ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

When are we expecting this EWRC to finish?

Hard to say at the moment, the inner core was exceptionally well organised until very recently, hence why this has remained a cat-5 for so long already, so this may take a little time to unwind itself, once it does though I expect the next bottom out to be near the 900mbs mark.

[supercane4867]

Spectacular view of the twin majors

[Taylormae]

I hate to be that person but I have a question..
With such a shift west, I know landfall is not likely, what impacts will NWFL feel now?
On one graphic it looked to show TS force winds could extend out to us.
Also, I see after riding up FL it makes a jog to the NW. Is there any possibility it could make that NW jog sooner and go over the western panhandle of FL?
Just want to be prepared!

Thank you.

The NHC has not shifted west, do not base anything off a single model run please. Anything small adjustment is still possible, too many unknowns, small shifts will still occur. Sorry, I'm being preachy, but I fear there's a lot of model watchers that do not clearly understand how to read them or how they are used in forecasting. BE PREPARED for the worst, be happy with better.

Yes, I am very much aware and understand how models and such work. Only wondering if it were to pan out what effects would be felt is all and as well about the jog NW - if there is anything to support it taking a NW turn earlier.
I take it all with a grain a salt. I know things can change and often do.
Always hoping for the best but prepared for the worst!

[KWT]

Definite improvements on visual this afternoon on Irma... CDO looking less ragged. Eye placed nearly dead center in the CDO too, instead of being offset like yesterday due to shear. This could intensify again.

Yeah still got a classic presentation at the moment, I think this will renew its downwards pressure trends once the EWRC sorts itself out, may see pressure raise to 930s in that time period (or equally it just may strengthen regardless!)

[KBBOCA]

Georgia Evacuation info, per the NWS Charleston forecast office:

 https://twitter.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/905873563084840961




 https://twitter.com/GeorgiaEMA/status/905873160658092033

[bella_may]

I've seen a lot of models turn this thing northwest after it makes landfall. My concern is this will go up the west coast without making landfall and then turn NW into the Panhandle. Not probable, but it is a possibility

[sponger]

[quote="supercane4867"]Spectacular view of the twin majors

I honestly was not aware Jose even made Cat3!

[tropicwatch]

Irma still a little north of forecast track.

[tolakram]

I've seen a lot of models turn this thing northwest after it makes landfall. My concern is this will go up the west coast without making landfall and then turn NW into the Panhandle. Not probable, but it is a possibility

If that path is inside the NHC cone then the answer is yes, if it's outside the cone then historically chances of the NHC being that wrong are low. Not zero, but low. Keep in mind the cone will shift if the current track shifts but it will also grow smaller since we are closer and closer to the arrival of Irma.

[Chris90]

In regards to the ERC, I'm wondering if it might be wrapping up now. Based on Irma's history, when she had amazing symmetry the ERCs didn't seem to affect her too much. Sometimes it looked like the eyewalls were just melding together and building an exceptionally strong core.
Her recent visibles show increasing symmetry again to my eyes, which is why I'm wondering if she's sorting herself out and getting ready for that run to the top 10 pressures list.

[BucMan2]

NDG- Hope all is well- My question is normally they wouldn't make a drastic shift but if this is legit, doesn't the NHC have to do something quickly as it is only approximately 72 hours to landfall?

[EquusStorm]

While it could bomb out again over the Bahamas, and with better ventilation and even warmer water this is quite possible, there are still two factors I'm gonna be watching. First is the storms own structural changes, as, if it gets stuck in a perpetual eyewall replacement, it will be held back much like Ike. No guarantee that will happen at all, of course, and it could just as easily perfect it's structure and go on to scary intensity again. Second is land interaction, as part of the circulation is raking over Hispaniola and won't get a break from this as it's also going to be affected by Cuba and eventually Florida. Cuba could be far enough away but it's still a possibility. There is far more land to affect it now than two days ago when it first peaked.

[JarrodB]

Well, I am steaming north on the ICW going about as fast as my little engine will push me. Hurricane winds look like they are unavoidable for my boat.

I should arrive in St Augustine tonite and will take a break, look at the models and try to make the best decision.

[NFLnut]

Well .. starting with the 00z UKMET and winding up with the 12z Euro, today has been nothing but solid blows to my gut! Anyone else wanna take a shot? What's next? Oh .. that's right; waiting until the 5:00pm NHC.

Up the spine? No bueno!

[Taylormae]

Thank you for the responses. I should have phrased some of my question a bit different. I fully understand models change quickly and not to bet on any 'change' as soon as it happens. If there's anything I've learned from lurking around here for nearly 2 years now I know as soon as one model changes one way the opposite happens to another!

Should have said "what impacts MAY we feel if it were to pan out" and not "will feel".

I think all of us up here are on the edge of ours seats so to speak - as I'm sure everyone near and far is!

The anxiety of never having faced a hurricane with children often gets me.

Thank you again! I truly appreciate every bit of input every one has to offer!

[weunice]

All of that shift is in the cone. People needed to be preparing in the cone already. Nothing changes, really, with that shift in the EURO. Most of Florida was there before and all of Florida is there after. Other than where the line might go changing some (and they will factor in more than just the Euro shift) the people who were in the cone before are, for the most part, still in it. Preparations should resume for those people.

[otowntiger]

Irma still a little north of forecast track.

That motion right there at this point COULD have significant impacts on track down the road- it is one reason I don't think the NHC will shift their track west hardly at all despite a model or two shifting west. This could counteract those models in my opinion.

[Hurrilurker]

Irma is maintaining an impressive structure while passing Hispaniola. I really thought that sequence was going to be more disruptive.

[tolakram]

Thank you for the responses. I should have phrased some of my question a bit different. I fully understand models change quickly and not to bet on any 'change' as soon as it happens. If there's anything I've learned from lurking around here for nearly 2 years now I know as soon as one model changes one way the opposite happens to another!

Should have said "what impacts MAY we feel if it were to pan out" and not "will feel".

I think all of us up here are on the edge of ours seats so to speak - as I'm sure everyone near and far is!

The anxiety of never having faced a hurricane with children often gets me.

Thank you again! I truly appreciate every bit of input every one has to offer!

What experience does anyone have with a category 4 or 5 hurricane moving just offshore or just inland? Wilma is really the last time something this big hit and it was not as strong. Parts of Florida were a disaster for months. Matthew last year was not as organized and further offshore. I guess what I'm asking is, what answer are you looking for here?

[Bocadude85]

I'm starting to get very concerned here in Boca Raton, my parents have a fairly large home that is covered with windows, we were able to cover all of the windows on the upper level and all east facing windows. My concern is they have a wall of sliding glass doors that runs the full length of the home(6 sets of sliders) that has not been covered. There is no plywood available and they feel that they will be ok without covering these windows. I'm not sure what to do at this point. They intended to stay in the home,they do have a small interior safe room but I still fear that they could be risking their lives.