ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Parts of the northeast are in the cone. If you live on Long Island or Coastal New England, you should be prepared for a potential hurricane. That way you won't be surprised if the forecast shifts west.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/908804137701298181

[xironman]

Parts of the northeast are in the cone. If you live on Long Island or Coastal New England, you should be prepared for a potential hurricane. That way you won't be surprised if the forecast shifts west.

It is possible that there could be watches for LI, RI, the Cape, and the Islands by late Sunday.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Just in case, I've started following Jose on my weather blog. I'll post updates once a day until Monday, from there I may start covering the system around the clock threat level dependant. -

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.ca/

[1900hurricane]

Ok, this might of been asked already, but what is the record for the longest living Tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic Basin or even all Basins?

From looking at the models there is still not a lot of agreement of the steering current of this system, could this system still be around in 2 weeks?

For the Atlantic modern era is Ginger https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ginger
For those who live in the past the 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1899_San_ ... _hurricane

Global champion is Hurricane/Typhoon John from 1994. It took it 28.75 days (over four weeks!) to move from south of Mexico where it developed all the way to the WPac, meander around a little, and then recurve back into the CPac.

[weathaguyry]

Parts of the northeast are in the cone. If you live on Long Island or Coastal New England, you should be prepared for a potential hurricane. That way you won't be surprised if the forecast shifts west.

These are bold words coming from a pro met. Thank you for the updates!

[Aric Dunn]

Is it just me or does it seemed to have not been moving very much the last 2 hours ? sure looks like its moving very slowly especially the last hour. ..

[northjaxpro]

Deeper convection now flaring again around the center atm.

[northjaxpro]

Is it just me or does it seemed to have not been moving very much the last 2 hours ? sure looks like its moving very slowly especially the last hour. ..

Yeah, Jose is meandering or drifting very slowly atm
He is not in any hurry right now that is for sure.

[weathaguyry]

Is it just me or does it seemed to have not been moving very much the last 2 hours ? sure looks like its moving very slowly especially the last hour. ..

Yeah, Jose is meandering or drifting very slowly atm
He is not in any hurry right now that is for sure.

Hmm., wouldn't a slower movement now give the ridge more time to build in? Or is it the other way around?

[Aric Dunn]

Is it just me or does it seemed to have not been moving very much the last 2 hours ? sure looks like its moving very slowly especially the last hour. ..

Yeah, Jose is meandering or drifting very slowly atm
He is not in any hurry right now that is for sure.

Hmm., wouldn't a slower movement now give the ridge more time to build in? Or is it the other way around?

depends on the situation.. in this case, yes.. slower equals possible more west. but a couple hours is not going to make to much differnet. if it keeps moving slow for many hours then things would change..

[aperson]

I think the primary effect of being slower at this point is to allow more strengthening inside the low shear + good SST zone Jose is currently in.

[gatorcane]

The future track of 96L could depend greatly on Jose's ultimate track. The slower Jose is to move out of the Western Atlantic, the less ridging is likely to build back in to drive 96L west.

[Aric Dunn]

so according the a couple members of the GFS... the entire east coast from north to south need to watch jose .. even cuba lol

[invest man]

Yeah, Jose is meandering or drifting very slowly atm
He is not in any hurry right now that is for sure.

Hmm., wouldn't a slower movement now give the ridge more time to build in? Or is it the other way around?

depends on the situation.. in this case, yes.. slower equals possible more west. but a couple hours is not going to make to much differnet. if it keeps moving slow for many hours then things would change..

Has the stirring currents weaken because this seems to be going nowhere? Looking at water vapor loops looks to be trapped from north and west. But I'm just an observer with no credentials lol. However 96l seems to be moving out and picking up strength by the hour!

[Ken711]

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Since the reconnaissance flight earlier this afternoon, convection
within the inner-core of Jose has increased in coverage and
organization. A banding eye appears to be forming, and a warm spot
is apparent in IR imagery near the center of the cyclone. Dvorak
classifications at 0000 UTC still supported an intensity of 65 kt,
but given the increase in organization since then, the initial
intensity has been increased to 70 kt. Additional strengthening is
still expected for at least the next 24 to 36 h. After that time,
an increase in southwesterly shear and gradually cooling SSTs are
still expected to cap the intensification and eventually cause Jose
to gradually weaken. The official intensity forecast remains a
little above the model consensus for the first 48 h, and is close
after that.

Jose continues to move toward the northwest, and the initial motion
estimate is 305/8 kt. The main source of uncertainty in the track
forecast is at days 4 and 5, since the global models disagree on the
speed at which Jose will move northward along the western edge of
the subtropical ridge. The GFS continues to show a faster movement,
which allows Jose to pass very close to the U.S. east coast before
an approaching trough forces the cyclone to turn more toward the
northeast. On the other hand, the ECMWF shows a slower track, so
the trough steers the hurricane farther east. The NHC forecast has
not been changed substantially and is still just a touch slower than
the model consensus, out of respect to the ECMWF. When the 00Z
ECMWF and UKMET models become available tonight, it could shed more
light on the future speed of the hurricane. It is still important
to note that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about
175 and 225 miles, respectively, and this error could be in the
speed of the hurricane (along track error).

While the official track forecast keeps the center of Jose offshore
for the next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane
becoming rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east
of North Carolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be
needed for a portion of the North Carolina coast tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the
mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and
rip current conditions.

2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the
North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are
expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the
North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S.
east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is
increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude
and location. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North
Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through
the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 27.4N 71.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 28.1N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 29.2N 72.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 30.6N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 32.0N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 34.6N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 37.5N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 41.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

NNNN

[northjaxpro]

Jose is barely drifting northwest. He has been very slow to move the past 18 hours. Jose continues to get better organized with deeper convection developing around the eye wall. Satellite imagery appeared also to show the eye tried briefly to clear out a few hours ago. Northeast shear is beginning to impact the cyclone as you can see the outflow on the outer western periphery not as symmetric as earlier.

It will be interesting to see when Jose will finally get on the move northward. Interesting in the 11:00 p.m. discussion from NHC that NHC may post TS watch for portion of NC coast as Jose becomes a larger storm which may bring gale/storm force gusts to that area as he lifts north later in the short term.

[drezee]

Jose is giving it to buoy 41047..pressure got down to 986mb

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN

[xironman]

Jose has some dry air to fight

[WeatherGuesser]

Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 44...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Corrected headline

...JOSE MOVING STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 71.8W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system. A Tropical Storm Watch may be needed for a portion of the
coast of North Carolina on Saturday.