ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wicked_wx_watcher]

Just got power back. Down since 7:45 last night. Catching up on videos of the storm and the awful damage. Has anyone talked about or videoed the potential damage to the hundreds of wind turbines in that area? Last time we drove to CC from Houston, we passed by miles and miles of turbines. We questioned at that time what damage a hurricane would inflict on them. We know they hadn't been tested by a cat 4 hurricane til now.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Just got power back. Down since 7:45 last night. Catching up on videos of the storm and the awful damage. Has anyone talked about or videoed the potential damage to the hundreds of wind turbines in that area? Last time we drove to CC from Houston, we passed by miles and miles of turbines. We questioned at that time what damage a hurricane would inflict on them. We know they hadn't been tested by a cat 4 hurricane til now.

I also have to wonder how the winds would effect electricity generation. Might they blow out regulators, or fry circuits, or something? Surely the power lines weren't built to handle 140mph wind-induced power. (I say 140 because many of those things are 300-500 feet tall. Might have even been higher)

[Andrew92]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 262036
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...TROPICAL STORM HARVEY BARELY MOVING...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 97.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located by Doppler radar near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 97.6
West. Harvey has been nearly stationary and little motion is
anticipated during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the
next day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over the middle and upper Texas
coast through Thursday. Isolated storm totals may reach around 40
inches in this area. Elsewhere during the same period, Harvey is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches
farther south toward the lower Texas coast, farther west toward the
Texas Hill Country and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of
this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flooding. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Aransas to Sargent...4 to 7 ft
Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of
the tropical storm warning area, and are likely to persist along
portions of the coast through at least Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday near the
middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[southerngale]

Heavy rain has been training in the Beaumont area for hours. Already seeing street flooding and this is supposedly just the beginning.

[Andrew92]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 262037
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

Harvey has continued to weaken while located inland over Texas.
Doppler radar data indicate that winds are now 55 kt, and since
there are no surface observations near the center, this is the
intensity used in this advisory. A continued weakening is
anticipated, and the NHC forecast uses the trend provided by the
SHIPS decay model. However, if a large portion of Harvey's
circulation remains over the Gulf of Mexico, the cyclone could
weaken at a slower rate than shown here.

Harvey has barely moved during the past few hours and little motion
is anticipated. Since the steering currents are forecast to remain
light, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5 days over
southeast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. Guidance disagrees
in which direction the cyclone will move, but all the models agree
that any motion will be quite slow.


Key Messages:

1. While Harvey's winds are decreasing, life-threatening hazards
will continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern
Texas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast.

2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from additional rainfall of 15 to
25 inches, with isolated storm totals as high as 40 inches, through
Thursday. Please heed the advice of local officials and do not
drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local
National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of
rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be
found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the
Texas coast. Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to
recede due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of
onshore flow. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 29.1N 97.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
12H 27/0600Z 29.1N 97.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 27/1800Z 28.9N 97.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1800Z 28.3N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 28.7N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

[CryHavoc]

Harvey had skeptics the whole time as he steadily climbed the ladder. I recall the "ragged" adjective being used 24 hours ago simply because the IR cloud tops warmed due to the sun. This storm steadily intensified (with some spurts tossed in) for 48 hours. it was remarkable persistent, relentless development. I am a believer in visible sat pics during the day and central pressure readings 24 hours a day (smoothed out) when trying to gauge development.

He also had people saying he was going to go Cat 5. There will always be a range of forecasts in this forum, and usually users either trend toward downplaying a system or hyping the hell out of it.

that is a very valid point. so the net effect is, for those paying close attention, you can really figure out who to pay attention to and who to disregard in future storms. it's how one can extract value from these forums going forward, especially if a storm is threatening your area..

Close attention is a good idea. But I think generally speaking about 85% of the users here will always err on the "max intensity" side of things. Because let's face it, we're all here because we're fascinated by weather and a Cat 5 is certainly more interesting from a Meteorological/structural/dramatic standpoint than a Cat 2. So it's naturally going to draw people who want to see best (worst) case scenarios for the idea of seeing a perfect storm take form.

[artist]

Link: https://youtu.be/GiuJMxrnifI
Rockport
Live Storms Media

[tolakram]

Sounds like Holiday Beach may have the greatest damage, at least for areas reachable at the moment. Mark Sudduth reports minimal damage in Port O'Conner, which means the surge area was not very big. IMO anyway.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/901546040700043264



Mark Sudduth ✔ @hurricanetrack
We have retrieved all of our equipment and I'm happy to say that Port O'Connor has minimal damage from Harvey
4:45 PM - Aug 26, 2017 · Texas, USA

 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/901512714438266881



Reed Timmer @ReedTimmerAccu
Major devastation in Holiday Beach, TX just north of Rockport, TX worst yet we have seen from #Harvey @breakingweather
2:32 PM - Aug 26, 2017

A map for those of us not local to the area.

[Blinhart]

OK, all this back and forth of whether or not what type of damage is out there. There will really not be any Cat 4 damage, since this was barely a Cat 4 (which I thought had to be 131 but evidently they changed it to 130), I think it is safe to say there is plenty of evidence of Cat 3 damage, The area that got sustained winds of 130 would probably be only 1000 to 5000 meters long and wide, so technically it was a Cat 4, it really was just a Cat 3 for most of the time. The area of where there was sustained Cat 3 winds is not that wide, maybe 40 - 60 miles wide and deep, so you got to understand there is small areas where the winds were at their max.

[jasons2k]

On rapid satellite GOES-16 loops, looks like Harvey is staring to slowly drift ENE.

I've had almost 5" here today.

[jabman98]

Harvey has barely moved during the past few hours and little motion
is anticipated. Since the steering currents are forecast to remain
light, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5 days over
southeast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. Guidance disagrees
in which direction the cyclone will move, but all the models agree
that any motion will be quite slow.

Ugh. Going to be a long week figuring out how to deal with this storm.

[xironman]

On rapid satellite GOES-16 loops, looks like Harvey is staring to slowly drift ENE.

I've had almost 5" here today.

It is slight, I did the "put the cursor on the eye" trick for a three hour loop, barely moved.

[jabman98]

I've had almost 5" here today.

Yesterday morning the forecast indicated that northern areas in Houston wouldn't get that much rain. We had 2.6 overnight and what looks like another half inch since then. I'm northwest of downtown by a little bit. Not at all what I expected. Not that I'm complaining!

[storm_in_a_teacup]

A once-in-a-lifetime video still (I think, but I don't know which video it was taken from yet) was captured from the eye last night: Stadium effect from the ground, lightning in the eyewall, and an eye clear enough to see the stars.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/m ... f1f7e1.jpg

Something about it seems fake or at least composited to me. Perhaps that the stars and the lightning are equally well exposed. I would expect the clouds to be overexposed if the stars are well exposed. This is me speaking as an astrophysics grad student...stars are many orders of magnitude fainter than a nearby lightning flash. Perhaps it is a composite photo.

He took a picture of the camera's screen with some data about ISO, F-number etc.:

 https://twitter.com/SimonStormRider/status/901465667823599617

This looks a lot more reasonable. Clearly the photo had been "enhanced" in some way. I guess I am used to taking images of stars for scientific purposes, in which it is clear the images are NOT how they would appear to the eyes When people just post images like this, implying that is literally what it looked like to them, I guess I get slightly annoyed.

(Of course I also get annoyed when people dismiss Hubble images as "photoshopped." They do not realize that the images are not supposed to mimic what your eye would see, because eyes are garbage at observing 30th magnitude/ square arcsec galaxies.)

[Blinhart]

Harvey has barely moved during the past few hours and little motion
is anticipated. Since the steering currents are forecast to remain
light, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5 days over
southeast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. Guidance disagrees
in which direction the cyclone will move, but all the models agree
that any motion will be quite slow.

Ugh. Going to be a long week figuring out how to deal with this storm.

The part I don't like is the last sentence in this, there is so much uncertainty, it really is scary.

[Steve]

i don't mind ultra-hype like Jeff's live stream last night. I don't want phony overblown stuff or propaganda.

As to people going to parties and stuff by all means. I'd be doing the same thing. Difference is I'd know my risk factors and be glued to NWS in case a threat to me getting back home was on the horizon. The only thing that galls me is the people who underplay everything with the macho card. They'd be the first ones to be calling for help. Haha. Caveat is I will take the jokers like Ike Bear and people mooning an overblown TWC report from the water's edge. I don't mind those types of alternative shenanigans even though those people put themselves in danger sometimes. That's on them.

Harvey looks great on visibles with the well defined circulation. It looks to be pulling in some dryer air from the west.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/s ... s_loop.php

Over a foot of rain has fallen in some places and that's probably going to double as this winds down. If it moves closer to the water again and picks up extra juice, that's just lagniappe. Most of the bands at the moment are flowing in NNW and lifting a little as they spin around. That's better than the N/S orientation we saw earlier with some bands. Exception is closer in to the center. Y'all know all the cliches about not driving through flowing water, turn around don't drown, not going across flooded underpasses and such. But don't underestimate the water. Drowning, falling trees, cleanup accidents and fires are the big hazards going forward. So be mindful.

[Blinhart]

So I think we will have to start watching the evolution of 92L and the trough that is coming down to pick it up. This should give us some idea what will be happening in the following days with the upper level flows. I think the sooner and closer 92L forms the more likely Harvey moves further East, the longer and further away 92L forms the less East Harvey moves.

[chaser1]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/901489385723580416

That's what I call "raining till the cows come home"

[Meteorcane]

Link: https://youtu.be/GiuJMxrnifI
Rockport
Live Storms Media

Although most of those structures weren't very well built, that is solid Cat.3 damage in that video probably the worst wind damage I have seen since Charley.

[curtadams]

What really bugs me about weather coverage is that they always focus on the worst of the damage. You never get a proper survey of a broad area, with both strong and weak buildings, woodframe and concrete. They focus on what's usually the path of a tornado, or a trailer park, or whatever looks particularly newsworthy.

Exactly. It's disaster p*rn, not real news. If it were more of a survey, people would learn more about how to build (or not build) in hurricane zones.