1900hurricane wrote:This is a good point, and I certainly remain skeptical of the extreme solutions, but it's also worth pointing out that such pressures are actually in the realm of possibility this go around. Unlike with Noru and Kulap's <880 mb intensity solutions above 30ºN which could almost immediately be discounted, this is being modeled in one of the few areas in the NAtl which could support such a pressure, which makes it a little more difficult to determine how much the extreme solutions can be attributed to over-intensification bias.
It's hard to go below 900mb and usually guidance doesn't catch a system that does. But you're right though this is one of the few areas in the WHEM that can go that low so far north. Even if you take the more reserved Euro which was too high for Harvey even you are still looking at sub 920s which is no walk in the park in itself...
