ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iune]

 https://twitter.com/IgorNeil/status/905468542304358404

Does this mean they found an air pressure of ~890 mbar? It doesn't seem like there's anywhere else finding this low pressure?

[Extratropical94]

162330 1828N 06432W 6977 02594 9450 +118 //// 038126 138 172 031 05

this is a wtf level SFMR wind speed of 172 kt...not sure if NHC is going to upgrade IRMA to a 170 kt hurricane.

That value is flagged, indicated by the 05 at the end of the line.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/IgorNeil/status/905468542304358404

Does this mean they found an air pressure of ~890 mbar? It doesn't seem like there's anywhere else finding this low pressure?

I don't think that is correct - sorry about that.
I posted for the images.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Man.... The Virgin Islands are getting hammered right now...

Yikes. And Puerto Rico is about to get caught in the crossfires soon.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061639
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 25 20170906
162730 1821N 06419W 6963 02436 9187 +165 +137 178022 027 039 001 00
162800 1820N 06418W 6968 02429 9159 +209 +116 200043 053 052 001 03
162830 1819N 06416W 6980 02433 9184 +202 +115 209071 084 096 002 03
162900 1818N 06415W 6976 02482 9256 +163 +136 213109 125 106 003 03
162930 1817N 06414W 6969 02542 9350 +146 //// 211130 134 152 015 01
163000 1816N 06413W 6951 02630 9432 +143 +143 216136 144 150 021 00
163030 1816N 06413W 6975 02645 9489 +144 +144 215128 137 149 052 03
163100 1815N 06412W 6973 02711 9561 +135 +135 215126 129 138 043 03
163130 1814N 06411W 6983 02744 9615 +127 +127 219127 131 119 019 00
163200 1813N 06410W 6953 02825 9662 +117 //// 215119 124 115 012 01
163230 1812N 06409W 6965 02847 9683 +110 +105 215115 119 106 003 01
163300 1811N 06408W 6966 02875 9743 +108 +103 212108 113 103 001 00
163330 1810N 06407W 6964 02905 9765 +113 +113 208105 107 094 009 00
163400 1809N 06406W 6966 02920 9785 +109 +109 208102 103 091 007 00
163430 1808N 06405W 6968 02937 9812 +107 +107 210098 102 086 007 00
163500 1807N 06404W 6959 02964 9839 +108 +108 208092 096 085 009 00
163530 1806N 06403W 6967 02968 9855 +102 +102 207088 090 081 013 00
163600 1805N 06402W 6969 02979 9867 +100 +100 207083 086 078 015 00
163630 1804N 06401W 6963 02997 9881 +104 +104 207078 081 075 016 00
163700 1803N 06400W 6961 03009 9889 +105 +105 213077 078 074 016 03

[supercane4867]

Recon data still supports a 160kt intensity. Pressure maybe somewhat dropping again too.

[meriland29]

What does it mean if it is flagged?

[Extratropical94]

What does it mean if it is flagged?

That it's probably a wrong value caused by a measurement error.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061647
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 26 20170906
163730 1802N 06359W 6982 02998 9910 +112 +112 216080 081 064 033 03
163800 1801N 06357W 6957 03035 9919 +108 +108 213079 081 069 014 00
163830 1800N 06356W 6972 03025 9930 +096 +096 210080 081 067 010 00
163900 1759N 06355W 6964 03043 9932 +085 +083 208079 080 066 009 00
163930 1757N 06354W 6966 03049 9937 +088 +088 207078 079 064 007 00
164000 1756N 06353W 6966 03054 9949 +088 //// 207076 078 061 008 01
164030 1755N 06352W 6970 03055 //// +091 //// 206074 075 061 003 01
164100 1754N 06351W 6965 03066 //// +092 //// 207072 074 062 002 01
164130 1753N 06350W 6967 03070 //// +089 //// 206070 071 059 001 01
164200 1752N 06349W 6966 03077 9957 +096 +083 207070 071 059 001 00
164230 1751N 06348W 6969 03078 9964 +095 +080 209067 068 058 001 00
164300 1750N 06347W 6965 03088 9963 +101 +072 206064 066 058 002 00
164330 1749N 06345W 6966 03091 9969 +100 +078 207061 062 054 002 00
164400 1748N 06344W 6969 03091 9975 +099 +076 207060 061 053 004 00
164430 1747N 06343W 6972 03089 9972 +097 +084 213060 062 052 004 01
164500 1745N 06342W 6967 03099 9988 +095 +086 210061 063 053 002 01
164530 1744N 06341W 6968 03098 9990 +090 +086 212060 062 053 003 01
164600 1743N 06340W 6967 03101 9988 +095 +085 214059 060 053 000 01
164630 1742N 06339W 6967 03105 9992 +095 +082 213060 061 051 001 00
164700 1741N 06337W 6967 03109 9999 +092 +083 210058 062 051 001 00

[Extratropical94]

NW eyewall

941mb 305° (from the NW) 110 knots (127 mph)
940mb 305° (from the NW) 124 knots (143 mph)
939mb 305° (from the NW) 125 knots (144 mph)
936mb 305° (from the NW) 127 knots (146 mph)
935mb 305° (from the NW) 119 knots (137 mph)
930mb 305° (from the NW) 146 knots (168 mph)
927mb 310° (from the NW) 155 knots (178 mph)
920mb 315° (from the NW) 142 knots (163 mph)
918mb 310° (from the NW) 146 knots (168 mph)
915mb 320° (from the NW) 162 knots (186 mph)
914mb 325° (from the NW) 164 knots (189 mph)
906mb 330° (from the NNW) 140 knots (161 mph)
900mb 335° (from the NNW) 140 knots (161 mph)
893mb 335° (from the NNW) 148 knots (170 mph)
878mb 340° (from the NNW) 181 knots (208 mph)
867mb 340° (from the NNW) 191 knots (220 mph)
860mb 345° (from the NNW) 181 knots (208 mph)
850mb 345° (from the NNW) 172 knots (198 mph)
839mb 355° (from the N) 175 knots (201 mph)
833mb 0° (from the N) 152 knots (175 mph)
826mb 0° (from the N) 165 knots (190 mph)
819mb 5° (from the N) 150 knots (173 mph)
793mb 5° (from the N) 150 knots (173 mph)
782mb 15° (from the NNE) 130 knots (150 mph)
767mb 20° (from the NNE) 129 knots (148 mph)
759mb 20° (from the NNE) 149 knots (171 mph)
756mb 25° (from the NNE) 130 knots (150 mph)
749mb 30° (from the NNE) 137 knots (158 mph)
747mb 30° (from the NNE) 136 knots (157 mph)
726mb 20° (from the NNE) 90 knots (104 mph)
711mb 30° (from the NNE) 120 knots (138 mph)
709mb 35° (from the NE) 107 knots (123 mph)
700mb 25° (from the NNE) 108 knots (124 mph)

[Extratropical94]

Center dropsonde: 921mb/12kt

UZNT13 KNHC 061648
XXAA 56167 99184 70644 04384 99921 28014 14012 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85712 24011 15510 70401 16409 16504 88999 77999
31313 09608 81626
61616 AF305 1311A IRMA OB 10
62626 CENTER MBL WND 15511 AEV 33304 DLM WND 15508 920697 WL150 1
5011 080 REL 1838N06437W 162631 SPG 1839N06437W 163004 =
XXBB 56168 99184 70644 04384 00921 28014 11850 24011 22743 20031
33697 16007
21212 00921 14012 11889 16512 22850 15510 33697 18004
31313 09608 81626
61616 AF305 1311A IRMA OB 10
62626 CENTER MBL WND 15511 AEV 33304 DLM WND 15508 920697 WL150 1
5011 080 REL 1838N06437W 162631 SPG 1839N06437W 163004 =

[northjaxpro]

Godspeed to everyone in the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands to Puerto Rico and the other Islands being currently impacted by this extremely dangerous, monster Hurricane Irma. My prayers and thoughts to everyone down there!!

[NDG]

[tarheelprogrammer]

Might be ready to strengthen a little again? Satellite image looks a tad bit better than earlier. Also, the turn more wnw has begun. Last few frames you can tell it is moving wnw, and should pass north of PR. Good news for them.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 061656
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 27 20170906
164730 1740N 06336W 6967 03111 0002 +094 +079 209055 056 050 000 00
164800 1738N 06335W 6966 03116 0007 +091 +082 209054 055 051 001 00
164830 1737N 06334W 6966 03120 0007 +096 +079 210053 054 051 001 00
164900 1736N 06333W 6970 03116 0006 +096 +081 212052 054 050 001 01
164930 1735N 06332W 6967 03123 0014 +095 +079 214051 052 049 000 00
165000 1734N 06330W 6967 03127 0016 +095 +082 214049 050 049 001 00
165030 1733N 06329W 6970 03125 0021 +091 +080 212044 049 046 000 00
165100 1731N 06328W 6967 03128 0019 +095 +079 209043 044 046 002 00
165130 1730N 06327W 6967 03131 0033 +080 +078 207044 044 046 003 01
165200 1729N 06326W 6970 03128 0027 +090 +072 207042 044 045 001 00
165230 1728N 06324W 6965 03138 0025 +099 +062 204041 041 044 000 03
165300 1727N 06323W 6966 03139 0025 +099 +058 205042 043 043 001 00
165330 1725N 06322W 6966 03142 0024 +102 +069 207043 044 044 000 00
165400 1724N 06321W 6969 03138 0026 +101 +069 207044 045 043 000 00
165430 1723N 06320W 6966 03142 0026 +101 +075 206047 048 043 000 00
165500 1722N 06318W 6966 03145 0033 +097 +072 205049 049 042 000 03
165530 1721N 06317W 6966 03145 0033 +098 +074 207048 049 043 000 03
165600 1720N 06316W 6966 03148 0036 +096 +081 206048 049 042 000 00
165630 1718N 06315W 6965 03150 0040 +096 +073 205047 048 043 002 00
165700 1717N 06314W 6967 03149 0041 +097 +068 206047 048 042 000 00

[Extratropical94]

URNT12 KNHC 061657
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 06/16:26:10Z
B. 18 deg 23 min N
064 deg 24 min W
C. 700 mb 2390 m
D. 156 kt
E. 303 deg 10 nm
F. 037 deg 145 kt
G. 303 deg 10 nm
H. 921 mb
I. 9 C / 3046 m
J. 19 C / 3034 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C19
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF305 1311A IRMA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 164 KT 091 / 30 NM 14:46:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 144 KT 124 / 12 NM 16:30:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 140 / 12 KT
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 120 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 16:57Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 13
Observation Number: 08 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 16:26:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°23'N 64°24'W (18.3833N 64.4W)
B. Center Fix Location: 15 statute miles (24 km) to the ESE (102°) from Road Town, British Virgin Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,390m (7,841ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 156kts (~ 179.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WNW (303°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 37° at 145kts (From the NE at ~ 166.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WNW (303°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 921mb (27.20 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,034m (9,954ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 164kts (~ 188.7mph) which was observed 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the E (91°) from the flight level center at 14:46:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 144kts (~ 165.7mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ESE/SE (124°) from the flight level center at 16:30:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 140° at 12kts (From the SE at 14mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the ESE (120°) from the flight level

[jlauderdal]

IMO SFL TV stations should stop showing models. We have a forecast track and it's time to focus on that.

absolutely, it really started this morning with julie durda showing spaghetti to our east without any explanation then she shows the nhc track which was west...max mayfield works with julie durda, he needs to tell channel 10 to stop asap and just show the nhc track.

[NDG]

Pressure down to 921mb, they go with 156 knots surface winds.

URNT12 KNHC 061657
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 06/16:26:10Z
B. 18 deg 23 min N
064 deg 24 min W
C. 700 mb 2390 m
D. 156 kt
E. 303 deg 10 nm
F. 037 deg 145 kt
G. 303 deg 10 nm
H. 921 mb
I. 9 C / 3046 m
J. 19 C / 3034 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C19
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF305 1311A IRMA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 164 KT 091 / 30 NM 14:46:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 144 KT 124 / 12 NM 16:30:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 140 / 12 KT
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 120 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR

[SNOW_JOKE]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXcyJ6OpjGg