Zoomed in saved radar loop.
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/Za6mO09.gif)
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NDG wrote:Is tracking slightly NW of due west, ridging to its north most still be strong enough.
Zoomed in saved radar loop.
Aric Dunn wrote:Radar is looking scary.. lets hope we dont get RI .. though it seems likely at this point..
Gustywind wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Radar is looking scary.. lets hope we dont get RI .. though it seems likely at this point..
Waouw... hope no, you seem very sure about that ?RI?. I'm tired as Maria is getting me nervous as the others islands. I think that tommrow will be a busy day for us. Continue to monitor seriously Aric, and thanks for all. Keep me informed. That's a very worrying situation!
Good night!
RL3AO wrote:NHC has a category 4 over Puerto Rico. Looking very serious.
RL3AO wrote:Dominica most likely to see landfall from a category 3 hurricane on Monday evening. Martinique and Guadeloupe can't rule out hurricane conditions yet.
RL3AO wrote:SHIPs output gives about a 1/3rd chance of 65 kts of intensification in 72 hours, which would be a category 5.
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 5.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 6.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 9.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 13.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 7.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
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