ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

This is concerning but pretty much expected.
A persistent Theta-E Ridge over the Straits on approach to Miami.
Created by the Loop Current / Gulf Stream Heat Content.
Tropical Cyclones have a tendency to RI when they run into these.

Oh boy, I guess that explains the drops in pressure on some model runs...

[sponger]

Another visible loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_01&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

Granted it's just a visible loop there, but it looks like the eyewall is tightening in those frames.

Yep, pulling away from DR and starting to breathe better.

[Michele B]

Yup, ANOTHER model run with FL in its crosshairs... but just a bit further west.
12Z ECMWF:

Again, this is a MODEL, not the official NHC forecast track. But the ECMWF is about the most respected model there is. NHC won't be taking this lightly. The consensus of the best models seems to continue to show South FL in extreme danger, and the SW coast is not out of danger yet. All of FL peninsula is in the cone. MUST take Irma seriously:

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905857734746222593

Well, this is disconcerting.

And no disrespect meant to Ryan, as I respect his skills, but this is NOT "100 miles" difference. Another thing everyone should remember. FL is not that wide, and a small shift WILL make a huge difference in the end.

[tropicwatch]

Current Steering

[NDG]

I would expect the NHC to move the track westward but not far as west as the UKMET and ECMWF as we know they usually do not like to be too dramatic on a change, it will be gradual as long as the models keep shifting westward.
So I will think that they will have landfall near Key Largo then up just near or just west of Homestead western Dade County then into Lake Okeechobee through the Orlando area into the Jacksonville area or just west of them.
IMO.

[KBBOCA]

Please stay safe guys. I am on my way out to Alabama. God bless you guys. Stay safe!!

Safe travels, any may you too stay safe!
I think it's going to be really quiet in here the next day or two with so many evacuating / busy making final preps. One of the reasons I've been trying to hang around and post alot, because others may not have much time....

(With that said though, I need to sign off for 1 - 2 hours to fix dinner...!)

[dexterlabio]

Watching the news right now, I'm glad that people in Florida do know the drill when a storm of this proportion is coming their way.

[Kingarabian]

Seeing on CNN that Gas tankers are getting police escorts. Good news.

I feel Floridanians have learned from Harvey and have prepared a lot earlier. Hopefully causalities and damage will be at a minimum.

[Tinman]

Appreciate fuel trucks being escorted in. We are in Volusia County (Daytona area). Numerous stations are out of gas and Northbound I-95 is at a stand still. Local roads being heavily impacted by those trying to avoid traffic gridlock on Interstate. If you are evacuating from parts south, consider alternative methods, maybe even something as small as US 17 or 11. Good luck...

[Hurricane Andrew]

When are we expecting this EWRC to finish?

[HurricaneBelle]

It was nice of that Euro run to come in just before I decided to leave my office in Clearwater for the week. I had planned to go back and secure important files and documents in the interior, walled library room if things looked bad between now and Saturday, but I decided to do it now and save myself an hour round-trip back and save some precious gas.

[ava_ati]

One thing I am curious about from you Mets, with all of these Highs filling in behind the trough that is pulling out... what are the odds that this thing stalls on it's way north?

[Taylormae]

I hate to be that person but I have a question..
With such a shift west, I know landfall is not likely, what impacts will NWFL feel now?
On one graphic it looked to show TS force winds could extend out to us.
Also, I see after riding up FL it makes a jog to the NW. Is there any possibility it could make that NW jog sooner and go over the western panhandle of FL?
Just want to be prepared!

Thank you.

[tolakram]

I hate to be that person but I have a question..
With such a shift west, I know landfall is not likely, what impacts will NWFL feel now?
On one graphic it looked to show TS force winds could extend out to us.
Also, I see after riding up FL it makes a jog to the NW. Is there any possibility it could make that NW jog sooner and go over the western panhandle of FL?
Just want to be prepared!

Thank you.

The NHC has not shifted west, do not base anything off a single model run please. Anything small adjustment is still possible, too many unknowns, small shifts will still occur. Sorry, I'm being preachy, but I fear there's a lot of model watchers that do not clearly understand how to read them or how they are used in forecasting. BE PREPARED for the worst, be happy with better.

[HurricaneBelle]

I hate to be that person but I have a question..
With such a shift west, I know landfall is not likely, what impacts will NWFL feel now?
On one graphic it looked to show TS force winds could extend out to us.
Also, I see after riding up FL it makes a jog to the NW. Is there any possibility it could make that NW jog sooner and go over the western panhandle of FL?
Just want to be prepared!

Thank you.

First of all, it's just one model run. The Euro is the best of the models but it isn't 100% clairvoyant.

If the track shifts further west, then yes the FL panhandle will be closer to the center and the winds will be stronger there. But unless it goes into the Gulf and makes a direct hit on the panhandle, it should be manageable.

And yes, even a panhandle hit isn't out of the question, however unlikely, so prepare as best you can between now and then. Hurricane season is far from over and October is a prime month for Eastern Gulf storms so you should be prepped anyway.

[CryHavoc]

I hate to be that person but I have a question..
With such a shift west, I know landfall is not likely, what impacts will NWFL feel now?
On one graphic it looked to show TS force winds could extend out to us.
Also, I see after riding up FL it makes a jog to the NW. Is there any possibility it could make that NW jog sooner and go over the western panhandle of FL?
Just want to be prepared!

Thank you.

Don't bank on a single model shifting West. Nothing is certain yet. Anywhere inside the cone of impact has a possibility of an impact. Nothing is "unlikely" at this point. Irma could still recurve later than expected and heavily impact the W coast of Florida.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/FEMAspox/status/905871380562018304




Eileen Lainez ✔ @FEMAspox
#Irma: @FEMA has staged 12 million liters of water, 8 million meals, cots, blankets, generators, medical equip, infant care kits in Alabama
3:12 PM - Sep 7, 2017

[LarryWx]

12Z 'King" Euro run is very similar to Hurricane cat 4 "King" of 1950, not good for FL:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definite improvements on visual this afternoon on Irma... CDO looking less ragged. Eye placed nearly dead center in the CDO too, instead of being offset like yesterday due to shear. This could intensify again.

[CryHavoc]

One thing I am curious about from you Mets, with all of these Highs filling in behind the trough that is pulling out... what are the odds that this thing stalls on it's way north?

Unlikely, those highs will almost certainly not be in the right place come Saturday night/Sunday morning to directly impact Irma's move northward.

Disclaimer: Not a pro met.