ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

I remember one time, a long while back, seeing a TC intensify in the Glades.

I know tropical storm Fay did, and I believe Katrina may have.

Back around "88 or so, one organized (became a depression) while center coordinates were over Lake Ponchartrain (north of New Orleans) well off the coast. It slipped down SE and was upgraded to a tropical storm while in the coastal waters (Lake Borgne) actually a bay which is SE of New Orleans. Seems like storm had a "g" name.

Better organization of Harvey is apparent. Pretty good chance, I think, that pressure falls and wind increases to 60-65 mph before second landfall. Just a guess.

Oh man I remember that, we were fishing off the Chandelier Islands.. probably the worst waves I have ever experienced in my life coming back in that system... before my tracking days obviously..

[xironman]

REcon is supposed to fly today.. they probably will cancel the first flight since its sitting on the coast.

Is there a practical reason they wouldn't fly over the coast or is it a political jurisdiction thing?

Much more turbulence over land. Safety of the crew.

[Snowman67]

I really don't like the way the storms are building just to the north of the COC.

[stormreader]

Pressure is falling near Matagorda. down to 996 mb..

Getting down below that 997 mb (29.44) threshold. Often times that number signals a stronger tropical storm (just ballpark approximation). Fact that it is falling is concerning, and I do think that even after the core was so hallowed out, you do see storms firing now near the center, and there will be some intensification in the next 36 hours or so.

[Frank P]

REcon is supposed to fly today.. they probably will cancel the first flight since its sitting on the coast.

yep. oops i was reading the flight for TD 10 ..

well the way it looks now, and if it can get out in the GOM just a little more I'd be shocked it they don't go in to investigate!

[artist]

Bush Airport closed til Thurs.
Edit: FAA says it is closed now indefinitely.
Houston Texans donating $1 million to a united Way

[tolakram]

17:30z

[xironman]

17:30z
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/BJ8krfq.png[/img]

Almost looks like it is moving east.

[Stormcenter]

Looks to me like he's definitely on the move, I would say ESE to my untrained eyes.


https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... quality=92

[stormreader]

17:30z
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/BJ8krfq.png[/img]

Great pic showing the storms firing just north of COC,just up the coast from Matagorda Bay. Some consolidation near center apparent as it slips back out over the water. Those storms also signal that when the storm makes its second landfall, you will see much greater T-storm activity near that center---not just east, but west too, as the storms will be rotating around that newly consolidated center.

[aperson]

Total -removed- here, what are the chances that runs like latest HRRR that push the CoC east rapidly validate? This seems like the only not catastrophic outcome for Houston at this point

[Airboy]

Why is it building storms north/nw of the COC, the side that is on land, and not on the sides that are over water? Should it not be more normal if it was the opposite?

[artist]

ABC News @ABC
·
2h
Houston Mayor: Food, clothing, diapers, medical supplies and volunteers needed for
#Harvey victims; working w/Red Cross, business partner

It is said sweats are needed because of dealing with being wet

[Frank P]

Looks to me like he's definitely on the move, I would say ESE to my untrained eyes.


https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... quality=92

Looks like ese to me too...

[artist]

Gallery furniture shelters are at capacity.


And now the FAA has said Bush Airport will not open on Thurs. both are closed until further notice

[artist]

HCSOTexas @HCSOTexas
·
2h
IMPORTANT: If you are awaiting rescue, hang a towel or sheet prominently so we can find you. Adresses are hard to spot.

[tolakram]

Pressure continues to drop.

1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 28
Location: 28.6°N 95.8°W
Moving: ESE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[stormreader]

17:30z
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/BJ8krfq.png[/img]

Great pic showing the storms firing just north of COC,just up the coast from Matagorda Bay. Some consolidation near center apparent as it slips back out over the water. Those storms also signal that when the storm makes its second landfall, you will see much greater T-storm activity near that center---not just east, but west too, as the storms will be rotating around that newly consolidated center.

Good chance too, that later this afternoon, you'll see some training or lines of squalls developing east of the emerging center in the gulf. These should come onshore over Galveston and head north.

[PTPatrick]

If you are looking for green shoots of hope they are not to be found in the 12z GFS or NAM HIRES precip runs. Tonight looks to be a long night around houston, into tomorrow morning. Rain certainly isnt letting up there today like I thought it might. IN any case, still no major signs that another deluge will come all at once like the other night, but it all bears close watching. Nam wants to hit it with from the onshore than swing a ball of major precip back over it on the west side of the center as it passess... a 1 - 2 punch.

[Sanibel]

I think it has just enough ocean to maintain energy...