ATL: IRMA - Models

[gatorcane]

18Z HWRF shifts north. May not landfall in Cuba like previous runs:

[ronjon]

Hey Ronjon-

What might the Tampa Bay Area see with a track up the spine?
Still possible for it to run up the West Coast?

Sure think the jury's still out on that - ensembles from GFS and EC suggest a track up into the SE GOM. Need a couple more cycles of model runs to pin it down.

If the storm tracks east of us, winds blow offshore so no surge. Wind damage, heavy rainfall, and tornadoes would be our biggest threats.

[GTStorm]

So which models are doing the best with intensity?

[Alyono]

So which models are doing the best with intensity?

sadly, the HWRF and HMON

[RL3AO]

So which models are doing the best with intensity?

sadly, the HWRF and HMON

I did find out the HMON isn't coupled in the Atlantic. They had to disable it because it didn't test well.

[invest man]

00z runs tonight with Gonzo/balloon data are going to be important...still at the D5-D7 range, so nothing is set in stone.

Do you know what time that will run? IM

[SouthFLTropics]

00z runs tonight with Gonzo/balloon data are going to be important...still at the D5-D7 range, so nothing is set in stone.

Do you know what time that will run? IM

Starting about 11:30PM EDT with the GFS 00z

[WeatherHoon]

18Z GFS ensembles split into two camps:

https://s26.postimg.org/zbw5sya2x/gfs-e ... atl_24.png

...and they have been in these two camps for awhile strangely.

Scary run for SFL, but if you're looking for good news, at least there seemed to be a subtle early shift to the north and northwest. Perhaps the start of a trend? Or was it not a true shift, but rather just a speeding up of forward speed?

Not sure if slight adjustments to the W/NW would matter that much. It looks like it's coming down to where it stops its WEST/WNW movement before the straight shot North.

[TheStormExpert]

18Z GFS ensembles split into two camps:

Hmmm... Maybe more west or east shifts?

[capepoint]

When will they start getting some actual upper sampling from out west, to give the models a firm grasp of the cold front/trough?

[Steve]

HWRF snuck in the 90 hour solution. It's at:

22.25N 73.95W and 929mb so Cat 4. Let me interrupt this post to say that I haven't typed Cat 4 or Category 4 as much in my entire life as I have with Irma. You guys know I'm a call it as I see it poster. Bad news. Question is will HWRF again hit Cuba or will it ride a bit north this time and not "weaken" into the 940's or 950's.

While I was typing that in 96 hours popped up:
about 22.7N 75.2W @ 929mb

Last run at 96 Hours and 102 (to compensate for now)

96
21.1N 74.1N @ 934 (so a degree south and east)

120
21.9N 79.6W @ 952mb and over Cuba

^^^ Meant to type 102 but we can see the 120 benchmark change once it runs

102 Hours
12Z - 21.3N 75.5W

[MrJames]

Interesting split for the 18z GFS ensembles.

[caneseddy]

For everyone asking whether any new data made it to the 18z GFS, see below

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/904833383888453639

[bella_may]

Interesting split for the 18z GFS ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/irF3nN7.png

That's a pretty big west shift... was only a small percentage in the gulf a few days ago

[NJWxHurricane]

For everyone asking whether any new data made it to the 18z GFS, see below

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 3888453639

00Z not 18z

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/904852718749192192

[Steve]

LOL. I need to hook Levi up with a donation. I'll do that this week when I get back to work.

Come on HWRF. Keep running!

OOOO. Out to 111 which snuck in. Squeezed appearance as it only seems to get minimal interruption from Cuba so far. It's at 931 and may miss it which is terrible news down the line.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 418&fh=111

[SouthFLTropics]

111 hours...much more North than 12z

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF Trend

[Steve]

North trend in HWRF's case is the worst trend because it misses Cuba. 929 at 117. After seeing perhaps the most extreme flooding hurricane of our time last week and a Top 3 all time, we may well witness another Top 5 hurricane of all time. Impacts count more than anything, so 2017 will climb the ladder per HWRF if it stays north of Cuba.

Ugh.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

120 hours and Irma is doing all she can to squeeze through the Straights intact. I've never quite seen this depiction of a storm. I bet it's insane on simulated IR4.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 418&fh=120