catch a lot of people off guard. The majority who are going to flood at the current time are unaware it is coming. They prepared for a hurricane which means as long as a tree didn't fall on their house, they think the whole event it over.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/StormVisuals/status/901433185501933569

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/901434288545181700




Michael Lowry ✔ @MichaelRLowry
The storm tide (storm #surge+tide) at Port Lavaca, #Texas has been over 6 feet for 7 hours. 7 HOURS. #Harvey's coastal threat far from over.
9:20 AM - Aug 26, 2017

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So Harvey is trying to do opposite of what NHC says he should be doing, says he should be moving NW right now, if he continues slowly crawling N, I could see him looping NE, E, SE and back out into the GoM at about the same spot he came in and start building strength again. No I don't have any evidence or scientific information to back this, just gut feeling that we haven't seen the last of Harvey doing what he wants, where he wants, when he wants. I can see him getting out 100 miles or so out into the GoM before deciding to start moving N or NNE and head to Louisiana and continue strengthening to a Major again.

I was thinking the same idea as you the other day, just not as strong. But the way things are looking now just don't see this making it back into the gulf, maybe right near the coast for a little while but that's about it. Ridge over the atlantic is going to build and expand westward into the gulf once 92 L lifts out and that will in turn keep him stuck over Texas. See no troughs or fronts having any affect so it will just determine how strong that ridge is over the gulf and right now it looks really strong. In fact every model this morning shows the same thing.

But talking about current events, Houston and Galveston look to be in the worse case scenario for flooding. Huge feeder band parked over them with continuous rain moving south to north.

[Frank P]

Amazing coverage by the Storm2K Nation... I don't think we could have had a better storm to track nor a better web site to obtain all the most recent storm information and expert prognostications, pros and amateurs alike ... and it had about everything you could imagine regarding a developing system for trackers, but unfortunately it has and will be seriously damaging our TX coastal and inland areas... one for the records for sure... pray no fatalities... and the story is still developing regarding the biblical amounts of rain forecasted ... stay strong TX!

Just think...its only August 26th

I don't even want to think about tracking another one for at least a month... best I make sure my Crown stock is at maximum capacity...I need a source that sells 55 gallon drums of that stuff, but unfortunately I think more will develop, and perhaps the season might just be quite active throughout the month of October as well.. hopefully not

[jabman98]

Feeder bands are going to be an issue as well. Long range from Houston, saved loop.

The way that band is set up now, it's bad for Galveston, Dickinson and kind of the general Clear Lake area. Once it gets into the Houston area it's just a bit to the northeast of downtown and the 610 loop. The northeast side of Houston is less densely populated than the west and northwest, so possibly a bit more space for it to be absorbed or run off. Thankfully southwest of Houston is getting a bit of a break right now. They got it bad yesterday.

[forecasterjack]

Feeder bands are going to be an issue as well. Long range from Houston, saved loop.

The way that band is set up now, it's bad for Galveston, Dickinson and kind of the general Clear Lake area. Once it gets into the Houston area it's just a bit to the northeast of downtown and the 610 loop. The northeast side of Houston is less densely populated than the west and northwest, so possibly a bit more space for it to be absorbed or run off. Thankfully southwest of Houston is getting a bit of a break right now. They got it bad yesterday.

one thing I'm in awe of/terrified by (been that way for so much with this system) is how far this band extends into the GOM. It goes on for hundreds of miles, sucking in deep tropical moisture all the way

Houston radar: https://weather.us/radar-us/texas/refle ... .html#play
Brownsville radar: https://weather.us/radar-us/texas/refle ... .html#play

can see it on GOES16 visible too https://weather.us/satellite/texas/sate ... .html#play

[northjaxpro]

Ridge is currently building in across the Eastern GOM. Harvey will be stuck in place over South Texas between this ridge in the Gulf and the one from the SW U.S. for the next several days.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/901438718304804865

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/901438981535014913



Philip Klotzbach ✔ @philklotzbach
The United States has never had multiple Cat. 4+ hurricanes make landfall in same year since NOAA records began in 1851. #Harvey
9:39 AM - Aug 26, 2017