ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6081 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:24 pm

PTPatrick wrote:I would expect the Doppler estimates aren't that greate esp lake Charles because it's further away...I believe they are less accurate in extreme events. The area around league city may well be over 3 ft range now, but I haven't seen an official report of near 50, yet.

But I would add... the rain gauges in those areas are now likely non functional, inundated.

Edit: nws tweeted 12 minutes ago A list showing Santa Fe at 25 inches


Yes I saw that from the NWS office that has Santa Fe at 25 inches but for a 24 hour period only.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6082 Postby Happy Pelican » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:26 pm

This is all just beyond devastating. The real tragedy will be in a few weeks when storm victims begin the recovery process and sadly realize, the storm was the easy part and the recovery is the disaster after the disaster. Anyone affected may reach out to me anytime for recovery advice. Took us over 4 years to recovery from Sandy and my heart is breaking for everyone... :(
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6083 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:27 pm

PTPatrick wrote:I would expect the Doppler estimates aren't that greate esp lake Charles because it's further away...I believe they are less accurate in extreme events. The area around league city may well be over 3 ft range now, but I haven't seen an official report of near 50, yet.

But I would add... the rain gauges in those areas are now likely non functional, inundated.

Edit: nws tweeted 12 minutes ago A list showing Santa Fe at 25 inches


Probably so. Looks like they're starting to get a lot of flood warnings over that way now. According to radar overlay, flood warnings in Cameron, Calcasieu, Jefferson Davis Parishes over to Orange/Jefferson Counties as well. Besides whatever piles on for Houston and whatever happens along the immediate coast - I think Galveston over to New Iberia will probably be the next areas to flood as the rivers fill and water continues to pile up in the NW Gulf.


https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... h&loop=yes
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6084 Postby KBBOCA » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:30 pm

Happy Pelican wrote:This is all just beyond devastating. The real tragedy will be in a few weeks when storm victims begin the recovery process and sadly realize, the storm was the easy part and the recovery is the disaster after the disaster. Anyone affected may reach out to me anytime for recovery advice. Took us over 4 years to recovery from Sandy and my heart is breaking for everyone... :(


So thankful folks like you are offering to help share advice & support.

What's doubly tragic is that there are so many families in Houston who relocated there from NOLA after Katrina. This has got to be just horrid for them. Two catastrophic disasters in 12 years.... My heart breaks for such families.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6085 Postby artist » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:31 pm

KBBOCA wrote:Wow, look at all the boats out to help rescue folks in Dickinson!

 https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/901887398061031424



That's where that nursing home was.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6086 Postby curtadams » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:32 pm

A reminder not to drive into floodwaters https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/901838993498800130
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6087 Postby Nederlander » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:35 pm

Here are a couple of photos from my neighborhood earlier in Nederland/Port Arthur.

Image
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Last edited by Nederlander on Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6088 Postby Meteorcane » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:36 pm

NDG wrote:
Sanibel wrote:
NDG wrote:Any pictures from the Galveston County near Santa Fe where radar estimates nearly 50" of rain has fallen?




Is that confirmed? Maps were showing 25 inches for that area just a few hours ago...


Both Lake Charles Radar and Houston radar show nearly 50" of rain since Thursday.



Single-pol storm totals are probably inflated because they are purely using a tropical Z-R when some of the more intense precip yesterday was more convective in nature (e.g. containing large drops from melting hail and graupel) rather than the warm-rain process precip usually associated with tropical cyclones. I would trust the Dual-pol storm total (e.g. the digital storm total product on radar scope) more in this situation since it can use ZDR, KDP estimators.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6089 Postby galveston-d » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:38 pm

Steve wrote:
Probably so. Looks like they're starting to get a lot of flood warnings over that way now. According to radar overlay, flood warnings in Cameron, Calcasieu, Jefferson Davis Parishes over to Orange/Jefferson Counties as well. Besides whatever piles on for Houston and whatever happens along the immediate coast - I think Galveston over to New Iberia will probably be the next areas to flood as the rivers fill and water continues to pile up in the NW Gulf.


https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... h&loop=yes


We have been extremely fortunate on the Mid Island of Galveston - no bad flooding yet on the Seawall side. And I flood with the least bit of rain! I know that may not be the case in the days to come. Keeping my fingers crossed. We have had less than 3 inches! The small airport here report just over 5 this morning. I am heartbroken for my near by family, friends, and clients who have not been so fortunate. The sun was even shining a few minutes ago. I am watching NHC, local news, Tropical Tidbits very closely.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6090 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:43 pm

Any break Houston might have gotten is coming to an end as precip filling back in.

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6091 Postby meriland29 » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:44 pm

Poor Texas, I knew that the winds were just the start. I can't believe how slow this system is and how it is still hanging on a impressive strength despite being just over land for about 2 days. The fact that this storm is expected to produce 20-30'' of ADDITIONAL rainfall is mind boggling, and scary considering the rising death toll in Houston and the result in Dickinson, etc...just crazy
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6092 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:45 pm

This looks to be just about off shore. The center that I can pick out looks to be somewhere between Victoria and Port Lavaca
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6093 Postby meriland29 » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:45 pm

That brings me to another question, does anyone have a map of the current rain totals from this storm ? (not pending rainfall) who is getting the worst of the rain totals ?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6094 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:49 pm

This storm is basically Allison meets Katrina
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6095 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:50 pm

Yeah galveston-D, y'all have been fortunate for your proximity to everything bad that has happened. Galveston was like a small wedge of better news into an area otherwise hurting. Along the coast to your south, then to your northeast, north and west aren't doing as well. I'm sure there are probably pockets behind you that did bad.

FWIW, HRRR 19Z (so I think valid 2pm CDT) doesn't look particularly good for the Houston Metro for the next 18 hours. You have the double barrel of the band that looked like it was going to rotate across sort of filling in on a bad angle of approach on radar (see below) coupled with a push down on Harvey from the north as well as some reaction to the shortwave trough just into Western Missouri which is the first link.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/wv-animated.gif

Here's the radar loop showing the band filling in. Mostly greens and yellows so far (some orange now).

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... x&loop=yes

The HRRR shows it's likely to train.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

And its depiction of rainfall rates into the teens in the next 18 hours for Houston over to just west of Lake Charles around Sulphur, LA. Notice that East/West oriented band. Gonna get only worse if this verifies.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300
Last edited by Steve on Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:57 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6096 Postby gboudx » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:50 pm

Latest update from Jeff Lindner:

Catastrophic flooding continues across Harris and nearby surrounding counties.

Center of Harvey is nearly stationary north of Victoria with strong rain bands continuing to produce excessive rainfall over the region.

Recent rainfall of 1-3 inches has occurred especially in the ESE part of Harris County.

Storm totals are approaching 15-20 inches across nearly all of Harris County for the last 24 hours and 25-30 inches in the last 36 hours over the SE part of Harris County.

Massive record or near record flooding is occurring on nearly every watershed in Harris County.

Brays Bayou in Meyerland is nearing its 100-yr water surface elevation and many watersheds have reached or exceeded their 500-yr water surface elevation.

Many thousands of homes are currently floods some with very deep inundation
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6097 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:50 pm

meriland29 wrote:That brings me to another question, does anyone have a map of the current rain totals from this storm ? (not pending rainfall) who is getting the worst of the rain totals ?


Posted earlier by Jeff Lindner

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6098 Postby artist » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:51 pm

meriland29 wrote:Poor Texas, I knew that the winds were just the start. I can't believe how slow this system is and how it is still hanging on a impressive strength despite being just over land for about 2 days. The fact that this storm is expected to produce 20-30'' of ADDITIONAL rainfall is mind boggling, and scary considering the rising death toll in Houston and the result in Dickinson, etc...just crazy

http://www.weather.gov/hgx/
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6099 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:52 pm

Was just looking at some gauges on Buffalo Bayou and not only are they in the major category, but they are way over the record flood stage. In many locations by quite a lot. I dont know how far back records go here but this is more in tune with a 1000 year flood I would guess

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=hgx
Last edited by ScottNAtlanta on Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6100 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:52 pm

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