ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

Irma already much larger than Hurricane Andrew, and I believe Irma may still have a chance / be forecast to grow in size? (I'm not an expert!)

 https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/905838909816492032

[newtotex]

Palm Beach County is large. Impact to coastal area (east of 95) will be different from areas further west... Also depends on type of house, etc. Need more detail for folks to be able this type of question.

Something that is going to be interesting to watch if it moves up through Dade/Broward/PB Counties is what is going to happen with Lake Okeechobee. It can have it's own storm surge, which has been a problem in the past

Heard yesterday that they are pumping lots of water out of the lake for that purpose. What year was it a hurricane went to the lake and dumped so much rain it over-flowed its banks and killed a lot of people in Belle Glade or somewhere near the lake?

I believe it was 1928?

[KBBOCA]

Florida has set up some emergency numbers - especially important for those who are having problems evacuating Monroe County / the Keys:


First tweet is for MONROE county only
 https://twitter.com/FLGovScott/status/905791249524903937




This is the number for other areas:
 https://twitter.com/FLGovScott/status/905807070863220736

[ronyan]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071703
AF305 1711A IRMA HDOB 49 20170907
165400 2130N 07104W 6967 03103 //// +086 //// 054079 080 054 004 01
165430 2128N 07103W 6966 03101 9994 +089 //// 057080 081 054 004 01
165500 2127N 07102W 6967 03092 9985 +092 +092 056080 081 054 005 00
165530 2126N 07101W 6962 03100 //// +093 //// 053081 081 055 004 01
165600 2125N 07059W 6963 03091 9977 +093 //// 053082 083 054 004 01
165630 2124N 07058W 6968 03080 9981 +093 //// 051084 085 056 004 01
165700 2123N 07057W 6967 03084 9977 +096 +096 054083 084 057 007 00
165730 2122N 07056W 6967 03068 9958 +096 //// 056084 085 056 006 01
165800 2121N 07055W 6971 03059 9948 +097 +093 056089 089 058 007 00
165830 2120N 07054W 6966 03061 9937 +098 +086 055090 090 059 006 00
165900 2119N 07052W 6966 03055 9928 +099 +092 056091 092 060 006 00
165930 2118N 07051W 6966 03045 9927 +096 +094 055092 093 062 008 00
170000 2117N 07050W 6966 03044 9924 +094 +093 053094 095 063 006 00
170030 2116N 07049W 6969 03031 9918 +095 +095 052097 098 065 008 00
170100 2115N 07048W 6967 03027 9913 +098 +098 050095 098 066 008 00
170130 2113N 07047W 6964 03021 9915 +101 +101 050097 101 066 008 03
170200 2112N 07046W 6972 03002 9909 +095 +095 053103 103 070 011 00
170230 2111N 07044W 6971 02990 9887 +098 +098 051104 105 071 010 00
170300 2110N 07043W 6969 02987 9869 +094 +094 049108 110 075 011 00
170330 2109N 07042W 6971 02971 9873 +092 +092 047111 111 077 018 00
$$
;

[ronyan]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071713
AF305 1711A IRMA HDOB 50 20170907
170400 2108N 07041W 6979 02944 9854 +096 +096 049108 114 079 024 00
170430 2107N 07040W 6956 02960 9833 +109 +109 051107 111 078 033 00
170500 2106N 07039W 6955 02947 9821 +112 +112 058107 112 085 023 00
170530 2105N 07038W 6979 02906 9781 +121 +121 061098 109 084 020 00
170600 2104N 07037W 6960 02917 9746 +127 +127 052093 096 088 010 00
170630 2103N 07036W 6963 02893 9723 +129 +129 049096 097 091 007 00
170700 2102N 07034W 6964 02882 //// +121 //// 053106 108 096 004 01
170730 2101N 07033W 6972 02852 9689 +116 //// 054111 112 096 005 01
170800 2100N 07032W 6967 02836 9665 +116 +114 053113 115 099 005 01
170830 2059N 07031W 6972 02803 9646 +113 //// 055121 123 118 016 05
170900 2058N 07030W 6966 02781 9630 +115 +115 053123 124 120 019 03
170930 2057N 07029W 6977 02738 9607 +117 +117 053123 126 102 048 03
171000 2056N 07028W 6960 02719 9565 +119 +119 052131 134 /// /// 03
171030 2055N 07027W 6973 02662 9512 +123 +123 054138 144 103 068 03
171100 2054N 07026W 6955 02636 9450 +124 //// 057136 145 /// /// 05
171130 2053N 07025W 6971 02570 9389 +139 //// 058114 130 135 016 01
171200 2053N 07024W 6964 02541 //// +143 //// 059097 105 133 006 05
171230 2051N 07023W 6980 02495 9254 +159 //// 062079 094 117 000 05
171300 2050N 07022W 6963 02483 9234 +169 +159 065053 069 055 001 03
171330 2049N 07021W 6962 02472 9228 +163 +157 072033 046 050 003 00
$$
;

[dukeblue219]

What is recon saying? Satellite looks ragged.

I'm not sure "ragged" is the word I'd use personally, but in any event, recon just passed through the eye NW-to-SE. On the way in from the NW the SFMR estimated surface winds of 135 knots (155mph) in that quadrant, and the central pressure appears to be stable in the low 920s (the raw measurement gets adjusted). We'll get a vortex data message from them in 10-15 minutes that should give more definitive figures.

[ronyan]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071723
AF305 1711A IRMA HDOB 51 20170907
171400 2047N 07021W 6982 02440 9216 +171 +154 066024 029 037 001 00
171430 2045N 07020W 6961 02464 9216 +166 +156 059016 023 032 000 03
171500 2044N 07019W 6971 02451 9212 +169 +156 031005 012 030 001 03
171530 2043N 07017W 6962 02455 9198 +180 +148 159004 007 028 001 00
171600 2043N 07015W 6976 02439 9194 +187 +145 194013 019 031 001 03
171630 2042N 07013W 6961 02466 9199 +190 +138 208033 042 048 002 00
171700 2041N 07012W 6966 02483 9228 +183 +141 212062 071 065 003 00
171730 2040N 07010W 6969 02515 9272 +175 +145 211085 092 087 001 03
171800 2040N 07009W 6978 02549 9332 +159 +148 210109 118 102 002 00
171830 2039N 07007W 6970 02617 9414 +143 +131 206126 128 108 003 03
171900 2038N 07006W 6974 02663 9481 +128 +110 205125 127 102 002 00
171930 2038N 07005W 6959 02717 9508 +137 +110 205119 123 102 001 03
172000 2037N 07004W 6971 02737 9554 +129 +115 204114 119 098 000 03
172030 2036N 07003W 6962 02777 9585 +129 +102 205113 114 093 000 03
172100 2035N 07002W 6970 02797 9623 +122 +109 205108 112 088 001 00
172130 2034N 07001W 6970 02822 9653 +114 +113 204102 104 083 001 01
172200 2033N 07000W 6970 02842 9674 +119 +106 205099 102 079 003 00
172230 2032N 06959W 6969 02859 9703 +119 +119 205096 097 076 006 00
172300 2031N 06958W 6964 02884 9723 +114 +110 204092 095 073 008 00
172330 2030N 06958W 6964 02900 9733 +116 +112 203090 091 069 009 00
$$
;

[ronyan]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071733
AF305 1711A IRMA HDOB 52 20170907
172400 2029N 06957W 6967 02908 9747 +119 +119 203088 090 069 006 00
172430 2028N 06956W 6970 02919 9762 +116 +115 204085 086 072 006 00
172500 2027N 06955W 6967 02933 9776 +118 +116 204082 085 075 007 00
172530 2026N 06954W 6964 02946 9787 +122 +122 206078 079 079 016 00
172600 2025N 06952W 6965 02952 9807 +122 +122 216073 078 082 018 00
172630 2024N 06951W 6966 02959 9825 +121 +121 224076 080 080 029 00
172700 2022N 06950W 6975 02958 9838 +122 +122 229078 082 082 028 00
172730 2021N 06949W 6963 02981 9851 +120 +120 232079 081 085 027 00
172800 2020N 06948W 6967 02989 9872 +119 +119 224083 084 082 029 00
172830 2019N 06947W 6950 03025 9862 +121 +121 221078 083 076 013 00
172900 2017N 06945W 6969 03006 9860 +120 +120 221076 077 078 010 00
172930 2016N 06944W 6973 03015 9872 +119 +118 220074 074 076 008 00
173000 2015N 06943W 6964 03034 9889 +116 +116 220074 075 074 008 00
173030 2014N 06942W 6969 03034 9916 +111 +111 218073 074 072 008 00
173100 2013N 06941W 6968 03045 9939 +108 +108 215071 074 070 014 00
173130 2012N 06940W 6953 03071 9951 +110 +110 217076 079 074 026 03
173200 2010N 06939W 6974 03046 9963 +111 +111 209073 077 058 042 00
173230 2009N 06938W 6970 03057 9983 +099 +099 201081 082 062 027 00
173300 2008N 06937W 6963 03074 9993 +092 +092 197078 080 063 025 00
173330 2007N 06936W 6965 03075 9991 +090 +090 196074 078 060 022 03
$$
;

[ronyan]

Resumed posting recon, not sure what quad they are in however.

[dukeblue219]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 17:32Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 26
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 17:15:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°43'N 70°16'W (20.7167N 70.2667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 77 statute miles (123 km) to the SE (133°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,413m (7,917ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 135kts (~ 155.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 57° at 145kts (From the ENE at ~ 166.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 922mb (27.23 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,054m (10,020ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast, SE
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 152kts (~ 174.9mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) from the flight level center at 16:04:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 185° at 6kts (From the S at 7mph)

[Michele B]

Just East for Dad! Pays 3 times what I do for homeowners insurance as a result.

What did your dad do to "over-engineer" his roof??

I did not know they did that is it Precast with pitch? Or Flat

I;m not sure. I can ask him later tonight. If you really want to know, PM me!
They were somewhere near Royal Palm Blvd - JUST west of 441.

[KBBOCA]

Another MODEL hit on Miami. 12Z HWRF.

THIS IS NOT THE NHC official forecast. Just an example that multiple models continue to show Miami and SE Florida as being in EXTREME danger.

 https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs/status/905844584311382017

[znel52]

What is recon saying? Satellite looks ragged.

I'm not sure "ragged" is the word I'd use personally, but in any event, recon just passed through the eye NW-to-SE. On the way in from the NW the SFMR estimated surface winds of 135 knots (155mph) in that quadrant, and the central pressure appears to be stable in the low 920s (the raw measurement gets adjusted). We'll get a vortex data message from them in 10-15 minutes that should give more definitive figures.

Agreed doesn't look ragged at all to me. Looks like a beast of a storm.

[xironman]

Don't know if it has been mentioned but there is a double max on recon, hence the higher pressure.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Surprised winds in NW are down to C4 levels...NE likely still a C5.

[dukeblue219]

Surprised winds in NW are down to C4 levels

Based on what? They literally just measured 135kt/155mph surface winds (ok, estimated with the SFMR) on the last pass through.

[ronyan]

000
URNT12 KNHC 071732
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 07/17:15:50Z
B. 20 deg 43 min N
070 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 2413 m
D. 135 kt
E. 315 deg 14 nm
F. 057 deg 145 kt
G. 315 deg 15 nm
H. 922 mb
I. 12 C / 3043 m
J. 19 C / 3054 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C22
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF305 1711A IRMA OB 26
MAX FL WIND 152 KT 060 / 18 NM 16:04:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 185 / 6 KT
;

[Hurricane Andrew]

Surprised winds in NW are down to C4 levels

Based on what? They literally just measured 155mph surface winds (ok, estimated with the SFMR) on the last pass through.

155mph is C4...157+ is C5.

[newtotex]

Surprised winds in NW are down to C4 levels...NE likely still a C5.

Isn't the NW/W side suppose to be the weakest in a hurricane with the NE/E being the strongest? I would think that having CAT4 winds in the NW shows the power of Irma?

[Soonercane]

Surprised winds in NW are down to C4 levels...NE likely still a C5.

NW quadrant has been strongest winds, looks like it is a Cat. 4 now as the NHC predicted a few days ago, but backed off on in recent forecasts. Could weaken enough to not be a major threat to Fl.