ATL: IRMA - Models

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looking bad for Miami and the eastern seaboard of the state

[bella_may]

Big east shift by the GFS. What happens after the turn north is going to be critical for SE, as well as when it turns for FL.

Not that big of a shift actually

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z GFS is basically the worst-case scenario for S FL. Avoids land for the most part, and then moves directly into S FL around the edge of the ridge to the NE. Thankfully this is still six days out so a lot can change. I guess the good news is that the run did move a touch east from the prior run, so hopefully this is the start of a trend toward out-to-sea, but that may be only a dream at this point...

[JPmia]

I'll ask again since it was a few pages ago.. anyone know if the balloon data from across the CONUS was included in this GFS run?

[weathaguyry]

Eye straddling E FL coast at 162, still going N

[jlauderdal]

The trend in the GFS over the past six runs is for the trough over the east CONUS to get shallower and lift out faster. This helps the ridge to the NE of Irma to extend farther SW.

that very deep trough looked odd a few days ago, no surprise reality is setting in on the modeling

IIRC Aric Dunn was eluding to this very early on. He never really said so, but just reading his posts, you could understand what he was thinking.

i alluded to it friday or saturday and of course aric saw it too...aric also posted about a low showing up in the models coming out of montana that looked suspicious and it will disappear, bet he is right on that too...you are tired of me saying but here goes again, nhc has been talking south and west since the start and irma has behaved accordingly...sofla is going to feel it but this thing sure looks to be going through the straits on the way to the gulf, if i was really interested in feeling the brunt i would be heading down highway 1 to mile marker 0, there will be plenty to see in fort lauderdale though...after it clears the straits who knows what happens but irma wants to go west until further notice

[CrazyTropics]

Would be a cat 5 pushing surge into all of SE florida.

Still feel this is not a FL storm with the new north change and cuts right up to NC

[otowntiger]

Would be a cat 5 pushing surge into all of SE florida.

Woah. No bueno. Let's hope for shifts in direction and/or intensity or both! Thankfully there is still time for that to happen!

[RL3AO]

12Z GFS is basically the worst-case scenario for S FL. Avoids land for the most part, and then moves directly into S FL around the edge of the ridge to the NE. Thankfully this is still six days out so a lot can change. I guess the good news is that the run did move a touch east from the prior run, so hopefully this is the start of a trend toward out-to-sea, but that may be only a dream at this point...

Yep. Hopefully the EPS continues to show a track mostly off the coast.

[Steve]

Absolute destruction. The tip isn't so populated, and there's the Everglades just to the NW. Looks like it will be a Cat 5 coming up just west of Miami/Ft. Lauderdale, Palm Beach, etc. OOOH. It's coming up sort of on the east side of the peninsula, so all major S FL Atlantic Coastal Cities would probably be dealing with Cat 3 conditions since this is coming in at Cat 5. I think if Irma comes off the East Coast, it could still get pulled up into another landfall somewhere. The next few plots are going to be very interesting.

[stormreader]

Wow. Huge landfall in south Florida. Still no sign of recurve

Still thinking that what this is mainly about is a more gradual recurve. Meaning Irma will push a little farther west. On this run, that puts Miami in the NE quadrant, Irma still with a west component, no radical turn, and no completed turn at that time. Hard to see Irma not making the SE GOM and near the Fl West Coast.

[1900hurricane]

The very subtle shortwave trough near Missouri could make a big impact in when Irma turns.

[image removed]

That's currently over NE/SD right?

Looks like that feature is currently off the Pacific coast. It moves north into British Colombia and then dives southeast behind the main trough. It's a subtle feature, so it's hard to track unless you know what you're looking for.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like a near worst case scenario for Miami in terms of wind and quite bad for surge.

I agree. This run would be an absolute worst case devastating scenario, and thank god Jose behind Irma is moving up and out to sea. We definitely don't want double trouble

[weathaguyry]

Eye moves a touch offshore at 168, around Cape Canaveral I think

[RL3AO]

Gonna go right up the entire SE US coast.

[Steve]

I'll ask again since it was a few pages ago.. anyone know if the balloon data from across the CONUS was included in this GFS run?

Go back a few pages. Someone posted the requests for the balloons. I think some are 18z and some 00z, but those are samples of the trough on the conus. That's all the info I have, but the NHC discussion at 11 possibly mentions?

Looks like we're not done. GFS back in the SW Atlantic at 168. Recall it eventually kicks Irma west pretty hard. I wonder if it landfalls again in GA or SC?

[weathaguyry]

Offshore E of Jacksonville at 174, 921mb

[TheStormExpert]

So far the 12z GFS is VERY similar to overnights 00z GFS run in terms of potential track up the spine of Florida. HOPEFULLY it's a trend back to the east starting but I'll need to see the 18z run to determine that.

[jlauderdal]

12Z GFS is basically the worst-case scenario for S FL. Avoids land for the most part, and then moves directly into S FL around the edge of the ridge to the NE. Thankfully this is still six days out so a lot can change. I guess the good news is that the run did move a touch east from the prior run, so hopefully this is the start of a trend toward out-to-sea, but that may be only a dream at this point...

good news there is error in that gfs track, bad news for us if the error is to the left and it comes right...my go west theory gets blown to bits if that happens

[stormreader]

Gonna go right up the entire SE US coast.

Well guess I missed it. Still has a strong turn at the end, with a run up the E Coast. Thinking it would be more gradual with perhaps a run up the west coast or a turn near the Ft Myers area.