ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

All this fantastic temporal/spatial resolution remotely-sensed data we are currently receiving is going to be of great use in someone's master's thesis or phd dissertation on topics such as the one you mentioned above

Hopefully mine, but gotta finish undergrad first.

Seriously though, all the data we've been able to gather and continue to gather from Harvey and Irma is absolutely incredible. They're devastating now, but the results of these storms years down the road could include a much better understanding of tropical cyclones and corresponding improvements in all forms of their forecasting.

Amazing that you're only in undergrad. I took Met in undergrad and am highly impressed as to how nuanced your knowledge is. I take it you are focused on tropical weather? My curriculum was more geared toward synoptic systems.

Yep, I am very tropical and otherwise convectively focused.

[GCANE]

Mandatory Evacuation Order for Miami Beach

http://www.tripatini.com/group/bulletin ... iami-beach

[johngaltfla]

Mandatory Evacuation Order for Miami Beach

http://www.tripatini.com/group/bulletin ... iami-beach

Based on traffic on I-95 and I-75 today(yup I was on both coasts), everyone started to leave long before the official order.

[1900hurricane]

[tweet removed]

Might be eyewall melding again. Maybe this is just how eyewall replacement is in top tier tropical cyclones experiencing good conditions and we haven't had good enough data on it until now.

"melding?" You mean like the two eyewalls are fusing together?

More or less. Traditional eyewall replacements involve the outer eyewall choking off inflow to the inner and then taking over as the dominant eyewall. The replacement cycle from yesterday and now this one look more like the eyewalls merge more seamlessly.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

[tweet removed]

Might be eyewall melding again. Maybe this is just how eyewall replacement is in top tier tropical cyclones experiencing good conditions and we haven't had good enough data on it until now.

"melding?" You mean like the two eyewalls are fusing together?

More or less. Traditional eyewall replacements involve the outer eyewall choking off inflow to the inner and then taking over as the dominant eyewall. The replacement cycle from yesterday and now this one look more like the eyewalls merge more seamlessly.

Wow. Impressive.

[abajan]

I don't recall the models for Matthew ever being this tight in agreement as they have become with Irma (at least at this point in the track). Even without a Florida direct hit, the impacts will still be pretty great no matter what. And for local leaders, with Harvey's impacts dominating all media the last few weeks... I'm sure they are dealing with an enormous amount of stress from their constituents.

Matthew models were pretty tight (although amazingly the UKMet seemed to catch on first) you can see the SWFMD plot history for Matthew http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... &year=2016

Here's a good example

I wouldn't post that image if I were you. Just because there's most likely a lot of new people viewing the site and some that might not be aware or might even assume that picture is related to Irma without reading what you posted. We don't want more people being confused

You're right. Unfortunately, nowadays people's attention spans are shorter than a knat's, and hardly anyone takes the time to understand what they're looking at, before spreading fake news all over the place, causing mass hysteria. lol

[stormreader]

How much ACE has this Hurricane made? Should probably be within the top 5 for Atlantic hurricanes based on this value seeing that Ivan, Frances, Georges and Igor didn't become as strong as far east or hold such power.

00Z best track update pushes us up to 39.6825 units and with plenty of life still left. Perfect verification of the NHC's current intensity forecast would push Irma to the top in the NAtl and second globally all-time, behind only Ioke '06.

1900, I've looked at some of your posts on the extreme tropical cyclone thread. Way over my head. But you have something here, that I'm sure will be studied for years to come. It may well be the most significant tropical cyclone in the basin this century (already, in terms of strength and stamina).

Last 100 years or so.

[Aric Dunn]

its wobbling back more westerly.. and no more ERC>>

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070113
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 22 20170907
010400 1847N 06642W 6965 03020 9890 +099 +079 314065 068 053 006 00
010430 1848N 06641W 6967 03006 9876 +101 +079 310069 070 055 006 00
010500 1849N 06639W 6963 02996 9885 +090 +089 314071 075 059 017 03
010530 1850N 06638W 6972 02970 9876 +088 +088 318073 075 067 012 00
010600 1851N 06637W 6964 02965 9850 +086 +086 314074 075 069 008 00
010630 1853N 06636W 6956 02961 9814 +097 +088 310073 076 073 009 00
010700 1854N 06634W 6972 02928 9787 +107 +089 306075 081 076 029 03
010730 1855N 06633W 6977 02892 9783 +099 +099 309084 090 081 024 00
010800 1856N 06632W 6969 02880 9758 +096 +096 309085 086 086 015 00
010830 1857N 06631W 6983 02828 9700 +105 +099 303087 090 091 011 00
010900 1859N 06629W 6969 02818 9666 +104 +095 299095 096 093 011 00
010930 1900N 06628W 6967 02781 9621 +103 +096 296101 105 101 034 03
011000 1901N 06626W 6970 02719 9569 +100 +100 289108 116 111 058 03
011030 1903N 06625W 6972 02642 9479 +115 +115 284115 124 132 056 00
011100 1904N 06623W 6996 02536 9399 +122 //// 269120 129 146 030 05
011130 1906N 06622W 6954 02524 9288 +145 +136 260098 114 125 007 03
011200 1908N 06621W 6970 02447 9200 +177 +145 252061 089 064 002 00
011230 1910N 06621W 6980 02397 9146 +198 +145 248027 047 058 003 03
011300 1912N 06622W 6962 02410 9126 +210 +132 277005 016 031 002 00
011330 1913N 06622W 6962 02408 9142 +192 +120 058017 022 024 001 00
$$
;

129 kt FL, 146 kt SFMR.

[CryHavoc]

[tweet removed]

Might be eyewall melding again. Maybe this is just how eyewall replacement is in top tier tropical cyclones experiencing good conditions and we haven't had good enough data on it until now.

"melding?" You mean like the two eyewalls are fusing together?

More or less. Traditional eyewall replacements involve the outer eyewall choking off inflow to the inner and then taking over as the dominant eyewall. The replacement cycle from yesterday and now this one look more like the eyewalls merge more seamlessly.

Might be enough fuel so that the lull between eyes is incredibly brief to the point of not being detectable. As the new eyewall contracts it immediately spins up to the previous core's max surface level winds.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Hopefully mine, but gotta finish undergrad first.

Seriously though, all the data we've been able to gather and continue to gather from Harvey and Irma is absolutely incredible. They're devastating now, but the results of these storms years down the road could include a much better understanding of tropical cyclones and corresponding improvements in all forms of their forecasting.

Amazing that you're only in undergrad. I took Met in undergrad and am highly impressed as to how nuanced your knowledge is. I take it you are focused on tropical weather? My curriculum was more geared toward synoptic systems.

Yep, I am very tropical and otherwise convectively focused.

Given where you are, I'm not surprised. Tropics and convection seems to be 3/4 of the weather in Houston.
(Now if only the tornado fanboys would realize that they don't have a monopoly on giant swirly things.)

[weathaguyry]

It's simply mind blowing to me that Irma has been able to maintain this kind of strength, does anyone know what the current ACE is?

[Centralflamama]

Anyone have any idea how the keys will hold up? We have friends down there(Key West) refusing to evacuate We are praying they come to their senses in the night.

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone have any idea how the keys will hold up? We have friends down there(Key West) refusing to evacuate We are praying they come to their senses in the night.

if a direct hit... similar to the leeward islands likely..

[tarheelprogrammer]

Do not know if this has been posted yet or not.

 https://twitter.com/WBTV_News/status/905551774752309252

[johngaltfla]

Anyone have any idea how the keys will hold up? We have friends down there(Key West) refusing to evacuate We are praying they come to their senses in the night.

Tell them to fill out their toe tags and put them on their big toes before the storm hits. That's what a LEO friend of mine used to tell locals that threatened to ride out the storm.

[gboudx]

It's simply mind blowing to me that Irma has been able to maintain this kind of strength, does anyone know what the current ACE is?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118628&p=2631437#p2631248

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070123
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 23 20170907
011400 1915N 06622W 6980 02382 9145 +183 +120 061021 024 025 002 03
011430 1916N 06621W 6971 02390 9127 +202 +103 096020 021 026 003 00
011500 1917N 06620W 6964 02395 9122 +205 +105 124032 038 037 002 00
011530 1918N 06618W 6974 02390 9136 +196 +096 139055 063 055 003 03
011600 1920N 06617W 6966 02421 9178 +175 +102 144081 092 072 001 03
011630 1921N 06616W 6975 02457 9235 +163 +106 142117 122 099 001 03
011700 1922N 06614W 6951 02540 9303 +130 +120 146144 158 126 000 03
011730 1923N 06613W 6986 02574 9423 +113 +101 146161 163 131 000 03
011800 1924N 06612W 6957 02668 9475 +119 +083 143161 163 126 000 03
011830 1925N 06611W 6978 02696 9541 +107 +093 140151 158 121 000 03
011900 1926N 06610W 6965 02754 9592 +102 +087 138145 148 116 000 00
011930 1927N 06609W 6967 02786 9630 +103 +089 137139 142 123 006 00
012000 1928N 06608W 6970 02812 9671 +095 +093 138134 137 121 005 00
012030 1929N 06607W 6976 02831 9713 +087 +087 139131 133 113 023 00
012100 1930N 06606W 6955 02889 9737 +097 +097 138120 129 107 023 00
012130 1931N 06605W 6967 02887 9756 +099 +099 139117 121 102 017 00
012200 1932N 06603W 6979 02896 9778 +102 +102 141112 118 099 015 00
012230 1933N 06602W 6970 02922 9817 +091 +091 137117 118 096 012 00
012300 1934N 06601W 6963 02949 9819 +089 //// 134115 117 091 006 01
012330 1935N 06600W 6970 02955 9845 +086 +085 134114 115 087 004 00
$$
;


163 kt FL, 131 kt SFMR this pass. Notice the hints of the aborted outer wind maxima. Pressure 912mb.

[1900hurricane]

It's simply mind blowing to me that Irma has been able to maintain this kind of strength, does anyone know what the current ACE is?

How much ACE has this Hurricane made? Should probably be within the top 5 for Atlantic hurricanes based on this value seeing that Ivan, Frances, Georges and Igor didn't become as strong as far east or hold such power.

00Z best track update pushes us up to 39.6825 units and with plenty of life still left. Perfect verification of the NHC's current intensity forecast would push Irma to the top in the NAtl and second globally all-time, behind only Ioke '06.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the latest data, I would probably drop the winds a bit to 150 kt, unless a dropsonde comes in to support the current intensity.