ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

my thoughts after further review, he is well off the coast, and that is not a mid level center but the LLC that is so pronounced in the GOM, and center totally devoid of any convection due to the dry air

Dry center...sub-tropical, you think??

Quite possibly, reminds me of a strong system that went south deep into the Yucatan on land from the BOC, then came back out and headed due north to the ngom, nothing but a big ole dry system that produce strong TS winds and a decent surge over here in Biloxi... can't remember its name though.. dang

Isidore '02. actually a good analog. these systems rarely stack again after spending so much time over land. Harvey will likely remain a rain threat and marginal surge threat due to coastal bathymetry but not likely a meaningful sustained wind threat.

[stormreader]

30 frame loop, speed it up.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=29&lon=-96&width=1000&height=800&zoom=2&type=Animation&numframes=30&quality=92

Well, I just don't like the looks of that well established circulation off the coast. I'm an untrained observer for sure, but it looks mid-level, and dry, as has been noted, but its tightly wound, and ominous.

[Callista]

By "pushing the water into Houston", do you mean a storm surge that reaches into Houston? Right now, the flooding there is being caused by the heavy rain. Harvey is sucking up water from the Gulf and raining it down again on Texas. Of course there is a storm surge, as there is with any hurricane, but the rain is the major cause of the flooding, as far as I can tell.

Does anybody have a current pressure and wind map of the area around Harvey? Not just the immediate area in Texas, but the surrounding states and Mexico. Maybe that would help us figure out which way those air masses might be moving.

[stormreader]

my thoughts after further review, he is well off the coast, and that is not a mid level center but the LLC that is so pronounced in the GOM, and center totally devoid of any convection due to the dry air

Dry center...sub-tropical, you think??

Quite possibly, reminds me of a strong system that went south deep into the Yucatan on land from the BOC, then came back out and headed due north to the ngom, nothing but a big ole dry system that produce strong TS winds and a decent surge over here in Biloxi... can't remember its name though.. dang

Remember that storm. It was a powerful hurricane that dove south over the Yucatan. Stayed there for days. Eventually came off, as a very large system with 65 mph winds or so. Seems like it was an "I" storm.

[wxman57]

Ok, I am not an expert and actually don't know a lot about weather, but just saw this post on another forum where someone is evidently speculating. My question for your experts - is something like this possible? There are a lot of little cities around the bay. I was born and raised there and have a lot of family and friends there. Is this something we should worry about?

Here's what they asked:

correct me if i'm wrong, but if it strengthens and takes the projected path when it starts moving north; would it not push the water in the gulf up past Galveston and into Houston? Would this not be worst case scenario? I don't see anyone talking about it, but if it strengthens enough over tonight and Tuesday before it turns north, this could happen?

No. Harvey is a poorly-organized tropical storm, not a Cat 4 hurricane. The wind field is more like a trof than a TS. Southerly winds averaging 15-25 mph would not create a storm surge. They'd build tides to 1-2 ft above normal. Even if Harvey did develop a well-defined circulation with a large area of 50 mph winds, the tides into Galveston bay would be perhaps 4 ft above normal - if the center moved inland west of GLS.

[Blinhart]

Dry center...sub-tropical, you think??

Quite possibly, reminds me of a strong system that went south deep into the Yucatan on land from the BOC, then came back out and headed due north to the ngom, nothing but a big ole dry system that produce strong TS winds and a decent surge over here in Biloxi... can't remember its name though.. dang

Isidore '02. actually a good analog. these systems rarely stack again after spending so much time over land. Harvey will likely remain a rain threat and marginal surge threat due to coastal bathymetry but not likely a meaningful sustained wind threat.

Is there any evidence there is major decoupling of the LLC and the MLC?

[WeatherCat]

Wide view of closed and flooded roads across SE Texas (as of 8/28 @ 4:20pm). No words.

[WeatherCat]

Wide view of closed and flooded roads across SE Texas (as of 8/28 @ 4:20pm). No words.

Sorry about that missing image ... apparently TinyPic deleted it seconds after providing me the link.

Anyone attempting to evacuate can visit drivetexas.org for information on road closures.

[stormreader]

By "pushing the water into Houston", do you mean a storm surge that reaches into Houston? Right now, the flooding there is being caused by the heavy rain. Harvey is sucking up water from the Gulf and raining it down again on Texas. Of course there is a storm surge, as there is with any hurricane, but the rain is the major cause of the flooding, as far as I can tell.

Does anybody have a current pressure and wind map of the area around Harvey? Not just the immediate area in Texas, but the surrounding states and Mexico. Maybe that would help us figure out which way those air masses might be moving.

In its current position, Harvey's onshore wind field is not going to allow any of those rivers that drain SE Tex to empty their waters into the Gulf. The water is being held up there in the river system, because of the onshore wind flow. Makes the whole drainage situation worse.

[Snowman67]

Vortex shot southward off the TX coast in the last hour or so. Far as I can tell, that's Harvey's LLC. There appears to be a frontal boundary right on the TX coast. Almost like a warm front moving north between Houston & Galveston. Completely different rain pattern either side. Very odd.

It that's the case, what does that portend for the greater Houston area? Do you think that we are still at risk for 15 plus inches of additional rain over the next few days?

Thanks

[wxman57]

Vortex shot southward off the TX coast in the last hour or so. Far as I can tell, that's Harvey's LLC. There appears to be a frontal boundary right on the TX coast. Almost like a warm front moving north between Houston & Galveston. Completely different rain pattern either side. Very odd.

It that's the case, what does that portend for the greater Houston area? Do you think that we are still at risk for 15 plus inches of additional rain over the next few days?

Thanks

I don't know, it's a very odd situation. Lots of dry air wrapping around Harvey now. I wouldn't look for a big (15"+) rain event.

[Frank P]

Dry center...sub-tropical, you think??

Quite possibly, reminds me of a strong system that went south deep into the Yucatan on land from the BOC, then came back out and headed due north to the ngom, nothing but a big ole dry system that produce strong TS winds and a decent surge over here in Biloxi... can't remember its name though.. dang

Isidore '02. actually a good analog. these systems rarely stack again after spending so much time over land. Harvey will likely remain a rain threat and marginal surge threat due to coastal bathymetry but not likely a meaningful sustained wind threat.

thanks, I remember it being called Izzy for short, but when I looked it up I spelled is Isadore... off by one vowel.. but thanks again, I was racking my brain on this.. I remember sitting in the front yard by hwy 90, in a lawn chair catching some pretty good winds, and watching the new coliseum pier get destroyed by the surge and depositing a plethora of brand new treated lumber right on the beach in front of the house..... made a couple of hauls later that night no less helping clean up the beach..

[SoupBone]

Vortex shot southward off the TX coast in the last hour or so. Far as I can tell, that's Harvey's LLC. There appears to be a frontal boundary right on the TX coast. Almost like a warm front moving north between Houston & Galveston. Completely different rain pattern either side. Very odd.

It that's the case, what does that portend for the greater Houston area? Do you think that we are still at risk for 15 plus inches of additional rain over the next few days?

Thanks

I don't know, it's a very odd situation. Lots of dry air wrapping around Harvey now. I wouldn't look for a big (15"+) rain event.

I've been watching the dry air all day, but for some reason, it doesn't wrap it up. I know that's not likely correct, but in the visual at least, it never makes it into his core.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like feeder banks are starting to feed into the east side of the storm again. In my opinion looking MUCH better than earlier today.
I'll be curious to see what he does tonight.


https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... X&loop=yes

[wxman57]

I've been watching the dry air all day, but for some reason, it doesn't wrap it up. I know that's not likely correct, but in the visual at least, it never makes it into his core.

It won't wrap into the core, but the moisture feed is being cut off. May decrease the chance of very heavy rain in SE TX.

[SunnyThoughts]

Looks like feeder banks are starting to feed into the east side of the storm again. In my opinion looking MUCH better than earlier today.
I'll be curious to see what he does tonight.


https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... X&loop=yes

Yeah, I was observing a few mets earlier today discuss the fact that rain rates and coverage would probably increase tonight, just as they did last night in and around the Houston area.

[Snowman67]

Vortex shot southward off the TX coast in the last hour or so. Far as I can tell, that's Harvey's LLC. There appears to be a frontal boundary right on the TX coast. Almost like a warm front moving north between Houston & Galveston. Completely different rain pattern either side. Very odd.

It that's the case, what does that portend for the greater Houston area? Do you think that we are still at risk for 15 plus inches of additional rain over the next few days?

Thanks

I don't know, it's a very odd situation. Lots of dry air wrapping around Harvey now. I wouldn't look for a big (15"+) rain event.

Thanks Wxman57. Hopefully the dry air will suck some of the life out of it.

[Frank P]

Dang, that dry center is getting way off the coast, I don't think any model forecasted it to go that far out in the GOM.. really tight circulation.. cool to watch though...

[artist]

Hwy 225 and 146, near LaPorte, shelter indoors, some type of chemical spill.
Via KPRC. They will report more when they have it.

[Stormcenter]

Very good loop of Harvey.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider