ATL: IRMA - Models

[Vdogg]

A majority of the 00z ensembles went over Cuba (some even went into the Caribbean through Cuba) but almost all of them lifted north towards Florida afterwards:

You're right. I was looking at the 0z Euro ensembles.

[xironman]

The trough is weaker and much more positively tilted, it does not even look like it is going to produce the 50/50 low. That would make the run an outlier.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Pulling off a Donna with a landfall imminent over Key West at TAU 168

[NDG]

I have to wonder how much storm will be left after riding the entire length of Cuba.

Where the GFS shows making landfall over the central parts of Cuba is not very mountainous compared to eastern side of the Island.

[Hurricaneman]

Both north and south of Cuba aren't off the table before the turn north, could have paths similar to if south of Cuba Charley 2004 or if north Donna 1960

[USTropics]

After moving through the Keys and strengthening, landfall will be in SW Florida this run:

[TheStormExpert]

How could Cuba barely weaken Irma though?

[MrJames]

From 942 to 895 in 24 hours approaching SW Florida.

[xironman]

The trough is weaker and much more positively tilted, it does not even look like it is going to produce the 50/50 low. That would make the run an outlier.

I was wrong, shows up at 172, but much more displaced to the east.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Key West at 895 mb... History repeating itself

[NDG]

Key West then to Naples on this run, its westward shift continues like I said before.

[Hurricaneman]

From 942 to 895 in 24 hours approaching SW Florida.

If the core isn't that disrupted a deepening is quite possible but that could be overkill

[GeneratorPower]

After moving through the Keys and strengthening, landfall will be in SW Florida this run:

Interesting. I wonder how close we are to the final solution. There is land on every side of Irma. Small deviations will mean a lot.

[SFLcane]

It crosses the state putting the ne quadrant in many metro areas

[GeneratorPower]

From 942 to 895 in 24 hours approaching SW Florida.

If the core isn't that disrupted a deepening is quite possible but that could be overkill

The crazy deepening is believable. I think we are safe assuming it won't be a sub-888 storm. But it could go bonkers due to water temps alone. Keys in early September? Sheesh.

[TheStormExpert]

Key West then to Naples on this run, its westward shift continues like I said before.

When and where do you see the westward shifts ending?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS 00z run in a nutshell: Donna with a twist of 1895

[MrJames]

06z GFS basically shifted from I-95 to I-75.

[USTropics]

06z GFS rides up the spine of Florida into Georgia:

[SFLcane]

In a nutshell threat continues to increase for sfl back to bed now.