ATL: IRMA - Models

[Frank P]

120 there's the turn ...damn... maybe NW now

correction still looks WNW... my eyes are failing me...

[AxaltaRacing24]

Wow

[SouthFLTropics]

WOW

[stormreader]

Wow

Critical mass there. The turn..... Let's see.

[SouthDadeFish]

The GFS is giving Irma basically a perfect environment to intensify. Very warm waters, a moist atmosphere, low shear, and even a strong upper-level outflow jet due to the trough to the north. I'm not saying I buy the sub 900 mb pressures, but if this avoids land interaction, look out.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Anyone think sub 900 mbs is a possibility like the models are showing?

[Blown Away]

18z GFS absolutely insane run... To unreal even for the movies... My goodness...

[SouthFLTropics]

Historic and Catastrophic

[Aric Dunn]

there is the low forming over the MS valley and dropping SW .. but look at that huge polar outflow jet ! thats why the GFS bombs this thing out .. besides the heat content
well that low is farther north.. over the ohio valley.. interesting..
.

[Big Easy Breeze]

I don't think so unless it gets in the extreme SE Gulf around the Keys and comes up on FL. I think what Aric alluded to was a potential suspect cutoff down in the lower MS Valley. But the way the winds are at 200 and 250, I don't really think Irma could get very far in the Gulf unless it was really far south or if it pinched off that edge near the keys if the JMA/NAVGEM/CMC are right with the little hook up and in.

Less we forget Katrina? Also, as we all know with a deepening Hurricane, it will have an influence on the high pressure over its top.

Looking at the official NHC track, the track has Irma tracking closely along the northern coast of Cuba through day 5 from today. Beyond that it is a HUGE guess.

Bottom line; after 5 days, no one is off the hook.

I hear you. I just disagree in this case.

Noting to disagree with. My point is; beyond 5 days, too much conjecture. The NHC only goes out to 5 days. Beyond that, who knows and their really is nothing to factually state as being remotely accurate.

[Frank P]

H132 there's the turn into S FL

[AxaltaRacing24]

WOW

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS:

[Steve]

895 Cat 5 coming in at 120. Still coming up at 891mb at 132 hours. That's late Saturday night/early Sunday morning.

120
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 418&fh=120

132
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 418&fh=132

2017 is looking like a year that's going to down on the list with some of the most memorable seasons we've seen.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Ummmmmmmm it can stop now.

[Frank P]

ridge to north still looks strong..

[SFLcane]

My lord!!!

[ronjon]

Key Largo...shades of Bogie and Becall.

[Sanibel]

Such a small degree of difference between west and east coast landfalls as to make it a harrowing last second call on something you don't have time for at the last second...


This is going to be an intense series of GFS runs with huge outcome over the next few days...

[Aric Dunn]

ridge to north still looks strong..

it will be steering more in the upper levels.. that low is present again just farther north this time..