ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

NOAA buoy 41047 has been very helpful in determining the position
and central pressure of Jose this morning. The center of Jose
passed just north of the buoy around 0500 UTC, and a surface
pressure of 986 mb with 20-30 kt of winds was measured. Since the
buoy did not sample the stronger northeast quadrant of the storm,
the initial intensity has been held at 70 kt. Another
reconnaissance flight later today will provide a better estimate of
the max winds.

There is some indication of northeasterly shear inhibiting the
outflow of Jose, which is restricted in the northwest quadrant.
Since it appears to be negatively affecting the cyclone, the shear
may inhibit any more substantial intensification. The intensity
guidance is a little lower than before, so the new NHC forecast has
been lowered slightly, and is now close to the intensity consensus
throughout the forecast.

Jose has moved just a little to the southwest of the expected track,
and the initial motion remains 305/8 kt. However, Jose is still
expected to begin turning toward the north later today, so no
significant changes were needed for the early part of the forecast.
More importantly, the GFS and ECMWF have met in the middle of their
previous solutions, and have come into much better agreement on the
forward speed of the hurricane beyond day 2. The new track forecast
is very close to a 50/50 blend of the GFS and ECMWF. Although
confidence in the track forecast is a little higher due to the model
agreement, it is still important to note that the average NHC track
errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively.

While the official track forecast keeps the center of Jose offshore
for the next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane
becoming rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east
of North Carolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be
needed for a portion of the North Carolina coast later today.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the
mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and
rip current conditions.

2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the
North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are
expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the
North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S.
east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is
increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude
and location. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North
Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through
the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 27.9N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 28.6N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 29.7N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 31.2N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 32.9N 72.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 35.8N 71.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 39.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 41.0N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[xironman]

It will be interesting to see if it can get west of 72.5

[GCANE]

Overshooting tops continuing on upswing

[forecasterjack]

Some deep convection over Jose's center this morning on 1 min imagery, but still struggling with shear and dry air. Loop of 1 min imagery: https://weather.us/satellite/717-w-279-n/satellite-superhd-1min.html#play

[weathaguyry]

Briefing on Jose from the NWS Upton NY, updates at noon today

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/Jose%20Presentation%201.pdf

[weathaguyry]

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Earlier microwave data seemed to suggest that Jose's low-level
center is displaced to the northwest of the mid-level microwave
eye, which is not surprising given that the various shear analyses
indicate about 25 kt from the west-northwest. The initial intensity
is being held at 70 kt, pending the arrival of an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft this afternoon.

The shear over Jose is not expected to abate, and in fact, it could
increase further in the next 36 to 48 hours. However, the hurricane
will remain over warm waters south of the Gulf Stream for the next
three days, and the intensity models suggest that it should be able
to at least maintain its intensity, if not strengthen slightly.
After day 3, the hurricane will move north of the Gulf Stream over
much colder water, and that will likely lead to the system weakening
to a tropical storm. Although there will be a cold front
approaching from the northwest by day 5, Jose still looks separated
from the frontal zone at that point, and there is no appreciable
injection of baroclinic energy at that time to allow for
strengthening.

Best I can tell, Jose is moving northwestward with an initial motion
of 320/8 kt. Jose will be moving around the western periphery of a
mid-level high anchored to the east of Bermuda, which will cause it
to turn northward and maintain that heading through day 3. The
track models are tightly clustered during this period, and there is
relatively high confidence in the NHC forecast. After day 3, the
models have come into much better agreement that Jose will become
embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and the NHC track forecast
is faster than the previous one by day 5 in order to keep up with
the GFS and ECMWF. Regardless, Jose's track and an expected
increase in size will likely lead to impacts along the mid-Atlantic
and southern New England coasts in a few days.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North
Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are
currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer
Banks. However, an increase in the size of the storm or a westward
adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm
conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should
monitor the progress of Jose through Monday.

2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S.
coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone
could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to
the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast
from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose
through the next several days.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S.
east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next several days in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 28.8N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 29.5N 72.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 30.8N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 32.4N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 37.2N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 40.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 41.5N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Aric Dunn]

Its still moving pretty slow..

[weathaguyry]

Its still moving pretty slow..

Hmm, I heard before that a slower movement now would lead to a more westerly track later on, but it seems that the models that take this slower, end up father east

[xironman]

Its still moving pretty slow..

Stalled

[GCANE]

[forecasterjack]

Jose is looking much better this afternoon than it did this morning. Some outflow to the west, deep convection over the center. Still having dry air issues, but at least we have something to work with now. 1min imagery loop: https://weather.us/satellite/713-w-281- ... .html#play click map to zoom in more

[xironman]

Looking at GOES 16 is has barely moved in the past 4 hours.

Well according to recon it has moved slightly NE... And strengthened.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure is down to 973 it appears but the storm has not strengthened wind-wise. Probably structural changes and size increases ongoing.

[NJWxHurricane]

Looking at GOES 16 is has barely moved in the past 4 hours.

Well according to recon it has moved slightly NE... And strengthened.

ne already?

[xironman]

Looking at GOES 16 is has barely moved in the past 4 hours.

Well according to recon it has moved slightly NE... And strengthened.

ne already?

Meandering not a long term move.

[tpinnola]

First time poster. Not an expert.

I've followed every storm on here this year and as a South Shore Long Islander this one has my attention. A little more of a shimmy west and we may have a significant problem.

[weathaguyry]

First time poster. Not an expert.

I've followed every storm on here this year and as a South Shore Long Islander this one has my attention. A little more of a shimmy west and we may have a significant problem.

Where on the South Shore are you? I'm in Island Park

[sicktght311]

First time poster. Not an expert.

I've followed every storm on here this year and as a South Shore Long Islander this one has my attention. A little more of a shimmy west and we may have a significant problem.

Same here. Watching this closely. West islip resident here

[GCANE]

['CaneFreak]

Wow. That was a big shift east at 5 PM.