ATL: IRMA - Models

[Mouton]

Last few frames near cuba, storm looks like in creeping mode around 79/80W. Looks a tad north of the NHC plan for 5 days. Also, appears to be turning NW in past few frames. So, where does that move stop, at 305 or 360? Looks like no time over Cuba which means a record storm for SE Florida and the lower Keys.

[SouthFLTropics]

Goodbye Dade County

[Frank P]

H138 moving NNW, maybe up the spine again?

[MetroMike]

Up the spine again?

[Alyono]

Anyone think sub 900 mbs is a possibility like the models are showing?

may actually be more likely than not if it avoids mountains

[caneseddy]

Goodbye Dade County

Say goodbye to almost all of South Florida on that run...that's an insane run...my lord

[Kingarabian]

This is just terrible from the GFS man

[AutoPenalti]

and yet another west shift.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This is just terrible from the GFS man

This is what I was saying earlier. Slight north shifts like these short term are a disaster for FL.

[lando]

Goodbye Dade County

Loss of life would be rather large with Miami and fort lauderdale on the western side

[NDG]

Is going to be a slow track north with that mid level ridging over the Great Lakes.

[Hurricane Andrew]

00z runs tonight with Gonzo/balloon data are going to be important...still at the D5-D7 range, so nothing is set in stone.

[Langinbang187]

Anyone think sub 900 mbs is a possibility like the models are showing?

may actually be more likely than not if it avoids mountains

Which is still a pretty big "if" at this point. Going to be an interesting couple days.

[stormreader]

Last few frames near cuba, storm looks like in creeping mode around 79/80W. Looks a tad north of the NHC plan for 5 days. Also, appears to be turning NW in past few frames. So, where does that move stop, at 305 or 360? Looks like no time over Cuba which means a record storm for SE Florida and the lower Keys.

Very important points. The speed of the storm at that time, the exact angle taken in the turn. Important not only for affects of storm from this run, but possibly for trends from later runs.

[Kingarabian]

Anyone think sub 900 mbs is a possibility like the models are showing?

may actually be more likely than not if it avoids mountains

Wasn't the GFS modeling Irma to be in the 920's now, east of the islands? GFS likely is 20-30mb too low. Not that it makes a difference impact wise, anyways.

[ronjon]

Headed for the big Lake O.

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS is just north of what used to be dade county

[RL3AO]

Anyone think sub 900 mbs is a possibility like the models are showing?

may actually be more likely than not if it avoids mountains

It's hard not to think of the Labor Day hurricane when you watch that model run. It's happened before.

[Kingarabian]

Is going to be a slow track north with that mid level ridging over the Great Lakes.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/2RPMcs7.png[img]

Maybe in line for some historic flooding then.

[SouthFLTropics]

Right over Lake Okeechobee. Goodbye Broward, Palm Beach, Martin, St. Lucie. Disaster of EPIC proportions