ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[blp]

Looks like UKmet dropped it as well. Support going down quickly.

[Nimbus]

Overnight the convection mass riding along the 10N line persisted.
There is SAL just north of that and still lots of dry air out to -45w.
Not sure why the Euro dropped the storm entirely?
The wave axis or center is just past -36w

[cycloneye]

Down in the percents.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure extending more than a thousand miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands have not shown signs of organization during the past
day or two. However, environmental conditions still appear
conducive for this system to consolidate and become better
organized, and a tropical depression could form next week while
moving west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at
about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[OuterBanker]

Looks like south Florida can come off their Xanax.
Waiting to hear from Bones.

[NDG]

Euro might come out as the big winner with this system, if current trends continue.

[MetroMike]

Looks like south Florida can come off their Xanax.
Waiting to hear from Bones.

Actually need to go back on the Xanax with models trolling us this season. I am afraid we may all be left scratching our heads after this season ends. I don't see any reason why things can't get going so far. Got the warm SST out there the SAL is lifting to the north. supposedly the favorable MJO is about to be over the Atlantic basin. I guess things like that don't really matter due to unseen conditions that are present.

[weathaguyry]

Is there any chance this could become a TD in the MDR, or is that not possible at this point?

[abajan]

Is there any chance this could become a TD in the MDR, or is that not possible at this point?

The GFS still thinks it's possible. Even has it as a storm, but weakens it as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

[BobHarlem]

Past runs of the GFS were moving the system a lot slower than it is actually moving, this morning it's moved the TS development goal post to Sunday/Monday and then a Leeward hit as a TS then poof, the Euro is not even developing it.

[MetroMike]

The GFS loses this. Very unpredictable .

[northjaxpro]

Looks like south Florida can come off their Xanax.
Waiting to hear from Bones.

Oh my, a last rites call for Bones to make an appearance on 99L already? lol... Well now has things changed this fast or what ...

[jlauderdal]

i think too early say going scare for fl i seen alot do it by few days show going out to sea so let wait don't but white flag out Friday i want beach here in miami wind was blowing because of strong high to east facebook going nut with models showing fl hit

the gfs has multiple south florida hits every season, when was the last time we were hit? we have a direct hit inside of 5 days i get concerned, inside of 3 days the gas cans get filled up..outside of 5 days somebody else is getting it

[jlauderdal]

Looks like south Florida can come off their Xanax.
Waiting to hear from Bones.

no xanax needed, just a dose of reality when it comes to the gfs is all that's needed..55th record low high set this morning for 2017, thats more interesting than the goofy gfs output these days

[otowntiger]

i think too early say going scare for fl i seen alot do it by few days show going out to sea so let wait don't but white flag out Friday i want beach here in miami wind was blowing because of strong high to east facebook going nut with models showing fl hit

the gfs has multiple south florida hits every season, when was the last time we were hit? we have a direct hit inside of 5 days i get concerned, inside of 3 days the gas cans get filled up..outside of 5 days somebody else is getting it

. LOL! So true! It's like if a model shows your are getting hit beyond 5 days it's almost a guarantee that you are safe. Seems like 99l won't quite give up just yet. The NHC still show 5 day chances as high, 70%. Surprises me hearing all the pro met comments on here regarding future conditions.

[wxman57]

Still looks like crapola (pardon my French). I don't see any more favorable environment ahead of it. Don't know what the NHC folks are looking at to keep development chances so high.

Models agree with you for next 3-4 days, then it seems pretty favorable if 99L can miss the big islands... Amateurs & Pro's heavily rely on models especially long range, so can't totally discount it, IMO.

I'm not discounting all the models, just the GFS, which has done poorly with the upper-air pattern across the tropics. The GFS has been predicting a favorable environment where there is none. During the burst of activity in the East Pac, the GFS kept forecasting widespread sinking air (unfavorable). I have no confidence in this "upgraded" GFS.

The NHC really has no reason to significantly drop percentages of development. They work for the general public, who can't "fire" them if they spend millions taking precautions for a storm that doesn't develop. I've had to go before major clients and explain why we thought a disturbance could develop in the Gulf (when it didn't develop). It's easy when there's no risk for being wrong. There's no harm in keeping the percentages high so that people in the eastern Caribbean will continue to monitor this wave. Private companies just don't have that luxury.

[Emmett_Brown]

I don't think it is the models, or the GFS in particular... I think it's us. Not too long ago, global models were generally not used for genesis that much, but more for analyzing the overall pattern. People didn't start model watching until a depression had formed... usually because the models often couldn't spot TCs until after they formed. I think the models have actually improved a little with genesis, and they now show TCs forming, but also show a lot more false alarms. Somewhere along the line, we developed the expectation that the models (and their "new improved" versions) were really really good at predicting genesis. There is some truth to the old adage that until something forms, there is nothing to track. We even saw this last year with Hermine... models dropped it (both GFS and Euro took turns dropping it), and then it formed.

[cycloneye]

A word for 99L (Mess)

Without loop:



Loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[AubreyStorm]

Looks nice today! Pop up???

[stormreader]

I don't think it is the models, or the GFS in particular... I think it's us. Not too long ago, global models were generally not used for genesis that much, but more for analyzing the overall pattern. People didn't start model watching until a depression had formed... usually because the models often couldn't spot TCs until after they formed. I think the models have actually improved a little with genesis, and they now show TCs forming, but also show a lot more false alarms. Somewhere along the line, we developed the expectation that the models (and their "new improved" versions) were really really good at predicting genesis. There is some truth to the old adage that until something forms, there is nothing to track. We even saw this last year with Hermine... models dropped it (both GFS and Euro took turns dropping it), and then it formed.

Good post. Its still a crap shoot.

[ronjon]

Agreed Emmett. We have a long way to go with models on genesis and intensity. When we have inconsistencies with models it points to competing forecasts of environmental conditions, often those forecast more than a week out. I have to chuckle with some statements on this board regarding model error (or supposed error since it hasn't occurred yet). We all have to remember, these models are simulating conditions over vast spans of open water with very limited atmospheric data unlike the continental US where lots of balloon measurements feed the models. We're just not there with the data and the codes to predict genesis with much reliability. Maybe someday.